Despite all the hoopla that the general circulation, and even the business, media has engendered over this proposal, I still contend that no revenue passenger mile of transportation will move over the Florida East Coast FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNT. While the proposed Amtrak operation over FEC lines may or may not move forth, that is independent of this proposal.
As I've noted over at
this topic, there is distinct possibility that the East Coast maritime ports, of which Miami is one of such, may be on a ruinous competitive run. For ready reference, here is The Times article from which I draw this thought:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/21/us/us ... pands.html
Brief passage:
- Moving goods by water is generally cheaper than moving them by land because of the economies of scale of moving so many containers on those big ships, said John Martin, a ports consultant in Lancaster, Pa. So that would suggest canal routes will offer lower-cost shipping to the East Coast and Midwest through the canal.
But, he said, containers loaded on the West Coast, which has built up its container yards and highway and rail infrastructure, can outrun those that travel to the East Coast by water, and that can make the difference when speed and dependability are more important than cost alone. Besides, he added, costs and fees can shift; Panama can be expected to raise rates for canal passage, and “the railroads are not going to sit idly by” and let the water route undercut their businessScudder Smith, a consultant with the engineering consulting firm Parsons Brinkerhoff, said that a water passage, “all things being equal, will cause cost reductions — but all things are not equal,” he added, and so “I’m not at all confident in any numbers.”
That could be why J. Christopher Lytle, executive director of the Port of Long Beach, does not sound a bit worried. “There’s just not going to be a huge movement of cargo from the West Coast to the East Coast,” he said.
His port, and its counterpart in Los Angeles, are already dealing with some of the biggest vessels on the water, capable of carrying the equivalent of 13,000 container units — vessels too big to pass through the new Panama Canal locks....
The unfortunate outcome could be they are all getting ready to throw a post-PANAMAX party - and nobody came.
It appears that the Florida Coast is "not making it". While it has reasonable earnings from running a railroad (Net Railway Operating Income), their debt service costs owing to their high debt to equity capitalization exceeds their operating income. As I've previously noted, no interchange (NS CSX; what do they need FEC for? They serve every other port from Boston to New Orleans) is interested, which means that if there is to be expectation that the substantial investment of public funds made in the South Florida ports is to "pay", reliable rail transportation is essential.
The State is the buyer of immediate source.
So how does this passenger service initiative play into the picture? It simply generates public visibility so that when the private equity concern that owns FEC approaches the State to buy the road, all this public excitement about passenger trains will translate to voters saying "buy it" (or we'll find someone else to vote for). But since the political climate in Florida, with its ever increasing conservative tilt, will have nothing to do with publicly funded passenger trains beyond the existing Tri Rail and the "in the works" Sun Rail, this passenger service proposal simply represents a "faux".
