Brightline West Construction and Projected Opening (2024 - 2028)

Time to start a new topic: ABC7

'TRANSFORMATIVE' RANCHO CUCAMONGA-TO-LAS VEGAS HIGH-SPEED RAIL PROJECT SET TO BREAK GROUND IN 2024
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The $12-billion project is expected to break ground in early 2024 and completed in four years -- in time for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.

First, consider the competition. Airlines, even if just Southwest (which after an '08 horror story I never fly again; what flying I do is "stick to United"), airlines offer flights into four regional airports within the Basin (LAX, ONT. BUR, LGB) from LAS.

I realize that if all anyone wants is to "do The Strip" no need for an auto; POV or Rental, up there.

So I must wonder how much "pull" Brightline can expect away from the Northern edge of The Basin. When compared with others, those communities are not exactly "top of the pile" in the affluence rankings.

Maybe there are enough folk from that draw "hoping to change to change their luck"; sure hope so for this project's success. But "on the flip", I realize that following the fifty years ago model of having the service originate at LAUPT, with an intermediate somewhere along Uncle Pete, as distinct from the SP Sunset Route, is quite "dated".

Honestly, I don't think they're trying to catch the fliers so much as they are the drivers who get backed up on I-15 for hours. They'll need some scheduling cooperation from the LA Transit authority and likely much more parking at the RC train station, but once people get there the train will make it easy to get over Cajon Pass and on their way over the desert.

To me, the big question is construction cost recovery. Brightline is building fresh rail. They’re going to need lots of passengers.

IIRC the station site (in Las Vegas) is supposed to become like a Madison Square Garden for Vegas - train station on one level, and another level for sports events. Vegas has had a TON of teams start playing there, from the new Golden Knights, to the Raiders move, to now the Athletics moving.

There is supposed to be an NBA-ready court being built next to the station, albeit on land not owned by BLW. There are talks that BLW can build an MLS stadium on the land they have for the station, since the land they have is 110 acres but the station will only take up 33 acres.

If the land the station is on, and the land immediately around it, becomes a sports hotspot, I think BLW will do more than enough business to recuperate costs

As Colonel Perkowski notes in his immediate, "the bar" for being a financial success is greatly raised with the 250-some miles of new trackage needed. The threshold of "commercial success", i.e. people will ride it, is far more attainable than is "financial success", i.e. the private sector investors get both their periodic interest payments as well as getting paid back when their debt instruments mature.

Meanwhile, back in Florida, it certainly appears from my eight or so rides to date, some of which have been simply to get from Boca to either Miami or WP, Brightline is a "commercial success". Now while I must wonder how much concern Civil Engineers have had over the soil and the possible sinking of the ROW regarding the thirty five miles of new ROW laid over "flat as a pancake" Central Florida, it's "only minutes into the First Quarter" to determine if WP-MCO will prove to be either noted "success".

Of possible interest, I just "drove the Googlemobile" around the Rancho Station. There appears to be an adequately sized parking lot adjacent to such. It's "pay", but then "so what's new".

Further, Mr. Google notes that KONT is 3.7 miles away. Reportedly, this airport is lacking both passengers and airlines serving it when compared with the other regional airports in the Basin. Possibly there will be a "Surrey With The Fringe on the Top" shuttling passengers from there to the Rancho station.

Unfortunately for me when I "go down below" (my Father's term for when he was in FL), my hotel is 5.8 miles away; so it would appear I'm "out of range" for Brightline's "surrey".

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:41 am As Colonel Perkowski notes in his immediate, "the bar" for being a financial success is greatly raised with the 250-some miles of new trackage needed. The threshold of "commercial success", i.e. people will ride it, is far more attainable than is "financial success", i.e. the private sector investors get both their periodic interest payments as well as getting paid back when their debt instruments mature.

BLW will be getting a fair amount of federal grants, so at least they have a bit of a cushion. The big thing that will cause issues with BLW IMO is, BLW not having direct access to LA proper, and BLW will have to rely on MetroLink to fill that gap until CAHSR gets their Phase 2 connection from LA to SD; keep in mind, Phase 1 is supposed to open in 2030... We are still in 2024, that "Phase 2" likely isn't happening until closer to 2040 at this rate.

If MetroLink begins an electrification program similar to what CalTrain in the Bay Area did, at least for LA Union Station to Rancho Cucamonga, BLW could use that to get true LA access before waiting for CAHSR

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:41 am Meanwhile, back in Florida, it certainly appears from my eight or so rides to date, some of which have been simply to get from Boca to either Miami or WP, Brightline is a "commercial success". Now while I must wonder how much concern Civil Engineers have had over the soil and the possible sinking of the ROW regarding the thirty five miles of new ROW laid over "flat as a pancake" Central Florida, it's "only minutes into the First Quarter" to determine if WP-MCO will prove to be either noted "success".

Brightline's ridership is already surpassing the ridership of airlines between Orlando and Miami, and has much better frequency. It's hitting some crazy six-figure monthly ridership numbers, and the service just started in September.

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 8:06 am Of possible interest, I just "drove the Googlemobile" around the Rancho Station. There appears to be an adequately sized parking lot adjacent to such. It's "pay", but then "so what's new".

They likely will need much more parking, since I'd imagine BLW will bring more customers than current MetroLink operations - not to mention the fact you will likely have a lot of overnight parkers, as I don't imagine many people who drive to and park at the BLW station that will return to their cars the same day.

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 8:06 am Further, Mr. Google notes that KONT is 3.7 miles away. Reportedly, this airport is lacking both passengers and airlines serving it when compared with the other regional airports in the Basin. Possibly there will be a "Surrey With The Fringe on the Top" shuttling passengers from there to the Rancho station.

KONT is surrounded by railroads, but there is no direct railroad route that could be established between KONT and the Rancho Cucamonga station. That being said, 3.7 miles is a short distance, a simple shuttle should suffice, but that puts you at the mercy of Southern California traffic...

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:41 am As Colonel Perkowski notes in his immediate, "the bar" for being a financial success is greatly raised with the 250-some miles of new trackage needed. The threshold of "commercial success", i.e. people will ride it, is far more attainable than is "financial success", i.e. the private sector investors get both their periodic interest payments as well as getting paid back when their debt instruments mature.

I occasionally wonder, how many miles of track in this country were operated on for long by the road that built them, as opposed to the company that paid to laid the steel going bankrupt and the physical plant being bought for pennies on the dollar by some other entity.

I'd venture, maybe a third. at least.

Last year. I found the Boca parking to be very convenient. When you buy your ticket and choose the $5.00 parking option, they ask your vehicle's make, color, and tag (my TSN-VN - Tan Son Nhut, Vietnam - is easy enough for me to remember, but what if I had a rental?). They further tell you to park head in so that when they come by with a camera to read tags, they know if "you're good".

11,000 workers to be hired: Fox5Vegas

LAS VEGAS, Nev. (FOX5) - Unions will soon begin to recruit thousands of workers to build the massive high-speed Brightline rail spanning from Las Vegas to California, and Nevada crews are set to begin their portion of the project by summer.

Tuesday, the Department of Labor met with trade unions of Nevada and California to discuss a monumental task: how can they hire 11,000 workers to build 218 miles of rail?

Three thousand construction and trade workers will be hired within Southern Nevada, according to Vince Saavedra, executive secretary-treasurer of the Southern Nevada Building Trades Unions. They’ll be responsible for the roughly 50-mile portion of the project from Las Vegas Boulevard at Warm Springs all the way to the California border.
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Mo money: ThePointsGuy.com

DOT announces more than $2 billion for Brightline West high-speed rail from Los Angeles to Las Vegas

The federal government is doubling down on high-speed rail with an announcement it is helping to raise $2.5 billion for Brightline West.

That comes on top of a massive $3 billion federal grant announced in December. Brightline is the nation's only private high-speed rail company, and the infusion of cash is a substantial amount of the expected $12 billion it will cost to build high-speed rail between Las Vegas and Southern California.
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It's worth noting that this "funding" is a bit different, though, from the $3 billion grant. In this case, the Fed gov is essentially incentivizing bond sales. But make no mistake, the $2.5 billion will be debt on Brightline's balance sheet, whereas the $3 billion will be booked as revenue on the income statement.

HenryAlan wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 9:54 am It's worth noting that this "funding" is a bit different, though, from the $3 billion grant. In this case, the Fed gov is essentially incentivizing bond sales. But make no mistake, the $2.5 billion will be debt on Brightline's balance sheet, whereas the $3 billion will be booked as revenue on the income statement.

Paid In Capital is more like it, Mr. Alan.

GBN; CPA