The future of the Brightline model in the US

I think the future is smaller self-driving vehicles. Brightline will be facing some headwinds: If they need to borrow more, interest rates are going to go up sharply, and fewer people will commute post-covid. Also needed for success is reasonable insurance costs.

Self-driving vehicles are still at least around a decade away from being fine-tuned, not to mention what kind of regulatory and legal battle they will face when they hit the market en masse. I'd also imagine they would be exorbitantly expensive for a while, just like how electric cars are still expensive compared to their gas-powered cousins. It's going to be at least a few years of generating a decent electric used car market before we start seeing more of them on the road.

I don't think it's really fair to judge Brightline's model at this moment until Orlando opens up. Interest rates going up or not, they are very deep into their South Florida operations and seem to be doing well there. Brightline's use of their property for smart real estate moves is definitely helping keep the company afloat, but I think they might not even need to rely on that once they get Orlando open. The interest rate thing will definitely affect Brightline West, and it wouldn't shock me if it goes belly up as it has with the other 2 or 3 operators beforehand.

I don't think Brightline is shooting for commuter service (with their own money at least, they are partnering with Broward/Miami-Dade counties to have some sort of commuter service on their rails), I have not heard of people commuting between Orlando-Miami-Fort Lauderdale. They are aiming for the large tourist market Florida has, and if you can get Disney people to the beaches and vice versa without them needing to fly again or rent a car, you're talking about huge potential

eolesen wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:06 pm Yet the UP and BNSF manage do do just that on their Chicago commuter services.

30+ services per day *per line* that are intermixed with freight (as well as Amtrak on the BNSF), and they've managed this for over 100 years.

As said in my previous statement, Brightline is targeting a huge tourist market that is captive. Many people who go to Disney or Fort Lauderdale/Miami are stuck there, unless they want to spend more money flying (and it's a whole process just to fly for barely 30 minutes), or rent a car and drive on some notorious highways (you should've seen some of the things I witnessed when I lived there). As a result, if Brightline offers a budget-friendly, no-hassle trip between some of the most visited spots in the country to a very captive customer pool, they can pull some insane numbers. Add Tampa into the mix, and you're golden. To be able to go to Disney, attend sports games, and be able to visit the beaches on BOTH coasts of Florida within a few days (if that) on a trip/vacation is very appealing to tourists.

Commuters are not a captive audience. They live in the area where commuter rail operates, and usually have their own vehicles. These areas are generally not tourist spots. You would need to offer a very good deal and high speeds to make people give up driving in an area where they've been driving forever due to lack of public transportation. As a result, many commuter lines are unable to make a profit and have to rely on the state for help. An efficient commuter rail strategy in areas where it doesn't exist would be to form PPP's with Class I's like with Metra. That way, there's less of a boondoggle to happen since everything is being operated by the same people, and you might get the Class I's to let passenger trains have priority over freight.

There is a big elephant in the USA that has been ignored. That is the total costs of autos both new and used. Prices of new cars are thru the past ceilings for most persons. That will be especially true once the excess cash in many purses has been spent. Buy a vehicle by financing = heavy monthly payments.

Insurance. I pay ~$100 / moth for a 25-year-old car. 15-year-old car $650. Cannot imagine how much a new $40k+ insurance would be. Car tag fees. New tires $150 per tire. Just received a bid for one of the cars that I could not sell for $4k more than I spent for it.

What happens when there are no more used cars for the young set that wants their first car? How will those get around? Open question

Self-driving vehicles are ideal for a dedicated ROW that is a railroad line. No steering, no bicycles, no weaving/unpredictable automobiles, and supposedly no trespassing. Everyone obeying speed limits and distancing, automatically. There couldn't be any freight. Say 20 person vehicles so if they crashed the liability would only be millions, running every 3-5 minutes at rush hour. Guild the lily by putting up fencing and warning signs. This would not be applicable to Brightline's present route which is probably too busy and has shared freight.

I hear you about the rising auto prices! Betcha railroad maintenance and rolling stock are going up too, as the shipping costs from the People's Republic are through the roof. Firestone quoted me about $1000 all-in for a new set of Bridgestones which works out to 1.2¢-1.4¢ a mile just for the rubber (at list price).

Interest rates were so low recently. Likely increase could double the cost of the borrowed money!