Potential MBTA Southern NH Service

New Podcast: "PODCAST: Mask Mandate Madness and Choo Choo Train Chicanery!"
Basically just right wingers Michael Graham and Andrew Cline babbling and crying about the project towards the end of the podcast, they also point out that ridership is lower than before the pandemic DESPITE the fact that Commuter Rail ridership is now rebounding at the same rate as the Subways and Buses. https://nhjournal.com/podcast-mask-mand ... chicanery/
So what are the thoughts around here on how this bill is going to end up?

Are there more democrats or republicans in the senate?

The Republicans have the majority, with 14 republicans compared to 10 democrats.

Then if it passes the governor will sign it as he doesn't know how NH CR subsidy funds can be found.

Sununu has stated that he does not oppose the project, but is questioning how he will get the funds for it, if he's in his senses he won't sign this into law (if it passes the senate), he also claims that he isn't a fan of having the MBTA running the service (who knows why that is?)

Therefore, the bill will probably pass, 14:10. The governor will presumably sign it, unless he wants to take a "nuanced" position of studying something without having a viable plan to build it.

[Sununu] also claims that he isn't a fan of having the MBTA running the service (who knows why that is?)

Why? MBTA/Keolis is Massachusetts butting it's way into NH, with all its rules and red tape and income tax for employees and presumptive higher costs, although they do have a trackage agreement with the B&M and now CSX which nobody else has (unless BSRR has a double-secret agreement).

A lot of the desirability of a service rests with, how many passengers are going to use the darn thing? Recent transit studies in MA feel like they are using a "valid" methodology, but the projected passenger counts rest on so many assumptions as to be useless. In my mind, a new service of this type needs to attract thousands of passengers a day, within five years, in order to be viable.

I often wondered if it would make sense for the MBTA to put a stop in at the state line in Tyngsboro. The Pheasant Lane Mall has an abundance of parking. The Mall may be in favor of the increased traffic count that could drive some sales. It is easy access from Spit Brook onto the DW. Leaving the Mall it is a straight shot onto Rt. 3 north or south. Commuters would not have to fight downtown Nashua traffic and free parking at the Mall may be an enticement.

I think that was one of the proposals, for a "South Nashua" station at the border or right over it. Solves the problem of NH having to fund an operating deficit. Mall owner gets to charge for parking, probably pays for barebones station. But this gets only one station, trains have to continue deadheading back to Boston or up to Nashua. NH gets some traffic relief, MA gets some traffic relief, frees up CR parking further down the line, collects income tax without having to provide any services. Car less Lowell residents get access to bypass MA sales tax. MBTA picks up additional cost to operate a few more miles.

South Nashua is planned to be right above the MA-NH state border, the previously considered "Spit Brook" location was dismissed in favor of the Pheasant Lane Mall Location.

Therefore, the bill will probably pass, 14:10. The governor will presumably sign it, unless he wants to take a "nuanced" position of studying something without having a viable plan to build it.

If the bill were to hypothetically pass and get signed into law (god forbid), how much of the funding for the project would this take away, and from where could it potentially be made up for?

And also, since the bill is still in the senate committee, could it possibly be killed by them before ever actually being voted on?
- Thanks

He’s probably against using the MBTA because of costs. Also there is a lot of money in the new federal infrastructure bill for new intercity rail corridors that could be potentially used for Southern NH passenger rail. In this new era of remote and hybrid work and less frequent commutes for the white collar workers and given the near term Federal funding opportunities - an intercity route (with Amtrak or someone else as an operator) with a few frequencies per day, and more comfortable equipment may be a better fit and more cost effective approach than a many frequency full fledged commuter service - at least starting out. Something that looks a little more like the Downeaster for instance - and given Amtrak being in the verge of new equipment - shared equipment between the Downeaster and an NH service could be very feasible. More frequent commuter level Service could always be added down the route if they feel the demand is there or if commuting trends change again down the road. Don’t want to get too much more into the idea of this as a intercity route as I know there’s a separate thread on the Amtrak forum for that but I think it’s at least reasonable for the state to examine which makes the most sense to start with based on where we are in 2022.

This sounds all well and good for New Hampshire, but the complication with this is trying to run a different service intermixed with the MBTA service. MBTA is already taking capacity for their service and their commuters, and the rest of the capacity is allocated to the Downeaster service. So operationally it would very difficult to get the MBTA to disrupt their existing service to give new trains an operating window to hit desired arrival/departure times. By extending existing MBTA trains (and add capacity to them) you protect the MBTA's existing service while offering New Hampshire residents more frequent service and more attractive arrival/departure times. I'll also point out that the Manchester-Boston trip is about 55 miles and projected to be in the 90-minute range, which is on-par with commuter-style service already offered by the MBTA and planned for in their South Coast Rail expansion. It's not really quite far enough to shift to Amtrak. By comparison, Portland to Boston, which is how the Downeaster started, is roughly twice that distance.

MBTA's position with service in response to the pandemic is to move toward higher-frequency all-day service less catered toward the "9-5" commuter. We'll see how well that holds with offices opening back up. MassDOT has already released traffic studies that show vehicle travel is at/above pre-pandemic levels in the traditional rush hours, and while the MBTA ridership is trending higher it still sits well below what it was before.

I'll add the capital cost for using any other operator (besides Amtrak and MBTA) would be significant, as both of these entities can largely leverage their existing engine and coach fleets. There may be some cost but it would be far less than anyone else.

If Amtrak runs the service (which is likely what Sununu has in mind), it would go up to Concord, which is 79 track miles from Boston on the New Hampshire Main, (I personally believe Amtrak service should run all the way up the line to Lincoln, but Amtrak clearly has no interest in this). So while Amtrak offers more destinations, the MBTA offers more trains, which is better for NH? Who knows, I think the MBTA would be better to go with first, with Amtrak service coming later on.

Running to Lincoln would mean kicking off Hobo RR or interfering with their excursion schedule. Weirs Beach
(Lake Winnipeasaukee) would be a popular stop, especially for the summer.

79 miles is still shorter than the Hiawatha or Metro-North's Port Jervis Line.

As a point of clarification Concord is about 73 miles from Boston, depending where the station would be. MBTA's longest commuter service, operated in agreement with Rhode Island, is about 63 miles down to Wickford Junction.

Running to Lincoln would mean kicking off Hobo RR or interfering with their excursion schedule.

This is true, but it could be possible for them and Amtrak to work together in order for both to still be able to use the line, such as double tracking or scheduling changes.

As a point of clarification Concord is about 73 miles from Boston, depending where the station would be. MBTA's longest commuter service, operated in agreement with Rhode Island, is about 63 miles down to Wickford Junction.

I stand corrected, and while the MBTA could potentially run all the way up to Concord (which they did briefly for 13 months in the early 80s) the current plan only shows MBTA going as far up as Manchester, with Amtrak's plan going up to Concord, if the MBTA were to ever potentially expand to Concord, I think most people would choose to take the MBTA over Amtrak because of lower price and higher frequency and Amtrak would have to extend even further into NH to attract a new demographic (tourists)

Using my own eye's many people take the Downeaster to Haverhill over the T coming from Boston.

Yes that is true, I forgot that the Downeaster is actually surprisingly popular between Haverhill and Boston, it may just be the same if both the MBTA and Amtrak proposals are hopefully built.
Also, question, I know that the MBTA already owns trackage up to Nashua, but up to where in Nashua? is it only until the state line or do they own trackage all the way to the planned Crown St Nashua Station site in Nashua Yard?
Also I know I have mentioned this before, but does anybody else think its strange that Amtrak, who will offer Intercity Service plans to stop in Merrimack, but the MBTA, who will offer Commuter Rail service doesn't?