Return of Daily LD Service

electricron wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:36 am

STrRedWolf wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 6:59 am ...or they factored in the COVID-19 limitations into that number.
We don't know how they calculate those numbers.

That's why I have avoided using post pandemic data, and why I will continue to do so.
But mark my words, the very people who say it is unfair to use FY2020 and FY2021 ridership data because of the pandemic ridership hit will be the first to include them when stating how large the ridership rises over the next few years, using these data as the low starting point with future ridership growth.. They will not see how unfair that will be a few years from now.

Much like global warmers like to start present heat up rates from the mini ice age from the 1950s and ignoring the earlier heat wave that caused the dust bowl from the 1930s. Partisans will always look for the data sets that reinforces their point of view in the best light possible. That's life, but it is just as unfair.

In the interest of defending my field of study, allow me to first address your criticisms of "global warmers." You may see a lot of temperature comparisons going back to the late 1950s; that is due to the availability of CO2 data from the Mauna Loa Observatory, which opened in 1958. Other comparisons are often to "pre-industrial levels," which makes sense, as that was before we began pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in large quantities. If you have other questions or doubts related to climate science or anthropogenic climate change I would be happy to answer them in PMs.

I agree with you that there are no datasets that make LD's market share look good. It doesn't perform well in the national transit marketplace. I would argue that it's a challenge of accessibility, frequency, and quality rather than some inherent issue with intercity rail itself. You can make the (correct) observation that the current LD system is broken, but to what end is this observation if you do not offer solutions? I would love for Cleveland to have an eastbound train to Erie that departs later than 6 AM, or for there to be more than three trains a week in each direction serving the entire city of Cincinnati, or for it to take less than 22 hours for me to reach Boston from Chicago. So would many prospective riders! It truly does boggle the mind that on a railfan forum, ostensibly a gathering of people who enjoy rail transit and wish to see it do well, there are so many people who are frankly so defeatist in their approach to the LDs or Amtrak as a concept. We know, by and large, why the market share for LDs is so low. If we fixed some of those problems, which Amtrak has failed to do for a half-century now, we might actually see an increase in ridership!

TurningOfTheWheel wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 5:40 pm I agree with you that there are no datasets that make LD's market share look good. You can make the (correct) observation that the current LD system is broken, but to what end is this observation if you do not offer solutions? We know, by and large, why the market share for LDs is so low. If we fixed some of those problems, which Amtrak has failed to do for a half-century now, we might actually see an increase in ridership!

The most obvious problem with long distance rail in America is not changing the model used. Amtrak has one very successful long distance train year end and year out, yet has refused to adopt that model elsewhere. It has had the solution for the first and last few miles of your trip for decades now, ie bring your own car. It does not need an increase in speed to break even.
The other model just is not working as well, extending a train overnight or two nights and providing sleepers. I read somewhere recently that train trips starting by passengers after 6 pm is like 10% of "day" passengers trains, even those starting their trips at 3 pm. More than half the time long distance trains run is at night after 6 pm. Want fuller trains, limit the number of trains running at night with this model by either using an autotrain model that does not stop at night or using much faster "day" trains that do not run at night. To travel the distances that long distance trains travel in America, you need much faster trains so they do not have to run at night. I'm suggesting 150 mph average trains, not 50 mph average train speeds. Make the 18 hour New York City to Chicago train do so in 6 hours (three times faster). Yes, HSR to be competitive with private vehicles on highways, slower speeds than what you can drive it in.

It's not like we have not offered solutions, it is just that Amtrak's management has been slow to pick up on them. I would much prefer spending $80 Billion on much faster trains on targeted corridors than on more slow trains on as many corridors possible. True HSR trains should be the goal with this much money, not more 80, 90, and 110 mph trains.

And it is time to be honest with the American public, there are valid reasons for existing speed limitations on shared tracks with freight trains, that if you want a healthy national passenger train network, high speed trains on dedicated tracks on dedicated corridors is the solution that works.
We knew that 50 years ago, yet we keep burying our heads in the sands saying it ain't necessarily so.

electricron wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:11 am The most obvious problem with long distance rail in America is not changing the model used. Amtrak has one very successful long distance train year end and year out, yet has refused to adopt that model elsewhere. It has had the solution for the first and last few miles of your trip for decades now, ie bring your own car. It does not need an increase in speed to break even.

Ron, I realize with you apparently residing in "the oven" or otherwise the DFW Metroplex, your occasion to use Auto Train is somewhere between nil and nonexistent.

Even though the experience has become a "meh" to me, with origin or destination in the Chicago area, the $900 or thereabouts one way rate to save a net of 400 miles of driving - and no time whatever - makes one question further use.

Again, I can only reiterate; overnight is enough for the non-aficionado customer base. The only markets I could envision for "Auto Train Service", i.e. adding or cutting auto racks to existing trains, much as is done in Europe, would be Galesburg-Irondale, CO, Galesburg-LaJunta, and Albuquerque-San Bernardino. I cannot foresee any Eastern segments, or those served by the Empire Builder (tri-weekly Sunset; uh forget it; if Daily, I might include Maricopa-Colton) where such service could work (Builder, MSP to where?).

There are few markets other than northeast - Florida that would work for auto racks. The Northeast to Florida market just has so much going for it that makes auto train work because the market is so large you have room for this service along with the huge amount of flights (and two other LD trains) - you have Orlando - one of the largest tourism destinations in the world - and other cities in Florida which are also major destinations along with the seasonal migration of snow bird retirees who go down to Florida in the winter and go home in the summer. If you didn’t have the problem of logistics and you could find a way to have cars drive on or off at any station stop? Then yes that would be a game changer for Amtrak LD service - but the problem is until someone figures out how to do that - the potential markets are limited.

It may be that the C-19 caused rental car shortage is / will make auto Trains busy this year. But in the future ? The present Auto train travels over many miles of track that allow 70 MPH service. IMHO any route for an Auto train needs the same metric. If all of of the route was 70 then the 855 miles could make the trip in 13:30 instead of 17:00 hours. That include service stop in Florence and little padding. Leave 17:30 arrive 0700 If Amtrak had the equipment and track time the present route would probably support another whole train 3 times a week 1 train set and maybe even every day for 2 additional train sets. ?

west point wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:08 pm It may be that the C-19 caused rental car shortage is / will make auto Trains busy this year. But in the future ? The present Auto train travels over many miles of track that allow 70 MPH service. IMHO any route for an Auto train needs the same metric. If all of of the route was 70 then the 855 miles could make the trip in 13:30 instead of 17:00 hours. That include service stop in Florence and little padding. Leave 17:30 arrive 0700 If Amtrak had the equipment and track time the present route would probably support another whole train 3 times a week 1 train set and maybe even every day for 2 additional train sets. ?

I hate to shudder about the rental car fees going from VA to FL via Autotrain...

Mr. Wolf, your immediate infers that you do not own an auto, and if you choose to try AT out, you'd have to rent one.

Well DPM once did just that - and it was an "adventure" returning it.

During the private era (he refused to ride Amtrak as I recall; like me, he "knew it when"), he, and Margaret, once flew to DCA, and rented, saying it was a one way to be returned at MCO.

He then drove to Lorton, had the auto loaded, and rode AT to Sanford.

He drove to MCO; and now, "let the fun begin".
Turning in a car rented in Wash with maybe 75 miles on it meant he had tampered with the ODO. No amount of explaining and showing documentation would do it with this young girl, and her manager. Finally, phone calls "to corporate" convinced them that yes there was an Auto Train and they should accept the documentation as authentic.

He darned near missed the flight back to MKE.

I'm glad so many are discussing the auto train model of my most recent response, but no one is discussing the second point I was trying hard to make. Apparently, I need to offer it up another way. This link with a graph of MTA ridership by the hour might help bring the point to light better.
https://rpa.org/uploads/old-site/librar ... e/subways/
The graph is about halfway down the article.
https://rpa.org/uploads/old-site/librar ... ership.png
What I really wish to point out is how low ridership gets after midnight, but also that ridership starts falling after 6 pm. No doubt a significant percentage of the trains ridership is during daylight, and that after dark ridership falls to dismal levels the later it gets.
Believe it or not, the same results are seen on "all" Amtrak trains, except one. To get the most efficiency from running trains we need to stop running them late at night. As long as we keep relying upon running long distance intercity trains with overnight schedules, ridership will always be extremely low.
On the East Coast, true HSR trains averaging 125-150 mph can replace slower overnight trains without late night running of these new very fast "day" trains. We need to build new HSR corridors to run these new HSR trains on. We can eliminate the midnight to 2 am arrivals and departures in Cleveland and Cincinnati.
West of Chicago and the Great Plains, the distances between major metro areas is too great for true HSR trains. That's where new auto trains models should be adopted. At least stop picking up and dropping off passengers in the wee hours every night.
Ideally, there would be two HSR corridors established between New York City and Chicago, with either a mid point city pair in Pittsburgh or Cleveland - depending upon which route is selected first. Run regional HSR trains from both Chicago and New York City to the midpoint city. HSR passengers would then transfer between trains there. Long distance passengers on slower trains than the true HSR trains, could run all the way on the same train in the same seat all the way between Chicago and New York City on the new higher speed tracks. If 10 hours elapse time was the goal, to travel the ~800 miles the train would only have to average 80 mph. if 8 hours elapse time was the goal, the train would only have to average 100 mph. If 6 hours elapse time was the goal, the train would have to average 133 mph, which would be possible for those willing to transfer trains in the midpoint city. Never-the-less, trains would no longer need to run late at night when ridership is dismal.
That's the point I was trying to make, we need faster trains to eliminate running trains late at night - and if we need to run these long distance trains late at night, we need to change the model of the sleeper trains to one that has been proven to work between DC and Orlando.
We may be spending $80 Billion in the next few years on intercity passenger trains. We need to be building faster trains corridors for faster trains, not modifying existing freight own corridors where the slow passenger trains are unwanted.

STrRedWolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 5:42 pm

west point wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 4:08 pm It may be that the C-19 caused rental car shortage is / will make auto Trains busy this year. But in the future ? The present Auto train travels over many miles of track that allow 70 MPH service. IMHO any route for an Auto train needs the same metric. If all of of the route was 70 then the 855 miles could make the trip in 13:30 instead of 17:00 hours. That include service stop in Florence and little padding. Leave 17:30 arrive 0700 If Amtrak had the equipment and track time the present route would probably support another whole train 3 times a week 1 train set and maybe even every day for 2 additional train sets. ?

I hate to shudder about the rental car fees going from VA to FL via Autotrain...

I think He means the cost of flying to Florida and renting a vehicle there has gone up .

yet Crescent from ATL Tue jun1st is shown 91% full ATL to CLT and CLT - WASH 90%. Your night train low ridership does not apply for this train and date. Agree have to wait until daily service begins.

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 6:33 pm Mr. Wolf, your immediate infers that you do not own an auto, and if you choose to try AT out, you'd have to rent one.

Well DPM once did just that - and it was an "adventure" returning it.

During the private era (he refused to ride Amtrak as I recall; like me, he "knew it when"), he, and Margaret, once flew to DCA, and rented, saying it was a one way to be returned at MCO.

He then drove to Lorton, had the auto loaded, and rode AT to Sanford.

He drove to MCO; and now, "let the fun begin".
Turning in a car rented in Wash with maybe 75 miles on it meant he had tampered with the ODO. No amount of explaining and showing documentation would do it with this young girl, and her manager. Finally, phone calls "to corporate" convinced them that yes there was an Auto Train and they should accept the documentation as authentic.

He darned near missed the flight back to MKE.

Not quite what I'm intending (I do have a car and am driving now, but parking in Baltimore is horrendus and the roads are a mess). It's just that during the pandemic, EVERY ONE was grabbing the vehicles, including moving vans! The chip shortage meant that every vehicle was being snatched up, including used, rentals, etc.

I think we'll have more incidents like what you'll describe, Mr. Norman.

It was somewhere around April 1972 TRAINS where he related this tale.

Things looking busy for my upcoming journey - my first cross country trip. Coach is sold out and looks like just a couple rooms left. Mr. Norman if you end up seeing #5 on June 12 I will be aboard.

Mr. Lord, if I'm at trackside to observe #5(12), I'll be between the W Hinsdale (17.85) and Clarendon Hills (18.32) stations on the Engineer's side. I'll remember to wear my University of Illinois hat and my "Joe's" (aviator sun glasses).

lordsigma12345 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:15 pm Things looking busy for my upcoming journey - my first cross country trip. Coach is sold out and looks like just a couple rooms left. Mr. Norman if you end up seeing #5 on June 12 I will be aboard.

I'll be on #3 June 13th. passing through Mr. Norman's town. Sleepers are sold out as of last week. Coaches 95% sold.

Edit: Mr. Norman, if you're out on the 13th for #3 then "smile you're on candid camera" as my camcorder will be filming our treck through the burbs.