Brightline (All Aboard Florida) Orlando - Miami FL FEC fka Virgin Rail

chrsjrcj wrote:One train a day is significantly different from the hourly service originally proposed. Wouldn't make much sense to maintain track at 125 mph. Since this is a DOT official, maybe she's talking about Amtrak on the FEC?

At 125mph, one trainset could do 2 round trips per day. That's what doesn't add up. 1 trainset @ 60mph = 1 viable round trip per day, or 2 trainsets = 3 round trips. 1 trainset @ 110/125 = 2 viable round trips per day (and nearly 6 if you had 2 trainsets)

From my many years of just creeping and finally becoming a full time participant here on RR.net, I've certainly seen a lot of these types of proposals come and go. One thing however has held true throughout every proposal.
"If a privately funded High-Speed Rail project seems to good to be true,...it is."

And now, with the smoke from this smokescreen clearing, maybe Amtrak can get something done on the FEC.

Official website:

Schedule: All Aboard Florida will offer frequent, regularly scheduled passenger service throughout the day.

http://www.allaboardflorida.com/fact-sheet

Albany Rider wrote:So FEC runs a passenger train for a few months and then drops it as "unprofitable." They end up with a money making freight line.

Not surprised by the scam considering the investment company that owns FEC. Remember they just picked up a billion dollars plus by flipping Rail American and are working on asset stripping Canadian Pacific.

Tony

Somewhat quick admin interlude: Is there a topic on that in CP? I'd be interested to follow that one; I'm not in CP all that often (almost never). With the recent news on G&W, RA, FEC, etc., I'd like to see something on that. My knowledge is next to none therof.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in one sentence in a news article as the basis for a conspiracy theory. Putting all this effort into one train a day in order to discontinue it? That awfully obvious. I doubt that even Florida transportation officials would fall for that. Perhaps it was poor writing or a misunderstood statement from the source.

^^Agreed.

Excited about some positive news though!

More good news: FEC has hired Skidmore, Owings and Merrill to construct the line's 4 train stations and the related transit-oriented developments.

As FEC has also hired California's former rail director (I think), that's also a good step. Looks like FEC is serious, even if the passenger component is just part of what it wants.

I still fail to see how spending $1B on passenger rail EVER got past internal approvals, deal committees, approvals of lenders, etc., but who knows. There must be more to the story.

Nothing here on it being approved? Great news! Hourly service!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/ ... MS20120808

H Street Landlord wrote:Nothing here on it being approved? Great news! Hourly service!
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/ ... MS20120808

10 trainsets at 400 seats each...that's real service they are proposing. So how does one source say 1 daily, and another say hourly...and (as of this post) I can't find a press release from All Alboard Florida ?

Here's a more expansive report that was in this morning's Miami Herald. The real estate angle is played up more. It's not mentioned, but the northern downtown area is ripe for a boom given that Genting is planning on building a huge resort casino on the site of the current Herald building. Also note that the idiot who drew the map accompanying the article included Metrorail (and even the Metromover!) tracks, but didn't put in the FEC tracks.

Passenger trains to run from Miami to Orlando

Passenger rail service between Miami and Orlando will begin in 2014, FEC officials announced Thursday.

BY ANDRES VIGLUCCI
[email protected]



It’s full-speed ahead on a privately financed, $1 billion plan that will launch fast, hourly passenger rail service between downtown Miami and Orlando by 2014, Florida East Coast Industries officials said.

The All Aboard Florida project promises not just to revolutionize travel between the two cities — there will also be intermediate stops in downtown Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach — but to transform a long-vacant piece of downtown Miami.

...
Eventually, FECI said, the service could be extended west to Tampa and north to Jacksonville.

Cumber said the project would generate 6,000 temporary jobs and 1,000 permanent positions.

...

source: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/09/v-fullstory/2943014/trains-to-run-from-miami-to-orlando.html

Moderator's Note: Edited to include only a fair-use quote, 8/11/2012

While I will believe that this is coming when they break ground on stations and buy passenger cars (I will not believe it when they start fixing tracks) there are multiple vertically integrated revenue opportunities beyond passenger rail in this proposal, one being improved freight service and the other being real estate at stations/air rights/etc.

If they can cross-subsidize the early years of passenger rail not paying its way with gorgeous stations that generate most of their revenue as shopping malls (WAS Union Station, anyone?) then the performance of the passenger service might not be critical to the viability of the business plan.

In a way, the NCRR works similarly. The state owns the railroad. It leases it to NS. NS pays an annual lease of $20m or so, I believe. A considerable portion of the NS lease proceeds is re-invested in the line to speed passenger trains. The Piedmonts and Carolinian do not break even above the rail, but are quite close so that state subsidy is modest.

If FEC pulls this off, then in more populous states with strong in-state travel markets (like NC and FL) this type of thing could be a reasonable business model for others to emulate in places like Illinois, Washington, etc.

Construction to start in 2013?

http://news.opodo.co.uk/NewsDetails/201 ... nd_Orlando

Florida East Coast Industries is set to start construction on the All Aboard Florida project in 2013, with the aim of beginning operations by the end of 2014.

The company announced its intention to launch the $1bn (£637m) development after concluding that it would be financially viable without grants or subsidies from either local or federal government.

Here is a link to an article in today's Sun-Sentinel. I certainally appears to me here in Fort Lauderdale that the Florida East Coast is very serious about this mission. They have the land and the money and I think there is a good chance here that something positive will happen but I have my doubts about 2014. Let's stay tuned anyway and i will try to keep everybody who reads this informed as I hear things.

http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2012-0 ... enger-rail

Noel Weaver

Noel Weaver wrote:They have the land and the money and I think there is a good chance here that something positive will happen but I have my doubts about 2014.

The funny thing is, if they are serious, it will likely happen very fast--the project costs too much to do slowly. While we can say that freight and commercial real estate developments will contribute to the payback, the freight payback is small enough (and the commercial tenants will be skeptical enough) that until the passenger trains are in revenue service the project looks like a whole lot of debt and not enough revenue.

So it is kind of like freight double-stacking, because being 100% done means you've spent 100% of the cost and get 100% of the upside, but being 90% done means you've spent 90% of the cost but are getting only 10% - 20% of the upside--the returns on being done are 5x the returns on being partly done.

So once you've decided to do it, you have to be prepared to do it fast and all at once.