Will the Riders Come Back?

I'm very skeptical about the whole working from home thing. If that were a viable business model, it would have been adopted long ago. As soon as they can, companies are going to want people back in the office. People do not communicate well at a distance. Productivity suffers. And bosses want their employees where they can keep an eye on them. *If* the virus is beaten -- and it hasn't been, yet -- everyone will be back in the office in a few months, I predict.

charlesriverbranch wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 10:12 pm I'm very skeptical about the whole working from home thing. If that were a viable business model, it would have been adopted long ago.

It's hardly a new thing, but it requires decent internet. I had home-based employees back in the early 2000s, and was home based myself from 2009 to 2014. We had video conferencing like you see with Zoom, Skype for Business, Microsoft Teams, etc. but it wasn't nearly as functional as it is today.

What changed was companies being forced into it. Big city politicians didn't really think thought thru the ramifications of closing down their downtown offices for months at a time... Everyone assumed it was temporary, and before you knew it, we were three months in with no end in sight. We're now past the one year mark of offices being closed.

It only takes a month of doing something for it to become a habit. Corporations and their employees not only discovered but have proven a large percentage of what they do can be just as effective without being in close proximity to each other, and that genie won't be going back into the bottle anytime soon.

I'm sure some of us older people like the office for its distractions and the separation of personal & work life. But the Millenials and younger don't need that. They've embraced that online social media lifestyle which doesn't require as much interaction in person... we shouldn't be surprised if they also embrace the remote workforce concept.

Very well-written eolesen.

The technology available in the home today including high-speed internet is now viable for a WFH environment in a digital age - it never really was on a large-scale before say the last 5-10 years and during that time a lot of the prevailing sentiment was along the lines of what charlesriverbranch wrote. Large files can now be transferred easily, and quite frankly employees can be "watched" far better when using connectivity tools. The tools my organization uses allows you to see when someone is on their computer, in a meeting, has an auto-away if the computer locks, and shows when they are offline. You can even get notified when someone becomes available. If someone gets their work done on-time and at/above standard why do they need to be in the office? The pandemic forced people who were skeptical or anti-remote work to try it, some likely came around - others may not have. Bosses certainly had no qualms before asking people to log-in from home after hours to get something done that was needed ASAP, I've gotten those phone calls in the evening or on the weekend before. If it works for critical last-minute stuff why not for the day-to-day?

Personally I'm a millenial but among the oldest of the generation. I've managed people across all generations both in-person and now remotely. I've largely commuted during the entire pandemic even though my job can be done from just about anywhere, but there is something for me about being in the office with co-workers and the spontaneous collaboration that happens. I have taken advantage of WFH when it made sense especially with a lot of my co-workers being remote. Why stay in the office for a block of online meetings from 2-5pm when I can drive home at lunch, and then when my meetings are done I don't have to worry about commuting home? Online meetings actually increased my productivity in a lot of ways. There were several times I would have four 1-hour meetings at 4 physically distant locations before, requiring me to travel between meetings and not really able to get any work done in-between other than a quick phone call or phone email. With online meetings I could attend the meeting for an hour and then immediately get on with my work - whether I was in the office or at home.

The other thing a lot of the workforce has found is the joys of no commute. They have time to exercise, sleep a little later, spend time with their kids or significant other, engage in a hobby, cook at home, etc. A lot of them got 2-3 formerly stressful hours back in their day that were simply tied up with getting to and from the workplace. Now those employees might be more rested, healthier and may have a better work/life balance and actually be more productive during working hours.

I do think many people will return to the office, and many companies want to foster some sense of comradery and collaboration. But it's not going to be everyone. A sizeable minority of the workforce will continue remotely full-time, and another chunk will end up WFH part-time.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/transpor ... it-future/ - another good analysis about recovery of METRO ridership here in DC..probably has some applicability to the MBTA...

I believe what you're going to see is what the Commonwealth itself is doing. Businesses are going to have smaller footprints and a majority of employees will have to show up to the office a couple of times a day of course not all at the same time.

My office, when they fully reopen does not expect everyone to be back to the office. Most people will just come in a day or 2 a week and work remotely the rest of the time.

Everything is changing to communal desk and booking systems to book your spot and see if there is space before coming into the office. You can also see who will be in the office that day.

We also have the option to continue working completely remotely if we want too.

Trinnau wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 10:13 pm I think we'll learn more in the fall with schools fully back in session and the summer vacation season over. I know plenty of people who are still working at home at least through the summer.

Purely anecdotal, but it does appear auto rush hour volume has increased lately M-F. Many former public transit riders could still (understandably) remain COVID paranoid/cautious. Time will tell how many return...

Some people will probably indulge themselves with $25 for close-up parking (or perhaps even less with some of the deals showing up on SpotHero and other apps), for the one or two days a month they plan to be "downtown" -- that isn't nearly as big of a hit to the wallet as it is for four or five days a week...

For anyone interested in what MassDOT itself is doing about WFH, it was presented to the board on Monday 5/24. Here's a link to the presentation on the MassDOT website.

This is a pretty telling slide... close to 90% feel they were as productive as pre-pandemic. I know that my company's experience has been similar if not a little higher.

And I think I'm the best performing employee at my job, which has little to do with reality.

A couple things to add...since I've sat through a bunch of presentations on transportation planning this week at work:

Nationally through the pandemic, telework appears to have peaked at about 40% of the workforce, even under the height of stay-at-home orders. It's already dropped back to 25-35%, with a lot of regional variation (both among metro areas, and within metro areas). And that's all with a lot of major 'corporate office' type worksites closed or restricted. Don't underestimate just how much of the workforce can't work remotely, and then amongst those who can, not everyone wants to. (Moving from data to anecdote, among urban apartment dwellers I know, the vast majority are eager to go back to getting out of the house more often. Keep in mind the plural of anecdote is not data, of course...)

Highway travel patterns here in Mass. have been very interesting. In 2021, I-93 feeding into Boston from both sides has really moved back very close to pre-COVID traffic levels, and the Tobin Bridge isn't far behind. MassPike is still lagging significantly though. There's some evidence of the distribution of different types of workers.

Also - there's growing evidence that the miles traveled by people working from home was not as low as expected. It was low in the early days of the pandemic (think spring 2020, height of restrictions), but there's a lot of evidence that there are many people making more and longer trips when working from home. A lot of people have simply replaced a lot of their pre-pandemic commute travel for other types of travel, and that is disproportionally ending up as car travel.

This is what is driving a lot of the push to improve all-day transit service. The commuters who were most locked into the 9-5 are the ones where commuting has dropped off dramatically. Those with varied commutes (and those who are more likely to not have a car option) are still working in person. And those who are working at home are taking a lot of discretionary trips.

I've seen demographic information on commuter rail (and intercity) ridership that suggests it was disproportionately educated and professional - the exact demographic that has been working from home and will probably continue.

RenegadeMonster wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 8:12 am My office, when they fully reopen does not expect everyone to be back to the office. Most people will just come in a day or 2 a week and work remotely the rest of the time.

Everything is changing to communal desk and booking systems to book your spot and see if there is space before coming into the office. You can also see who will be in the office that day.

We also have the option to continue working completely remotely if we want too.

My company is doing the exact same thing. There are "hot desks" that you reserve before you come in.

I think of this thread every day as I sit in bumper to bumper traffic on 93, while many offices and schools plan to go to 100% in the fall. All this remote society and urban obsolescence jargon I think is wishful thinking. Sorry folks, you're going back to work.