Amtrak July 2021 ridership report

https://www.amtrak.com/content/dam/proj ... y-2021.pdf

Amtrak July ridership. Other than the Auto Train which it looks like its doing great this summer Amtrak has some work to do for its federally subsidized services. Still a greater than 300 million operating loss for the NEC as of July.

Curious to see that Amtrak's "Monthly Performance Report" details only Year-to-Date (YTD) numbers rather than monthly numbers. How is anyone supposed to compare month-to-month changes in the corporation's financial position with public reporting like this? To me this is a very odd way to report the numbers.

Train60 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:31 pm Curious to see that Amtrak's "Monthly Performance Report" details only Year-to-Date (YTD) numbers rather than monthly numbers. How is anyone supposed to compare month-to-month changes in the corporation's financial position with public reporting like this? To me this is a very odd way to report the numbers.

You have to compare between months - in this case between June and July to get that.

lordsigma12345 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 07, 2021 3:15 pm You have to compare between months - in this case between June and July to get that.

An income statement represent a period of time. Most companies externally report quarterly and/or yearly numbers but it is normal for companies to report monthly numbers internally so that they can closely monitor trends. No company that I know of manages their business solely based on YTD numbers.

Reporting numbers only as YTD masks (hide might be a better word) the month-over-month trends of a business because the only way to figure out what happened last month is to manually compare the numbers reported in the two months worth of YTD reports. (as you pointed out)

A few years ago Amtrak issued monthly financial reports that showed both monthly and YTD numbers, as example this report from January 2016:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160328161 ... y-2016.pdf

How much of this ridership dip is due to artificially constrained capacity ?

The real benefit of month to month numbers is to see any trends. Telling me that the Keystones were at 15% utilization between January and July is not very helpful at all. Anecdotally I can say they have increased ridership since June.

The huge benefit of these numbers is that it shows what break even for these lines might really be. If the Keystones, for example, are getting 50% farebox recovery with 15% utilization, break even is probably a lot lower than I would have expected.

west point wrote: ↑Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:53 am How much of this ridership dip is due to artificially constrained capacity ?

What is artificially constrained capacity?
It is either constrained or not, either way very real and not artificial.

I’ve ridden the Acela about 8 times in the last month, and it was packed to the brim each time.

On the other hand in all three service lines - ridership is at or better than forecast for the year.

electricron wrote: ↑Wed Sep 08, 2021 10:27 am

west point wrote: ↑Wed Sep 08, 2021 12:53 am How much of this ridership dip is due to artificially constrained capacity ?

What is artificially constrained capacity?
It is either constrained or not, either way very real and not artificial.

Maybe "deliberately" constrained would suit -- connoting that the constraint is self-imposed?

I doubt deliberately is the word, unless it's a choice of those who were furloughed and now Amtrak's having trouble getting back.

August numbers now available - and Amtrak has also compiled FY end numbers. Not great numbers everywhere - although they did slightly better than forecast on all three service line. Once again the Auto Train is currently Amtrak’s shining star which appears on track to end the year with an official profit including covering its fully allocated costs while the rest of the LDs loses more than 300 million.

https://www.trains.com/trn/news-reviews ... er-routes/
Trains analysis - Amtrak appears to be dramatically lowering NEC fares including on Acela to get back ridership - which is probably necessary especially for Acela where business ridership is not going to be anywhere near pre-pandemic. However the NEC service lines are still finishing the year with a large operating loss. Some of the analysis is admittedly a bit misleading for LD trains - while I’m an LD supporter it doesn’t really make sense to tarnish the other routes. While sure they make some points - the LD trains are regaining ridership and revenue faster than the rest - with the exception of Auto Train they still have big operating losses. The Auto Train of course did have a great year and looks like it has potential to set it self apart from the LD network as a profitable route. Looking at the analysis also does say something about who is traveling - the faster return of riders to LD trains and the plunge in NER and Acela fares indicates that it is leisure travelers who are traveling these days and business travelers are few and far between. The lower fares appear to be returning riders to the corridor but they’re going to have to work to get that NEC operating loss back to positive territory.

Mr. Lord, your report has me wondering; WHAT IF Amtrak was ready to "sign on the dotted line" the contract to procure the Acela II's and the economic devastation COVID has caused was evident i.e. COVID broke during '18, rather than '20, would have they proceeded or walked away?

Secondly, I note your comments regarding Auto Train. I realize I have stated here "I'm done with it", but that hardly means everyone should think same. It's just simply, coming from the Chicago area, AT only saves me 400 miles of driving compared with the 800 is saves anyone in the Northeast. It further does not save me a wink of time, and for a one way $693 fare, "just not worth it".

For those for whom driving safely has become a challenge (we've all "seen 'em out there" in the left lane of the Interstate, weaving, driving a ten YO auto, hunched so low behind the wheel that you'd think they were in a self driving auto), the "meh" experience I had on my last ride (NB; leaving the day Kobe Bryant was killed) would mean nothing to this clientele. It would mean 800 miles less on this apparent "killer highway".

Finally surprise!! just checked fare for #52 (29 Jan) 1 psgr in a BR, auto on the rack $707. That compares, in my case, with the 400 miles saved @ $.40/mi gas and mtce - $160, $150 hotel, $50 Dinner = $360.

The good thing with the monthly data for August and September is that we are seeing gains across the board especially in the Northeast. September was tougher than August though.

Emissourian.com

In July, the Missouri River Runner line saw 11,693 riders, and in August, it saw 10,390, according to Marc Magliari, spokesperson for Amtrak. That compares with 7,024 riders in May and 6,989 in June when the train only made one round trip per day.

This shows in an experiment - the Covid mishap - that "frequency" even if only two trains a day in each direction finds significant extra riders. Amtrak will reap rewards in coming years by increasing frequency of trains on established routes as much as opening up new routes...