Ramifications of "Brexit" for railways

[David Benton]

The latest railway magazine from England I have read, had Eurostar scrapping stock , and DB laying off staff . It seems channel traffic is dropping off, wether it is because of Brexit or not , I don't know.

[george matthews]

I think Eurostar have some newer trains, with more seats, and so they can carry the same number of passengers with fewer trains. They pay a large fee for using the tunnel, but I think it is assessed by the number of transits, not by the number of passengers.

[Semaphore Sam]

Given the info passed by Mr. Matthews, concerning the increasing capacity of passenger trains, making pax traffic changes more difficult to adjudge (and some may run almost empty, or full), might "Chunnel Traffic" change be more accurately measured by checking the rise or fall of freight traffic? Shouldn't be too hard, I'm thinking, and probably a better indicator of increase or decrease in economic activity. Sam

[David Benton]

It did say the trains been scrapped were nearly 30 years old. More seats per train does make sense.

[David Benton]

The article did cite a drop in traffic, Sam. 8% , not huge,.
I have found a link to an online version of the article.
http://www.railexpress.co.uk/eurostar-c ... nue-falls/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Semaphore Sam]

Hi, Mr. Benton. Relating this drop of load to Brexit (your original conjecture) might be a bit of a stretch; quoting from the article you posted: "The measures are a response to falling passenger numbers and income that fell by 10% in the second quarter of 2016." The 2nd Quarter of 2016 had over 90% of its time prior to the vote; in fact, during that time the expectation was almost universal (Remainers AND Brexiters alike, pollsters, pundits, etc) that Brexit would be defeated. Thus, the success of the Leaves can't have resulted in the drop; the drop happened too early. Sam

[David Benton]

You are probably right , Sam. I tend to think of the year as starting April 1st, (the start of the financial year in New Zealand, and England), when applied to such matters. That would mean the 2nd quarter started June 1st ,ended August 30th.
But , as they don't specify the Financial year, I'll agree it may have little to do with Brexit.

[johnthefireman]

Eurostar’s views on Brexit

mod note , that works John, regards david

[johnthefireman]

Here is a better report on it:

Eurostar gave the bluntest response when asked what the benefits of Brexit are

[george matthews]

It is still by no means certain that Britain will in fact leave the EU. The Supreme Court (formerly the House of Lords Judicial Committee) is at present hearing a case about whether Parliament will have to vote on it first. A majority of MPs of all parties may well vote NO. Theresa May says she wants to proceed without a vote in Parliament. I think there will have to be a vote. What would happen if Parliament votes NO? We shall see.

[johnthefireman]

The return of immigration and customs controls on Eurostar, and (controversially, Good Friday Agreement permitting) possibly on trains between Belfast and Dublin, and (potentially, if Scotland votes for independence) between London and Edinburgh.

See Adieu Trans Europ Express for some comments on cross border trains in the old days before the EU.

[Semaphore Sam]

What would happen if Parliament votes NO? We shall see.

No we won't, wasn't even close...any more wishful conjecture? The Rabid Remainers have been grabbing at these straws since the referendum result was determined; I am sure they will continue. So be it; possibly they can, as upstanding members of the European Elite, defeat democratic results again (as they have so many times), justifying this because the referendum results were due to the votes of low-class "Deplorables". They would be better advised to start a campaign, as did Farage for 25 years, to work to rejoin the EU. Over time, it may well succeed (if there is an EU to rejoin, after another few years). In the meantime, Remainers and Brexiters alike should raise a toast to the prescient Maggie, who kept the UK out of the star-crossed Euro, and made Brexit that much simpler to accomplish. Sam

[David Benton]

It appears even Saint Patrick's day, did not stir up a majority interest in reuniting Ireland. Scotland, on the other hand, seems 50 /50 on a referendum, to leave the UK, and remain part of the EU.
I wouldn't have thought anyone in Ireland would want a border between the 2 halves again, but, either they are not thinking of the consequences of that , or think its worth it to satay part of the UK.
Train operations will become more complicated , whichever way it goes.

[johnthefireman]

I wouldn't have thought anyone in Ireland would want a border between the 2 halves again, but, either they are not thinking of the consequences of that , or think its worth it to satay part of the UK.

I think it goes deeper than that because the open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is enshrined in the Good Friday Peace Agreement. In order to amend it, it means that those sections of the Peace Agreement will need to be renegotiated by the parties to the Agreement. It's not as simple as a decision by the UK or Irish parliaments, nor indeed by the Brexit referendum, as the Peace Agreement has a status independent of the EU. Unless, that is, the UK parliament wants to unilaterally abrogate the Peace Agreement, which would have consequences not only for peace in Ireland but also for the UK's credibility as a signatory of agreements.

[Jeff Smith]

Again, we're mostly arguing politics of Brexit, and not rail ramifications. Seriously, WHY are we talking about the US election here?

If David wants to reopen this, fine, but at this point, we're talking consitution.net and magnacarta.com, not railroad.net. #NUFF