Grand Central Madison TIMETABLES AND RIDERSHIP THREAD

[Commuter X]

I think I finally understand what is happening

The opening of GCM forced the LIRR to run more trains with fewer cars
Some trains which had 12 cars, now have 10, or sometimes 8 cars
This causes overcrowding and makes ticket collection on these trains impossible
Due to this shortfall in revenue (which includes fare evasion on the NYC Subway and Bus), the MTA is proposing to raise fares in September

Translation --> Higher fares for a lower level of service

Meanwhile, The Ministry of Truth in Albany is still patting each other on the back for finishing this $16B boondoggle which was not needed or wanted by most passengers

[Head-end View]

The entire plan got screwed up because of Covid. The project was based and built on present and future ridership projections as they existed before Covid. But because of the Pandemic several things happened that affected the project which could not have been predicted.

One is with many people working from home, there is less ridership overall so GCM is not being used to anywhere near its full potential, at least not yet.

And second, Covid also delayed the arrival of the new fleet of M-9 cars. If the entire fleet had been available for service when GCM opened there might well be longer trains and less crowding. Luckily that can still happen soon.

The only mistake I can see that MTA made based on pre-Covid projections is that they overestimated the percentage of riders that would divert from Penn to Grand Central. With stars in their eyes they envisioned GCM as the LIRR's great new Manhattan Headquarters Terminal with Penn Sta. being relegated to a lesser role. And that would have suited LIRR just fine because Penn is such a hassle for them, with all the complexity of having to co-exist with Amtrak and NJ Transit. Having their own Manhattan Terminal was the gleam in their eyes.

Fortunately this was easy to correct to some extent by modifying routes with some trains going back to Penn instead of GCM. And if the percentages should change again in future years to favor GCM, routes can again be modified.

So the bottom line is, that it's not the MTA's fault that Covid happened, and messed up all the conventional wisdom that the Grand Central plan was based on.

[Commuter X]

Only the MTA would use a study that uses statistics from at least three years ago that is no longer relevant

[MACTRAXX]

[C X: H-E View's post explains plain and simple what "The Problem" caused in terms of ridership changes in the aftermath of the dreaded pandemic - I fully agree that the changes that resulted - such as WFH percentages rising could NOT have been predicted back in 2019. Had ESA opened before March 2020 LIRR ridership changes with GCTM's opening may have been a whole lot different than what we have now...

If you or anyone interested have been following how other commuter rail operations in the US have been affected since "The Problem" began the MTA actually has done somewhat well with the current average weekday percentages in the 70 percent range - and full recovery to 100 percent for weekend ridership. Other RR.Net Forums in the Passenger Rail section have covered how other "peer" systems responded...

To be continued...MACTRAXX

[MACTRAXX]

Tell that to the geniuses who decided half hourly inbound service on all major lines from 8pm to 1 am was a great idea...Running those empty trains is a total waste.

TG: I wanted to respond to this subject sooner - as a 18 year+ member of RR.Net what sometimes will
happen is that one can forget exactly where a given subject was - in this instance it only took a back review of
this topic to find what I was looking for...With the GCT Timetables/Ridership active and current it was easy...

Half hourly LIRR *WESTBOUND* service between 8 PM and 1 AM from both Huntington and Ronkonkoma was
a way to build up late-evening ridership offering more service options for both routes. Would you rather have
seen these specific trains operating as deadhead non-revenue equipment moves? This is NOT a waste if the
MU equipment in question has to be moved in some manner for storage or maintenance (best examples)...

The LIRR has always been an EASTBOUND and WESTBOUND Railroad...The dreaded terms that use IN and OUT
have never been used as far as I know by the LIRR either in print or conversation...The only recent time was the
Draft timetables mid-2022 which were in a MNCR format. When GCTM opened in the past six months the LIRR
PDF timetable formats were basically all retained with the two prime directions marked as always...MACTRAXX

[Commuter X]

You are being too PC when you refer to it as "The Problem"
We all know where it came from and what caused it

Outside of "The Ministry of Truth", using outdated, three-year old statistics for a project that by most accounts has not gone well, would get you a "RGE" at your current position

RGE = Resume Generating Event

[ExCon90]

Only the MTA would use a study that uses statistics from at least three years ago that is no longer relevant

My recollection is that construction began well before the earliest beginnings of a pandemic were noted, and certainly no one envisioned what would actually develop.

[Commuter X]

How could anyone envision Covid in the 1950's -- When the East Side Access project was first proposed

The current schedule is a disaster, with old assumptions on the use of Penn vs GCM
Additionally, reducing the round-trip travel time by 40 minutes compared to using Penn Station is 100% fiction

Here's hoping that the "Ministry of Truth" appoints a F/T LIRR president who understands how the RR works and can adjust the schedule using today's numbers, not pre-covid statistics

[edflyerssn007]

The entire plan got screwed up because of Covid. The project was based and built on present and future ridership projections as they existed before Covid. But because of the Pandemic several things happened that affected the project which could not have been predicted.

One is with many people working from home, there is less ridership overall so GCM is not being used to anywhere near its full potential, at least not yet.

And second, Covid also delayed the arrival of the new fleet of M-9 cars. If the entire fleet had been available for service when GCM opened there might well be longer trains and less crowding. Luckily that can still happen soon.

The only mistake I can see that MTA made based on pre-Covid projections is that they overestimated the percentage of riders that would divert from Penn to Grand Central. With stars in their eyes they envisioned GCM as the LIRR's great new Manhattan Headquarters Terminal with Penn Sta. being relegated to a lesser role. And that would have suited LIRR just fine because Penn is such a hassle for them, with all the complexity of having to co-exist with Amtrak and NJ Transit. Having their own Manhattan Terminal was the gleam in their eyes.

Fortunately this was easy to correct to some extent by modifying routes with some trains going back to Penn instead of GCM. And if the percentages should change again in future years to favor GCM, routes can again be modified.

So the bottom line is, that it's not the MTA's fault that Covid happened, and messed up all the conventional wisdom that the Grand Central plan was based on.

I totally agree with what you've said here, with some caveats. I don't think the full M9 fleet will be enough and we're nowhere near getting the M9A procurement going, so LIRR is going to be short for quite a while. It's obvious that the goal up in Albany is to merge LIRR and MetroNorth into one big operation. That being said, I partially blame COVID on the MTA, because if they didn't have such good service, that one gentleman from Westchester wouldn't have been able to travel the entire city and infect a few hundred or thousand people in that first week.

Going forward, I hope to see adjustments made as ridership returns.

[Head-end View]

I did think of a couple of other mistakes LIRR made which can still be corrected. They never should have eliminated the timed, cross-platform transfers at Jamaica including the Brooklyn service. Those timed transfers have been a LIRR hallmark for a hundred years and in my opinion was a very efficient way to operate. But again they could still rearrange the schedules in the next big revision to bring back that style of operation. And at least make it easy to transfer between Penn Sta. and Grand Central trains.

The Brooklyn service is another story. Brooklyn passengers got a raw deal and I'm not sure if it could be easily rectified at this point in time.

[workextra]

Any restoration of connections or at least synchronized scheduled 2-3” dwell times in Jamaica for certain trains would make a huge convenience for many passengers.
This is a demand that the commuters need to light a fire under the chairs of the decision makers.
Even if these “concessions” are not “held” especially westbound it would make a significant impact on helping the commute.

However, with the redesign of Jamaica there will be many more issue coming down the line.
Additionally, the long term east river tunnel outages will
Demand services diverted to GCT, Brooklyn, LIC,
Or even terminated at Jamaica.
Those decisions beat made by the proper authorities.

[cle]

These times transfer things are baby-ing people. The idea is that frequency should be high enough to mitigate waiting - and that demand is spread (do you want Brooklyn? Penn? GCT? You'll be on a train to 1/3) - so people change, or boards the train that goes direct to their place. The third main and ESA have not increased frequency sufficiently so that all lines are say 6tph / even 10 min waits minimum (Brooklyn can be clockface at least) - and is still trying to do this all things to all people thing.

That is normal in every other place - other than the BART - and exceptionalism for this fairly infrequent, overly administrated and small, self-contained little railway network is misplaced. More trains, less waits on average. For every moaner, there is a (quiet) winner.

[Jeff Smith]

Ridership ratio between NYP and GCM swinging towards GCM: CBS News

Long Island Rail Road seeing more commuters shift to Grand Central Madison following service changes

RONKONKOMA, NY -- It appears commuting chaos is turning into achievement for the Long Island Rail Road.

The LIRR is starting to see the pendulum swing in its favor, with more commuters utilizing its new Grand Central Madison Terminal.
...
In the beginning, 71% of commuters still went to Penn Station, while the rest went to Grand Central Madison. But recent MTA numbers obtained by CBS New York shows a shift is occurring.

The numbers show 64% are now going to Penn Station, and 36% are going to Grand Central Madison -- which means the LIRR is inching closer to its original goal of 60-40%.
...

[MACTRAXX]

Everyone: Yesterday and today (January 25-26) is the first anniversary of the completion of the ESA Project
and the opening of the new Grand Central (Madison) Terminal for the LIRR...This topic shows the problems
that arose with the new service options being offered - it looks now that the "split" between GCT and Penn
Station looks to be 40-60 percent on average respectfully...Service overall seems now better established
with the systemwide LIRR schedule changes and adjustments that have occurred over this past year...

Looking back to last year the first month was a shuttle operation between Jamaica and Grand Central.
Full service from electrified branches began on February 27, 2023...Will the MTA and LIRR make note of
this first anniversary of GCT service as they should? MACTRAXX

[Jeff Smith]

SNIP:
..Will the MTA and LIRR make note of
this first anniversary of GCT service as they should? MACTRAXX

They did: ABC7NY

MTA celebrates 1-year of LIRR service at Grand Central Madison in New York City

MIDTOWN (WABC) -- Tuesday marked one year since the MTA opened Grand Central Madison, giving Long Island Rail Road riders direct access to Manhattan's east side.
...
Transit officials say, it's the catalyst for a 41% increase in service on the LIRR.
...
But things didn't necessarily start off on the right track. Remember this chaos? The massive overhaul resulting in overcrowded, late trains. At Jamaica Station specifically, there was confusion over new schedules. Kelly says we've come a long way.
...
It took just about a year for the LIRR to meet its initial goal, seeing 60% percent of its customers use Grand Central Madison over 40% still using Penn Station. They saw it happen one day just last week.
...