Nacho66 wrote:Easy access to potential stations on the Cutoff abound.
For example, Dresher.
Where the Cutoff goes over Susquehanna Rd., there is ample available space for a station, direct access to local roads, and parking.
Same for County Line Rd, the Oreland side of Ft. Wash., and at least 2 potential sites near Plymouth Mtg.
I'm quite familiar with both those areas. In Fort Washington, stations are proposed at the two locations you mention: Dreshertown and the R5 connection. While there's space for a station and access to Susquehanna Rd., it's still a long and roundabout trip to get to the offices in Fort Washington. It's even more roundabout from the R5 location.
As for Plymouth Meeting, the proposed station location is near where the Cut-Off goes over Butler Pike. It's a cornfield, literally. There's nothing but a coupla small industrial buildings and Danella Corp even a long walking distance from that site.
Also, I don't understand your wording regarding "3-seat rides".
Well let's take a hypothetical commuter: call him "Andy." Andy is a longtime supporter of public transit who lives in Newtown, Bucks County; and a number of years ago, he took a job in one of those office buildings in King of Prussia.
If we had a Cross-County Metro, here's what his commute would look like. He drives down to Woodbourne, parks his car, waits for the train, and rides all the way to First Avenue (we'll assume the Cross-County Metro detours through Norristown as Montco would like it to[#]). He gets off at First Avenue (which is just the other side of the Turnpike from the malls in King of Prussia, and he's still a mile away from his office as the crow flies, more like a mile and a half to get there via First Ave and Allendale Road. Too far to walk, so he's gotta take a shuttle bus. Because the offices in this area are so sprawled out, that bus goes all over hell's half acre before getting to Andy's office.
Even assuming a good connection, it probably takes 15 to 20 minutes to get that last mile of the trip. So it'll be on the order of an hour and a half total to make that trip via the Cross-County Metro. Driving, Mapquest tells me, is gonna take just 50 minutes. That's an extra hour plus every day. You think anybody's gonna do that by choice?
Perhaps you view the CCM as a route just to generate riders; I also see it as a way for 1-seat rides between rail routes - i.e. between the R5 and the R3, or between the R6 and the R5. NYP would only be a 2-seat ride from any station on this line!
A one-seat ride between rail routes is still a three-seat ride overall, with two waits for transfers. Remember that a transfer enroute cuts your potential ridership in half.
Development along this route has been exploding for the last 15 years. This line no longer goes through nowhere.
Agreed that the areas the line goes through aren't "nowhere"(*), and haven't been for a while; the geography of the line, usually being on the wrong side of the Turnpike (same thing in the Willow Grove-Horsham area), means you can't get there from here.
#--if the XCM stays on the Trenton Cut-Off, which is a lot cheaper than detouring through Norristown and King of Prussia, the situation is even worse, because Andy's shuttle bus has to go all the way from the South Gulph park/ride, through the congested 202/South Gulph intersection, wait for the lights at the mall entrances off 202, left onto Allandale, and eventually to Andy's office.
*--in fact, the development around Fort Washington is old enough that stuff is actually being torn down and rebuilt these days: see the former Amtrak reservations center for example.