Will They Ever Return?

If one knows their way around the websites of the four major hotel chains at which I have occasion to stay as well as the one airline I fly (Amtrak? last trip was 52 (the day Kobe Bryant was killed); haven't ruled out future trips, but have ruled out going out of my way to ride them), who needs third party sites to mess things up?

Author's note: hafta admit, how I titled this topic when originating it, gives lots of leeway.

lensovet wrote: ↑Fri Oct 06, 2023 9:14 pm I don't know who the center of the universe is, but the 50% numbers being cited for Metra are simply not relevant here. Weekend ridership is regularly above pre-pandemic levels. Tu-Th ridership is consistently hovering around 70-75%.

To reiterate this point, earlier today I was looking at BART's ridership numbers, which are equally anemic to Metra's and show how far off NYC is compared to the rest of the country, center of the universe or not.

BART is averaging less than 2/3 ridership on weekends and around 40% ridership overall. That is, BART's weekend ridership recovery is worse than NYC's weekdays.

Thank you, Mr. Lensovet, for getting this back on topic.

I heard a radio report, WBBM 780/105.9, that the CTA's ridership is about 54% that of 2019.

The report further noted the ridership, such as to both MDW and ORD, is stronger where front-line workers must go, and considerably weaker to stations in the Loop (where knowledge workers would have gone).

Subway hits 1 billion riders 6 weeks earlier than last year:

The MTA has recorded its billionth rider on the subway for 2023, the second year in a row the system has surpassed ten-digit ridership in the post-COVID era.
…
The milestone came six weeks earlier than it did last year, demonstrating the continued post-COVID influx of riders back to the system.
…
An average of 5.5 million people rode the subway each day in 2019, a number that has not been seen again since the pandemic started, though the system has regularly surpassed 4 million day riders this year.

Daily ridership on the subway is typically about 70% of what it was on a comparable pre-pandemic day, according to MTA ridership data. Ridership is closer to pre-pandemic levels at off-peak hours, like at night, midday, and on weekends, and is adjusting service accordingly.

The MTA also insists the real number of riders is actually much higher due to an increasing number of people skipping the fare, and are still holding out hope that the subway can return to its previous splendor.

https://www.amny.com/transit/nyc-subway ... ders-2023/

I'm certain that the increasing incidence of violent crimes against persons in Chicago is "not exactly" helping METRA's remaining anemic ridership.

I'm at a point of "not going down there if I don't have to"; all of which means I will next hear the Chicago Symphony perform at Ravinia next year. Guess my next "concert fix" will be the Cleveland Orchestra in Miami come January.

An auto Salesman's, who has sold me my last three Lex, husband was carjacked at gunpoint RIGHT IN FRONT OF THEIR CONDO in the Wicker Park area. I was at the Dealer earlier this week and another Salesman told me "they're out of there, and (somehow I don't know how) got their price".

While I'm sure I could walk without incident from CUS to Orchestra Hall and back, why risk it when you must pass by the La Salle Street "office canyon" which has become a "ghost town" since COVID. But since a "GF of sorts" also likes the CSO, that where she lives means drive down there, which simply I'm not about to do anymore.

Finally to close rail related, I again reiterate that METRA should be aggressively trying to get out of the 200 car Coradia order with Alstom. Maybe our Barristers around here could comment if "unforeseen circumstances (COVID)" could be a defense. Further, with Alstom's now well publicized financial difficulties (Bombardier, who lest we forget was acquired by Alstom, has now become a "hex" to more parties than Amtrak) the question can be risen if they can even perform, which would give rise to voiding the contract.

I don't think any transit agency can exit a contract for new equipment until they can demonstrate the manufacturer did not meet the terms of the contract without basically setting themselves up to be sued for the value of the contract (and still not get the equipment).

In terms of the Metra order for cars, that is a joint procurement with VRE and uses a mixture of federal, state, and local funding, so absent a demonstrable failure on Alstom's part to adhere to the contract there is no easy exit (per the contract, the first delivery should be sometime in 2024, so until that delivery fails, they can't be shown not to be performing to the contract).

Back to topic: it seems that in general non-commuter traffic has generally returned to (or surpassed) pre-pandemic levels, but that classic commuter traffic hasn't and won't, which I find unfortunate (I can generally tell in a call with customers, even if no cameras are on, which customers still are primarily remote and are primarily in the office simply by the general sense of team or group cohesion (the in office teams or groups seem more cohesive than the remote ones)).

Given Alstom's performance on the Avelio, it's literally and figuratively a matter of time...



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Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:29 am I'm certain that the increasing incidence of violent crimes against persons in Chicago...

"incidence" is a statistical claim and so can (and is) statistically disprovable across most categories of crime for Chicago, New York and other big cities--in general they are safer--have a LOWER incidence of violent crime than their suburbs and safer than obscure non-transit cities like Indianapolis or Columbus, and have an incidence that is FALLING from 2021/2022. Data for Chicago in particular is here: https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/v ... ation.html and shows most categories falling below their immediate post-pandemic highs.

Id grant "increasing fear of violence" which is clearly a trend, such as in the 2022 midterms particulary among older and more conservative Americans*

But if you're actually trying to guide public policy or make personal decisions about realistic personal safety risks a rail trip into the city is likely safer per passenger-mile than driving and will take you to a place that is safer per capita than wherever your trip would be starting from.

* hypotheisis: because media that caters to older and conservative Americans finds its audience captivated by violent urban images, and not interested in actual crime-incidence data.

RandallW wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 7:53 am In terms of the Metra order for cars, that is a joint procurement with VRE and uses a mixture of federal, state, and local funding, so absent a demonstrable failure on Alstom's part to adhere to the contract there is no easy exit (per the contract, the first delivery should be sometime in 2024, so until that delivery fails, they can't be shown not to be performing to the contract).

Joint with VRE? In that case, I would bet that most of the cars will go to VRE and any options for extra cars will NOT be exercised. Metra's going to get dragged along here.

Arlington wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 9:27 am But if you're actually trying to guide public policy or make personal decisions about realistic personal safety risks a rail trip into the city is likely safer per passenger-mile than driving and will take you to a place that is safer per capita than wherever your trip would be starting from.

Wholly agree Mr. Arlington, even though the random shooting at autos on expressways is down (the bad guys must have reasoned "what's in it for us? beyond some thrill of taking out some suburbanite in his Bennie, Caddy, or Lex). My issue is the walk X the Loop and getting near that urban canyon of La Salle Street.

Some just might say "get a cab". That's simply not me; last one I was in was overseas during '18 (Uber, "huh").

The only way that the occurrence of crime is less for CHI or NYC vs IND or other cities is if you try to rationalize it by normalizing against population or square miles.....

HeyJackass.com has the stats for Chicago in an easy to understand format.

Right now we are well on track to have close to two homicides a day. Every 13 hours and 17 minutes (as of today), someone is killed in Chicago. Not just gun violence -- they count knives, blunt force trauma, etc. as well.

Carjackings you say? 1100 for the year by now. That's slightly over three a day.

Cities like STL and IND may have higher rates of homicide, but neither are going to break 100 for the year, while Chicago is already at the edge of 600, and there's still 40+ days left in the year...

If you're going to say that conservative media is hyper-sensationalizing the problem for their "older viewers", then I guess I have to counter that perhaps liberal media is trying to minimize the actual problem for the younger, more liberal viewers?...

Then again, cities tend to have single party rule, and have had single party rule for the most part of the last 50 years and counting....

I seldom lock a topic; in fact, I can't remember the last time. I'll give it one more chance. Although the title is, as noted above, a bit broad, the intent seems to have been discussion about post-pandemic ridership.

This is not a topic on crime, it's a topic on ridership; I'll allow some leeway in terms of what's keeping ridership low, but let's not go OT too far.

I haven't monitored this topic. Due to a report, I'm monitoring it now.

Jeff, as a member of management for a company with a significant downtown Chicago presence, I will say it's categorically undeniable that our return to office policy (or lack therefore of) and the purchase of new office space (not leased) have been influenced by rising crime in the city core. And we are a very socially liberal company in terms of what we support and promote...

We've experienced shootings, robberies and carjackings immediately outside our offices, and many employees no longer feel secure coming to or leaving work, especially those who have to walk several blocks to either the CTA or Metra. The concerns were elevated to the extent of spending ~$30M to purchase and renovate the suburban office space. That's not a decision made on a whim.

Unfortunately, as with Metra's untimely equipment order, we signed new leases right before COVID.

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Jeffrey, I wholly concur with the thoughts Mr. Olesen immediately expressed regarding crime, or the possibility of such, against persons and the impact it has on mass transit ridership. However, should the discussion evolve into addressing non-violent financial crimes, such as "perped" by the likes of Bernie M or SBF, then the topic has moved beyond the scope of what I intended when I originated it. At that time, I would expect that it to be dealt with at Administrative level around here.

The topic at hand was post-pandemic ridership. To the extent crime increases during that era affects ridership just seems tangential at best to me. What I want to avoid is turning this into a crime topic, much the way I feel about politics; to the extent it affects ridership is about as far as I want to go.