Short Manifests On CSX Recently

I've seen a lot of very short manifests on CSX recently, like Q393 running with 100 or less axles a few times lately, also Q380 yesterday had only 82 axles. Does anyone have a reason for this?

One reason could be the One Plan (don't wait for a full track - just run what they have on some sort of an imaginary schedule)

Another - some think the've been running stuff around Selkirk, because the new Terminal Superintendant at Selkirk is trying like hell to make the remotes work and by running freight around it makes the remotes look like they're doing the job, but even in reduced levels so far and after some very serious accidents and near hits swept under the carpet (no one was removed from service - had it been a conventional crew - heads would have rolled) CSX still thinks they're safer and more productive (really because it eliminates a man from the job - the engineer).

Also, if you pay attention to the AAR's reports on traffic levels they will you alot about whats been going on. Traffic is in the toilet because the economy is also in the toilet. Namely the housing and automotive markets are really in the trouble. When you see trains getting this short - it's not USUALLY that we can't handle the work - it's just not there and for this time of year it is very uncharateristic.

csxchris wrote: Traffic is in the toilet because the economy is also in the toilet. Namely the housing and automotive markets are really in the trouble.

It is? Mr. Dow & Jones beg to differ, I would think. That said, you won't get any argument from me that the American carmakers have a lot of problems. And I would think the high cost of oil also hurts rail business -

Not sure if it is showing up in the car counts yet, but a lot of the Class Ones (especially CSXT) have been taking huge rate increases lately. I'm guessing they're losing some carload traffic to truck as well as to other rail carriers. Is it so much business that you'd start noticing much shorter trains - unlikely - but still worth mentioning. From what I'm hearing, on the Intermodal side they've chased off even more business! As someone else pointed out, major Auto and Construction slowdowns are likely more the culprit.

I know here in Collinwood (Cleveland, Ohio) the yard has been pretty slow the last week or so. Mainly, from what I'm told, is due to auto plant summer shutdowns. I know Ford and GM both have annual July shutdowns for retooling and maintenance. I'd imagine some of the foreign makers with plants in the states do the same. Our class yards is made up completely of auto-racks so we notice big time. As far as the trains running straight through the yard or the van trains, I don't see a noticeable difference in traffic through here.

lvrr325 wrote:

csxchris wrote: Traffic is in the toilet because the economy is also in the toilet. Namely the housing and automotive markets are really in the trouble.

It is? Mr. Dow & Jones beg to differ, I would think. That said, you won't get any argument from me that the American carmakers have a lot of problems. And I would think the high cost of oil also hurts rail business -

Dow & Jones differ with your begging....as the DJI tanked over 300 points this date on poor housing numbers. The Stock Market and the real pace of the economy do not move in lock step.

Traffic on the railroad can sometimes be a very accurate barrometer and crystal ball for the what lays in store for the economy. Yeah the stock market may be up. I think the stock market is heading back into another dot com problem. The stock market is bloated and over inflated - another empty house of cards. In my opinion this dip in traffic is just the bottom falling out of the economy. The stock markets going crazy - but over what? Wages have basically become stagnant for the blue collar worker. The average man can't afford any extras right now. The insurance industry is out of control. The cost of everything has sky rocketed - fuel, housing and food. The news media has been trying to tell us that the fuel prices have had little effect on the overall economy- when in fact they may be the root cause. The housing market and the economy in this country is are real trouble. This time of year is traditionally one of the busiest seasons next to fall peak season. I wanted to believe that maybe the lull in traffic was just a sporadic dip or maybe due to the flooding down south. This one has been going strong for the past three months. Go to the AAR's website and look at the traffic levels. Time to batten down the hatches and stock the pantry, I think we're in for a long storm.

mmi16 wrote:

lvrr325 wrote:

csxchris wrote: Traffic is in the toilet because the economy is also in the toilet. Namely the housing and automotive markets are really in the trouble.

It is? Mr. Dow & Jones beg to differ, I would think. That said, you won't get any argument from me that the American carmakers have a lot of problems. And I would think the high cost of oil also hurts rail business -

Dow & Jones differ with your begging....as the DJI tanked over 300 points this date on poor housing numbers. The Stock Market and the real pace of the economy do not move in lock step.

Having lived through a time when the economy was REALLY in the can - 1978-83 - I'd say what's happening is a ripple, not a meltdown.

That said...I suspect the reason for any decrease lies in the auto-industry slump...that and, manufacturers that have the option are choosing rubber over rail, more and more.

I get out on my commute on Interstate 90, Cleveland to Buffalo, and the roads and rest-stops are STILL clogged with trucks.

And, as for CSX jacking rates: There can be no question that the unplanned work on the Lake Shore and Erie West subdivisions cut into their sacred "record-breaking profits." Since the Snow heirs have little to recommend them, other than stock prices and profit reports, they're going to do what they think they can to continue the green.

It won't work. They'll price themselves out of the market - the businesses that could ship by truck but don't, do so because of savings, not CSX-grade service. Take away the savings, kiss the business goodbye.

lvrr325 wrote:

csxchris wrote: Traffic is in the toilet because the economy is also in the toilet. Namely the housing and automotive markets are really in the trouble.

It is? Mr. Dow & Jones beg to differ, I would think. That said, you won't get any argument from me that the American carmakers have a lot of problems. And I would think the high cost of oil also hurts rail business -

Now you know full well that the stock market neither predicts the future nor accurately represents the present. The entirety of wall street is reactionary.

The many uncertainties in our country (rising interest rates, lack of positive results reported by our highly biased media regarding Iraq, Congress' willingness to dispute piddling differences rather than tackle our burgeoning energy and transportation difficulties, among other things, our suicidal free trade policy giving advantages to the entire world while we stand with our hands tied and a blindfold on, a corporate mentality which views the asset "people" as a disgusting liability) give folks the jitters and they are not spending as they have been.

Just as the markets go through periods of adjustment, so do families and individuals with their spending and savings plans.

It is no secret traffic is down compared to last year: 2006 saw no summer lull nor late summer/autumn spike. Traffic was strong throughout the year. This year returns to previous patterns, but possibly slower than years past (excluding 2006, of course).

Another thing to think about: with interest and energy costs consuming a bigger piece of the pie, there is less left for all the other slices we need. The pie may be as big or bigger than ever before (Dow goes up), but all the other slices get a little less, which is going to take some time before it is reflected in stock prices and company bottom lines.

It is all very complex; don't try to over-simplify it.