Lynchburg VA NE Regional (ext. to Roanoke and Bristol)

Using 1970 census figures, there were only two stops for SOU 17 & 18 between Roanoke and Bristol with a population of at least 10,000--Radford and Pulaski. As of 2010, there were still only two of those places with 10,000 or more--Christiansburg and Radford. Considering the populations of just the towns where the trains stopped, the total corridor population (including Roanoke, both Bristols and the intermediate stops) was 182k in 1970 and 219k in 2010. Roanoke, Christiansburg and Radford account for over 60% of the total. Ridership pickings would be pretty slim south of Radford.

Also, it's a bit over 150 miles from Roanoke to Bristol. If a train were extended that far, the FRA would deem it a "long distance" train for inspection and servicing requirements. That would result in higher expenses, even beyond the added fuel, crew costs, and trackage fees. It's hard to see that the ridership would justify it. Try a bus, to see if there's any business, but a train would be hard to sustain unless you could reach a bigger anchor point, such as Knoxville. Although that would be a very long day to reach DC or NY.

EDIT: Wiki does give the TriCities CSA total population as of 2008 at 500k, although that is over a larger area, and includes a number of locales where a train would not stop. That number is higher than I would have thought, but still not sure it makes Bristol an appropriate terminus for a train.

Station Aficionado wrote:...
... a train would be hard to sustain unless you could reach a bigger anchor point, such as Knoxville. ...
... the Tri-Cities CSA total population as of 2008 at 500k ... over a larger area ... higher than I ... thought, but still not sure it makes Bristol an appropriate terminus ...

Wikipedia seems very out-dated on this one. Looking for a more recent pop figure, it seems the sprawling CSA has been replaced by a more tightly focused Kingston-Bristol-Bristol MetropolitanSA, estimated 2013 pop of 309,000.

That's surely a better number, more like you wanted, with a roughly 25-mile-radius catchment area for the (future) Amtrak station.

Looking at these numbers, Bristol 309,000 compares very well with Lynchburg 256,000 and Roanoke 312,000. As you note, Knoxville with 853,000, is the big bear in these woods. Then Chattanooga 542,000. Not to forget Atlanta 5,523,000. Almost two million in cities before you hit Atlanta's mega millions.

I've bookmarked this great source of the latest Census estimates:

http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tabl ... l?src=bkmk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Station Aficionado wrote:...
... over 150 miles from Roanoke to Bristol. If a train were extended that far, the FRA would deem it a "long distance" train for inspection and servicing requirements. That would result in higher expenses, even beyond the added fuel, crew costs, and trackage fees. ... a train would be hard to sustain unless you could reach a bigger anchor point, such as Knoxville. Although that would be a very long day to reach DC or NY.
...

For a long time, Virginia has been promising a train to Bristol, eventually, while trying to get support in the legislature to fund its higher priority projects D.C.-Richmond, D.C.-Lynchburg, and D.C.-Norfolk, and, again in the eventually category, Richmond-Petersburg-Raleigh over the shortcut.

Having talked about it for so long, VA DOT can't stop talking about it without inflaming folks in that far southwest corner of the state. Or giving politicos a reason to not believe them. Uh oh.

When I read about Virginia getting three other states and various cities and counties to sign on to a Memorandum of Understanding for an ambitious plan D.C.-Bristol-Knoxville-Chattanooga-Atlanta (plus Louisville-Knoxville-Chattanooga-Atlanta), I know they're looking some years ahead. But they are looking, and they have a good record of getting train stuff done.

Yeah, it would take another Stimulus, manna from Heaven sort of Billion dollar windfall to pay for such a route. Or, it could take years and years of incremental smallish steps, like Lynchburg-Roanoke.

But Roanoke-Bristol-Knoxville would be the hard part. From there it would roll down the valley to Chattanooga under its own momentum. Srsly. A train Kentucky-Atlanta and one Bristol-Knoxville-Atlanta provides twice daily service, the beginning of a corridor. And Virginia doesn't want one train each way to Bristol: it wants one train from D.C. and one from Norfolk-Richmond, the fabled Trans Dominion Express. So that could make 3 frequencies Knoxville-Chattanooga. Then Tennessee could do some of the lifting to make that a corridor with 4 or 6 trains a day Bristol-Knoxville-Chattanooga.

The $100 million or so (is my remembered figure in the ballpark?) it's costing to get from Lynchburg to Roanoke is only the first step, of course. (From that article, that's what Virginia is telling folks in small cities near Chattanooga.) There'd be more revenue on that portion if it were also carrying riders to/from Bristol, after the next step gets there. Then both those segments would perform much, much better if carrying pax to/from Knoxville -- as well as Chattanooga and Atlanta or Kentucky.

I certainly expect the Bristol extension to become a real thing. Maybe from Knoxville with sleepers and even a diner, LOL. It sure looks like a much better route than the Pioneer or Desert Wind would be, or Sunset East Florida-New Orleans overnight.

That real thing will arrive only after big money is invested D.C.-Richmond, D.C.-Norfolk, Richmond-Petersburg, and Richmond-Petersburg-Raleigh (and, of course, after Amtrak has enuff single-level equipment for the trains).

So, not soon, but not never either.

Woody: You do have a correct idea about the Bristol catchment of 25 miles but there are some unique items.
1. Bristol is at the long distance from Roanoke without much population. BUT
2. There is Kingsport which was at least more population than both Bristol's combined. Unfortunately it is on CSX ( Clinchfield RR ) . Kingsport - Johnson City - Erwin
3. Johnson City is on the NS ( SOU RR ) line to Knoxville which population is close to Bristol.
4. There are several smaller Tn cities close to Johnson City & Bristol that can also feed the train.
5. However how can Va DOT justify serving mostly Tn residents on a stub train Roanoke - Bristol ?
As an aside on Amtrak day SOU had discontinued all trains South and west of Bristol but N&W still had one as part of SOU / N&W WASH - Bristol train. After Amtrak day SOU continued the train as a 1 car train WASH - Lynchburg for some years.

While the Tri-Cities is a decent combined metro, the problem with such a dispersed population is that "everyone" is going to have to get a ride to "the station". So they're already going to be starting their trip in the car driving.

So why not ask them to drive to a "real" intermodal hub at US460 (Christiansburg-Radford-Blacksburg) or at I-77's crossing of I-81 (Wytheville). Cars driving 79mph on I-81 or I-77 are going to make for a faster elapsed time for less investment than trying to get the train to go 79mph..which, even if you could get it going that fast, it still is going to operate mostly empty over a whole lot of route-miles.

The 1-hour drive to Wytheville is not too much to ask folks...indeed, the folks from ROA have proven their worth as a market by driving their hour to LYH.

When Tennessee is ready to ante up, then it'll make sense to go to Knoxville. Meantime, on Virginia's dime, a sweet intermodal center (probably in Christiansburg) is the terminus most that makes sense and that sends car and bus out to the farther hinterlands.

Generally agree, although we should note that 81 is quite unpleasant to drive on, as it is the main truck route from the Northeast to Atlanta and beyond. For some older folks (and the population of the area tends to skew older), a drive on 81 might be a little daunting.

I-81 has become the alt route to/from parts of Florida and Georgia,due in part to ongoing construction/congestion
on I-95,and the 2 "shared" sections with I-77 at Wytheville Va and I-64 near Lexington Va don't help.
Throw in the twice a year NASCAR road show at Bristol,then I-81 turns rotten real fast on both sides of the Va/Tn state line.
The population at Bristol swells 2-3 times the year round population #'s.

Station Aficionado wrote: Generally agree, although we should note that 81 is quite unpleasant to drive on, as it is the main truck route from the Northeast to Atlanta and beyond. For some older folks (and the population of the area tends to skew older), a drive on 81 might be a little daunting.

I friggen HATE driving I-81. It's one reason I take the train to Atlanta over driving.

Greg Moore wrote:I friggen HATE driving I-81. It's one reason I take the train to Atlanta over driving.

Sure. Me too (I drive the part from PA to I-66) But as far as "solutions" that Virginia can implement go, running a few oddly-timed (or expensive) trains to WAS-Bristol is not likely to be the winner.

A plan for moving still more trucks more trucks off I-81 on to NS's Crescent Corridor would obviously have NS's full attention and cooperation, and make the drive to ROA a little more bearable all day. Putting 1x round trip on NS is going against their interests and really is not a solution that serves a lot of people.

So if you're trading intermodal improvements to NS (that, as a side-benefit, serve to make I-81 more tolerable) in exchange for passenger help somewhere along the line, the place along the line to work with NS for improved passenger service toward the WAS end and never toward the Bristol end. At the WAS end of NS territory, you have ~5 Amtrak trains per day, in VRE territory, you add another 16. If you are Virginia negotiating with NS for expanded passenger service on their tracks (like letting VRE use 2 tracks, instead of being a single-track, uni-directional RR), ROA-Bristol is not where you want to blow all your financial and political capital. It just isn't. Sorry.

Bedford's still trying:

The Bedford Regional Rail Initiative presented a report to town council Tuesday night, asking for an Amtrak stop in Bedford.
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Initially, the Department of Rail and Public Transportation denied a stop in Bedford but now the department is hearing them out.
The committee compiled a report showing the demand and where to build the stop.

The committee designated the area behind the courthouse for an Amtrak stop. The proposed conceptual design shows 90 parking spaces, a drop off area, and a small shelter station.
*********************************

Several reports now that VA DRPT and the Roanoke PPP are working to further design the full-high platform for ROA that the FRA wanted and will have a plan by January that can be evaluated vs the original platform design.

Does that mean that the new AMTRAK station that the City of Roanoke is building will go on the parking lot between 1st and S. Jefferson along Norfolk Ave? It's a pretty slim piece of land between the street and the railyard. I guess a lot depends on how they deal with Norfolk St. and the design of the station. Any word on when service will start?

Arlington wrote:Several reports now that VA DRPT and the Roanoke PPP are working to further design the full-high platform for ROA that the FRA wanted and will have a plan by January that can be evaluated vs the original platform design.

This is a really big win all around. The regulator did their job and the state level government agencies acknowledged that they need to abide by the regulations. I think if the FRA had granted a waiver here they would have had to do so on a lot of other projects throughout the rest of the country. Good for them and good on VA DRPT getting the message and not being obstinate.

I remain impressed at how strong the commitment is in Virginia to moving passenger rail projects forward.

New River Valley MPO selects two sites on North Franklin St in Christiansburg as their leading choices. One site, called North Franklin West is on the northwest quadrant of N. Franklin at NS, and the other, called North Franklin East is on the southeast corner (and would put its station on the south side ("northbound" if right-running) of the tracks)

Arlington wrote:New River Valley MPO selects two sites on North Franklin St in Christiansburg as their leading choices. One site, called North Franklin West is on the northwest quadrant of N. Franklin at NS, and the other, called North Franklin East is on the southeast corner (and would put its station on the south side ("northbound" if right-running) of the tracks)

The Franklin St. sites are a little less than a mile west of the old N&W station (which is used by NS, and is poorly cited for passenger use in any event). Franklin St. is also BR 460, and it would be a quick trip up the road by bus to Blacksburg (Virginia Tech).