Bramdeisroberts wrote:I was thinking more in terms of fuel economy, isn't the 15-20% improvement seen one of the major reasons for the prime mover swap in the -ECO rebuilds?
Though lately the Gulf States seem to be doing their part (and then some) to make fuel economy seem totally unimportant, it still matters to operators. Otherwise, what incentive would there be for GE to push for a GEVO repower kit for the Gennies?
These "re-kitting" schemes change a whole lot more than just the prime mover. There's additional incentive among commuter rail operators to purge DC traction motors in favor of AC's, since maintenance scale starts getting long-term awkward once passenger DC rosters start shrinking into a slow oblivion. It'll eventually hit a tipping point where the DC motors have to go even in cases when the old locomotives as a package still have life left in them. The HSP-46 shares the exact same AC traction motors as the Genesis P32AC-DM, so the re-kitting becomes an especially attractive prospect for giving a cheap Amtrak-dispersal P42 its maximum possible lifespan on the commuter rail aftermarket. That's going to matter more to commuter rail agencies that are approaching or past that DC vs. AC tipping point on their rosters. Somebody like Metra would have no incentive to re-kit because they just rebuilt their whole F40PH roster to F40PH-3C's, and have committed to another 15 years of majority DC-motor rosters and stockpiling parts therein. GO Transit, on the other hand, went for a 20-years-and-out retirement of its F59PH's rather than go forward balancing a roster of some midlife-overhauled EMD's with DC motors and some new MPXpresses with AC motors (and in the process pumped the aftermarket full of relatively fresh F59's such that the combined North American F59PH/PHI pool becomes the second-most attractive aftermarket "re-kitting" prospect out there after Amtrak releases the P42's).
Getting on a common technology baseline to manage the total cost of ownership over lifetime also plays a role. And in the case of the DC-to-AC shift, the time for cleaning house is coming up soon or right now for a lot of passenger rosters. If that weren't the case you probably would be seeing a lot higher % of the remaining 1990's-era power getting greenlit for regular old midlife overhaul instead of being mass-replaced so many years sooner than any previous decade's mainstay power was replaced. Hell...you'd probably see commuter railroads avoiding new orders like the plague and midlife overhauling anything that moved if that let them sidestep being guinea pigs for these brand- brand- new emissions tiers. The railroads would be happy to pat themselves on the back getting an F40PH-3C that *just works* back from the overhaul factory with a Tier 1 exhaust retrofit to the same tried-and-true prime mover rather than put up with the pain and suffering of debugging an F125, Charger, or HSP-46. But going through that trial now makes their lives easier in 20 years to not have to maintain obsolete parts. That wasn't true of the aftermarket 12 years ago...but it is now with the DC-to-AC shift hitting tipping point. If it weren't for things like that and a whole confluence of events
in addition to the emissions hullabaloo, there'd be no growth market in passenger for re-kittings and no growth market in passenger for the "hermit crab" gut-and-rebuilds. But we do have that confluence of events, so the market prospects are
cresting in potentially big way as we head towards 2020.