North Carolina NCDOT-Amtrak Piedmont Service

gprimr1 wrote:Do these trains benefit from the improvements being made by Virginia Railway Express?

These trains don't, but the Carolinian (Trains 79/80-CLT to NYP) should receive some help from the Quantico Bridge and other projects in the WAS-RVR corridor. See my previous post on the Carolinian's woes.

As usual, the current stats for April are first, with last month’s (March 07) results in parentheses. Overall, performance is down from last month’s terrific results.


Here are the numbers:

Train 73: RGH - CLT
Scheduled Running Time: 3:09
Average Running Time: 3:19 (3:11)
Median Running Time: 3:07 (3:06)
Minimum Running Time: 3:02 (3:02)
Maximum Running Time: 5:21 (4:03)
St Deviation (in minutes): 33 (15)
90th Percentile Running Time: 3:36 (3:26)
Amtrak On-Time Standard Percentage: 77% (87%)


Train 74: CLT - RGH
Scheduled Running Time: 3:10
Average Running Time: 3:22 (3:16)
Median Running Time: 3:13 (3:10)
Minimum Running Time: 3:01 (3:02)
Maximum Running Time: 4:23 (4:29)
St Deviation (in minutes): 23 (17)
90th Percentile Running Time: 3:57 (3:30)
Amtrak On-Time Standard Percentage: 63% (81%)

Impressive performance by an otherwise "bad boy' regarding OTP.

While of course proprietary, I am willing to speculate that NCDOT and CSX have agreed upon more liberal on time rewards than has Amtrak nationally agreed with the LD hosts.

Moral; First step for Amtrak with the LD system is come to the table with a fat checkbook - fat enough to provide for the full opportunity cost of the freight traffic an Amtrak train has displaced.

However, given Amtrak's funding environment, one should not hold breath on such coming to pass.

Lastly on my auto trip last month along I-85, Atlanta to END near Petersburg, I noted the signage supporting use of the NC sponsored trains.

The Piedmont runs entirely between Raleigh and Charlotte, and never leaves the NCRR mainline, which is entirely dispatched by NS. Trains 73 and 74 never enter CSX-maintained territory.

The quality of the performance is far more affected by NCDOT's 10 years of investments in this line that includes closing grade crossings, removing or superelevating curves, and adding sidings and double track.

The Carolinian's performance is MUCH worse than the Piedmont. (it runs over CSX in VA on the way from CLT to NYP)

Add the fact that the state of NC owns the NCRR, leasing it to NS, and uses the NS rent payments to fund the improvements to the line, such as new signaling, new sidings, renovated stations., etc. Its a class operation, as long as we are on the NCRR/NS.

P.S. I was one of the last 50 or so private stockholders of the NCRR when the state bought us out a number of years ago, They were kind enough to return our stock certificates when we were bought out, voided of course.

May 2007 stats (April in parentheses)

Train 73: RGH - CLT
Scheduled Running Time: 3:09
Average Running Time: 3:12 (3:19)
Median Running Time: 3:10 (3:07)
Minimum Running Time: 3:03 (3:02)
Maximum Running Time: 3:58 (5:21)
St Deviation (in minutes): 10 (33)
90th Percentile Running Time: 3:20 (3:29)
Amtrak On-Time Standard Percentage: 84% (77%)


Train 74: CLT - RGH
Scheduled Running Time: 3:10
Average Running Time: 3:14 (3:22)
Median Running Time: 3:12 (3:13)
Minimum Running Time: 3:03 (3:01)
Maximum Running Time: 3:30 (4:23)
St Deviation (in minutes): 8 (23)
90th Percentile Running Time: 3:29 (3:57)
Amtrak On-Time Standard Percentage: 74% (63%)

To put this in perspective, this month, if you rode 73, you had a 90% chance of being less than 11 minutes late. On 74, you had a 90% chance of being less than 20 minutes late.

The East Durham siding is supposed to be done in June, which is supposed to save 30 seconds and improve reliability. I'm really looking forward to seeing what this service is like in say, 5 years' time. We could have something approaching Downeaster quality.

I only track one of the Carolinian trains because the performance is so depressing. Here is Train 79, southbound from NYP to CLT.

May 2007

Train 79: NYP - CLT
Scheduled Running Time: 12:59
Average Running Time: 14:31 (14:35)
Median Running Time: 14:31 (14:33)
Minimum Running Time: 13:21 (13:05)
Maximum Running Time: 16:59 (17:33)
St Deviation (in minutes): 51 (60)
90th Percentile Running Time: 15:32 (15:35)
Amtrak On-Time Standard Percentage: 4% (7%)

A few other points of data. The average Train 79 into Raleigh departed 1 hour and 27 minutes late. 90 percent of trains on this run departed Raleigh over 50 minutes late. The most timely train to Raleigh was 40 minutes late.

June 07 stats on the NC Piedmont service.

What a month! Train 73 had a near-perfect June.

Here are the numbers:

Train 73: RGH - CLT
Scheduled Running Time: 3:09
Average Running Time: 3:08 (3:12)
Median Running Time: 3:07 (3:10)
Minimum Running Time: 2:58 (3:03)
Maximum Running Time: 3:17 (3:58)
St Deviation (in minutes): 05 (10)
90th Percentile Running Time: 3:14 (3:20)
Amtrak On-Time Standard Percentage: 97% (84%)


Train 74: CLT - RGH
Scheduled Running Time: 3:10
Average Running Time: 3:18 (3:14)
Median Running Time: 3:10 (3:12)
Minimum Running Time: 3:05 (3:03)
Maximum Running Time: 3:58 (3:30)
St Deviation (in minutes): 14 (08)
90th Percentile Running Time: 3:39 (3:29)
Amtrak On-Time Standard Percentage: 70% (74%)

DISCUSSION: On June 29th, Train 73 left Raleigh at 7:14 A.M., 9 minutes behind schedule. It arrived in Charlotte at 10:12 A.M. The Train not only made up the 9 minute deficit over the trip, but shaved off 2 more minutes in the closing run to Charlotte, finishing a run over the 173-mile stretch in less than 3 hours, clocking in at 2:58!

As far as I can tell, this may be a first in revenue service.

Beyond the sub-3 hour run, Train 73’s 97% performance for the month does not indicate that the train was not late for 45 consecutive days spanning May and June.

The maximum running time for 74 was above 4 hours for all of 2006 and the first 4 months of 2007. For May and June 07, all trains have finished in under 4 hours, with a 90% performance under 3:40. So while 74 is not keeping up with 73's performance, it is improving in its own right.

That's a pretty respectable average speed, actually! Have all of the coaches been repainted into the attractive new color scheme yet?

hsr_fan wrote:That's a pretty respectable average speed, actually! Have all of the coaches been repainted into the attractive new color scheme yet?

I haven't seen the livery recently, myself. Maybe matthewswaggie could answer? The new combine car which was added to the Piedmont (with a bike rack) might have been the indication that the new paint scheme was fully implemented, I'm not sure.

NCDOT has a 2:50 travel time goal for the corridor using the current conventional equipment with 79 mph MAS. At that running time, the average speed will be 61.1 mph. To put that in perspective, the Acela averages 65.7 between BOS and NYP.

By today's schedule, the avg Piedmont speed (at 3:09) is 54.9. The 2:58 run the other day averaged 58.3 mph. Indeed, pretty good!

Assuming the Southeast High Speed Rail Corridor project ever gets on track, NCDOT thinks a 2:10 time with the same stops is possible, for an average speed of 79.8 mph.

I think another 4-5 minutes will come out of the schedule this fall. When that happens, I expect we will see times in the 2:57 - 3:00 become more frequent, with a once/twice every 6 months run of 2:56/2:55.

I think I heard that 4 of the 6 cars in regular use have been renovated. They are doing full rebuilds, with new interiors, and especially the rebuilt trucks, which had gotten very rough riding. New paint, too. I saw #73, when I worked #80 last Sunday- looked like it was all new paint, but we passed each other so fast it was hard to tell for sure. Rebuilds are being done in Wilmington DE, but I'm not sure who is doing them.

Funny how North Carolina can manage to maintain older coaches in beautiful condition while Amtrak retires Heritage cars and cuts its sleeper and diner capacity significantly. The Heritage fleet should never have been retired with only 50 Viewliner sleepers being delivered.

There is a photo of one of the renovated coaches here:

http://www.bytrain.org/passenger/

Mr Hsr_fan...

Amfleet I, Amfleet II

Acela

Pacific Surfliner

Superliner I, Superliner II

Horizon

Talgo

The more diverse the fleet, the more investment a business needs in parts inventory. If this were 1960, and P-S and Budd were open for business, that would be one thing. A railroad could go to the factory.

This is 2007. The factories are shuttered, except maybe Bombardier. The lines are cold, and the molds for hard parts are most likely destroyed. Any replacement hard part has to be custom-made in a foundry.

Look at Southwest Airlines a moment: They run a single type of airplane, the Boeing 737 family. That massively increases their parts commonality.

Someone like NCDOT or VIA, running a fleet of one equipment type, can stockpile parts. The same number of parts dollars buys more of common items.

When I was battalion motor officer for my artillery battalion waaay too long ago, I used to envy the mech infantry battalion BMOs. Their fleets were derived from the M113A1 basic vehicle. I had roughly equal numbers of a variety of equipment. My parts inventory was more expensive because it was far more diverse.

Disclaimer: IRA position in LUV

Look at the length of a typical Silver Star or Silver Meteor in the 1980's vs today. Amtrak has slashed its capacity, particularly sleeper capacity, despite demand being there. If Amtrak can't manage to do what VIA does and keep its old sleepers going, it should look at other options like converting surplus Amfleets to sleepers. I just know that the 50 car Viewliner fleet has proven insufficient to meet demand for first class capacity. But I guess this is a topic for a different discussion.

hsr_fan wrote:Look at the length of a typical Silver Star or Silver Meteor in the 1980's vs today. Amtrak has slashed its capacity, particularly sleeper capacity, despite demand being there. If Amtrak can't manage to do what VIA does and keep its old sleepers going, it should look at other options like converting surplus Amfleets to sleepers. I just know that the 50 car Viewliner fleet has proven insufficient to meet demand for first class capacity. But I guess this is a topic for a different discussion.

This seems like an appropriate place to mention my research -- while there may be a couple trains where capacity is particularly limited, my thread on sleeper availability showed that for the trains in the large sample that I looked at, you can get sleeper space even a day out, almost always. To take the same set of trains for July 6 returning July 7th:
Chicago-Minot, ND -- available both ways.
Chicago-Denver -- return is available
Chicago-Lamy, NM -- available both ways
Chicago-Dallas -- return is available
Chicago-Memphis -- 1st leg is available.

So even looking at what must be one of the busiest travel weeks of the year, at the height of the summer travel season, 7 of 10 of the trains I looked at have sleeper space available the day before departure. There is NOT strong demand for sleeper space in the Amtrak system. If someone else wants to look at the Silver Palm and get us statistics, that would be interesting, but at this point, I think