Lynchburg VA NE Regional (ext. to Roanoke and Bristol)

Thruway RVR <> CVS connecting to the Crescent will really tax the present consist. Once the Lynchburg train started the Crescent's average trip distance increased as the LYH & CVS passengers were locked out of the Crescent until the last minute. additional coach(s) and sleeper might be required but probably just to ATL. That might be enough traffic to make set off sleepers ( 1-2) and coaches (1-3) financially feasible.
In the future the best solution is a NYP - WASH - RVR - RGH - CLT - ATL. That would give NPN and Norfolk rail connections to those points as well.

Now I'm really wondering how many people are riding trains RVR-WAS-CVS (or v.v.). If it's nontrivial, and those riders can be convinced to switch to the bus (should be a slam-dunk given how much faster I-64 is than the other two sides of the triangle, but some people are obstinate about train vs. bus), then that's a huge financial win for Amtrak, since those RVR-NEC and CVS-NEC seats can now be sold for more money than they were making previously.

The other thing I have no real handle on is how much traffic actually goes between Charlottesville and the Triangle area in NC. Makes sense that there would be, what with the R1 research universities, and also the ACC rivalries, but how much travel that actually generates is a mystery to me. Growing the in-state UVA student market CVS-Hampton Roads also ought to be a concern for Amtrak Virginia.

Those people may be riding due to accessibility issues. That population might shift if the bus is ADA capable.

CComMack wrote: The other thing I have no real handle on is how much traffic actually goes between Charlottesville and the Triangle area in NC. Makes sense that there would be, what with the R1 research universities, and also the ACC rivalries, but how much travel that actually generates is a mystery to me.

In my experience (I spent most of my life in the Triangle) travel demand between Charlottsville and the Triangle is near zero. UVA was certainly a place which was discussed and known, but it simply felt like you could not get 'there from here' (by any mode). Better service might generate a handfull of riders, but I would not expect the route to ever be busy. The historical linkages and habits connecting the two places just aren't there.

I'm now seeing a 1200pm-130pm RVR-CVS bus, which targets the westbound Cardinal and is also timed well to pick up passengers from NPN.

I'm also seeing a 330pm-500pm CVS-RVR bus, which leaves shortly after the eastbound Cardinal arrives, and also could provide a connection to the southbound Silver Star -- though it's tight.


EDIT: I missed this the first time because I looked on a day when the Cardinal doesn't run through CVS.

A study on potential ridership at Bedford was published today.

A new study performed by the engineering firm Wendel shows a train stop in Bedford would attract around 26,000 additional riders to Amtrak. That figure is beyond the number of passengers who would board at Kemper Street Station in Lynchburg and the future train station in Roanoke.

Funding for the report was secured by the Bedford-Franklin Regional Rail Initiative.

Link to the study

They're claiming that the total boardings/alightings in Lynchburg would decrease by 8,000, Bedford would add 32,000, and Roanoke would increase by 2,000 due to Roanoke-Bedford traffic.

I think this study positions them to be in a position to get service if they can find a way to get the station built.

Balerion wrote: They're claiming that the total boardings/alightings in Lynchburg would decrease by 8,000, Bedford would add 32,000, and Roanoke would increase by 2,000 due to Roanoke-Bedford traffic.

They put real work and numbers into that study. With the long gap between Lynchburg and Roanoke (for a corridor service), adding a station in Bedford is not unreasonable. I can see a future Bedford station going into the longer range plans to wait until after Roanoke service starts and there is available funding in the budget after higher priority projects are addressed. However, VA can easily spend all of its available annual funds on the WAS to RVM to NPN & NFK corridors for the next 10 years.

I think that's exactly the point. They know VA DRPT probably won't prioritize this station. Consequently they are building a case for a possible federal grant application (CDBG/TIGER). This looks like a pretty clear first step to me.

A representative of the Bristol group gave a presentation at the Va. Assn. of Railway Patrons meeting last month in Williamsburg. He said that after the first meeting with the state people, the group really went back and did its homework to build the case and got a much more receptive hearing the next time they went to Richmond.

I still don't see how a Bedford station wins so many people that Stations at LYH and ROA cannot. It feels a lot like the predicted new riders on the Downeaster who never materialized at FRE and BRU but were mostly old passengers diverted from POR. It is too much to spend if all you do is shuffle around riders you already have captured.

Frankly I have concerns that ROA wI'll divert a lot from LYH (exactly as BRU would have if built without FRE)

I can't see building a Bedford stop until you can show that ROA really adds new riders in its own right and that LYH and ROA are somehow maxed out (parking? Traffic?).

There's nothing wrong with pulling riders closer to Roanoke from Lynchburg. Overcrowded stations depress more local ridership. Portland desperately needed Brunswick in order to alleviate overcrowding of the station parking facilities. I think on this very well patronized route more stations are very likely to be a good thing.

Is there evidence that LYH is as maxed-out as POR was? Even if so, we'd want to see how un-maxed LYH gets after getting relieved by ROA. Any/all New River Valley & Roanoke local traffic that today bus or drives to LYH will switch to ROA. That will be huge relief at LYH.

If there is latent demand between Bedford and LYH the first thing you'd see is LYH filling back up (which did not happen at POR--it plain old dropped and hadn't recovers last I looked--any update?). More likely LYH will take a 20% to 30% drop and won't grow until a second daily debuts (which CSX has tied to the Acca Yard bypass 2nd track in Richmond). Maybe target that plus a year?

That sequence should work fine. Bedford just got their study done. Roanoke just completed final engineering and is ready to break ground. All the stakeholders will know ahead of time if the Bedford proposal isn't necessary.

Bristol gets $100,000 for study on extending passenger rail south from Roanoke

A new $100,000 grant from the Appalachian Regional Commission nearly completes the funding needed for the city’s passenger rail viability study.

...

This award gets the city “very, very close” to having enough funds to complete the study, Trivette said.

...

Last year, City Council approved a memorandum of understanding that seeks to enlist towns and cities along a proposed route – both in Virginia and in other states. Trivette said city leaders have had some preliminary conversations with officials in Knoxville and Chattanooga.