Brightline (All Aboard Florida) Orlando - Miami FL FEC fka Virgin Rail

^excellent point! Yes, competition is good, and leads to efficiencies. Imagine if Amtrak went no farther than Jax or Orlando, and passengers transferred to the FEC. That does leave out the intermediate destinations, though.

Amtrak carries a fair number of passengers out of Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and the other stations south of Orlando and I don't think you will see them just throw that business to the wind. Amtrak also has a maintenance facility in Hialeah which is brand new and it would not make any sense for them to cut back to Orlando. I think you might very well see some fairly major changes in Amtrak operations in Florida but I do not think they will pull out of anything here.
Noel Weaver

Idon't see how having FEC trains running precludes Amtrak using the FEC as well . The meteor could split at Jackonsville .
Or a connecting track is made at Orlando , and it changes to the FEC to Miami From there .
Competition is good ,but cooperation is better .

David Benton wrote:Idon't see how having FEC trains running precludes Amtrak using the FEC as well . The meteor could split at Jackonsville .
Or a connecting track is made at Orlando , and it changes to the FEC to Miami From there .
Competition is good ,but cooperation is better .

Well, if there is cooperation, Amtrak better be willing to have some schedule discipline, as FEC is aiming to run something more than the traditional one train a day in each direction.

chrsjrcj wrote:Looks like they have someone with an idea on equipment:

http://ccrail.com/wp-content/uploads/20 ... l.com_.pdf

http://ccrail.com/

Is it a bad sign that the ccrail.com domain is now apparently in the hands of a squatter?

markhb wrote:

chrsjrcj wrote:Looks like they have someone with an idea on equipment:
http://ccrail.com/wp-content/uploads/20 ... l.com_.pdf
http://ccrail.com/

Is it a bad sign that the ccrail.com domain is now apparently in the hands of a squatter?

Actually the domain is still registered to them (Scott Braverman is an officer and is the registrant as seen here: http://whois.domaintools.com/ccrail.com ) They renewed the domain through Sept 2013.
So it looks like their hosting expired, not their domain and that GoDaddy (as their domain registrar) is generating a squatter-like page on-the-fly because the hosting isn't working.

Even if I remain quite skeptical that a passenger train operated for FEC's own account will ever roll on their rails (and a 50-50 that either an Amtrak or Tri-Rail train will roll over same) , in addition to the material earlier submitted by JasW regarding environmental statements, the Miami Herald has editorialized in favor of the project:

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/13/3 ... offer.html

Brief passage:

• Taken together with the Tri-Rail commuter rail service between Palm Beach to a metro stop near Hialeah, and the potential for sharing tracks with FEC to add more stops to Tri-Rail, South Florida is heading in the right direction.

A few clarifications are in order -

1. Someone mentioned that Fortress may have bad intentions given their current activities at CP Rail - CP is owned by Pershing Square, not Fortress, and Pershing Square just hired EHH. EHH, despite what you think of him, has never been known to sell properties. He did, however, buy quite a few while head of CN.

2. Given the $10m shortage between 2010 railroad revenues and debt service costs, it's worrisome but not surprising. Often mergers and buyouts are done with expensive debt. That means little because when you have a profitable core, you can refinance. You can also sell the profitable core asset and pay off the debt. Both are SOP in the world of high finance, and the debt is Fortress's problem, not FEC. Also, 2010 wasn't exactly a banner year for US business. I'd be interested to see their numbers in 2007.

That said, this passenger train might not be a bad idea. We know that certain passenger trains in densely populated areas return an above-rail profit, also known as an operating profit. Perhaps FEC has a case where they feel they can not only make an above-rail profit, but also finance equipment. After that, any money you make goes back into the till, as the freights are more than paying for the ROW. This business case perhaps involves food cart service rather than a traditional foodservice car, as well as equipment procured at far less cost due to the lack of procurement regulations in the private procurement process.

It may even involve a railcar constructor partnership in the operation, similar to BN-Oakway SD60's. In the Oakway case, BN bought horsepower hours only, Oakway maintained the units, and it created a scenario where Oakway/EMD was incentivized to produce high quality units with low MTBF (ergo higher horsepower hour payments to Oakway).

I have absolutely no factual basis for my speculation in the last two paragraphs, but FEC obviously couldn't make this initiative fly with the 1952 playbook used in most North American passenger railroading, and there's no way they're going to attempt to foist this railroad on the gov't of Florida - the shareholders at Fortress would revolt and top management would be drug through the streets.

This business case perhaps involves food cart service rather than a traditional foodservice car, as well as equipment procured at far less cost due to the lack of procurement regulations in the private procurement process.

Agree. Food service is a money loser, as most here know- either have trolley service, or at most, a snack bar counter w/one attendant in a portion of a car (say taking up 1/4 to 1/3 of car length), with the majority remainder of the space devoted to revenue earning seats.

Procurement- less cost as the best rolling stock at the best price can be purchased, regardless of local content or labor participation.

Mr. Dunville, I review your thoughts immediately set forth with great respect; from such it appears you hold that this private sector passenger service initiative is sincere.

Ignoring sideshows regarding the delivery of on-board Food & Beverage sales, your point that the capital cost by whatever unit of measure (seat mile passenger mile whatever) will be lower in the private sector than would a like publicly funded project is indeed well taken, but lest we not forget we are talking about building forty miles, admittedly hardly over "challenging" terrain, of railroad from scratch.

While I guess in movie scripts regarding divorces, "Kramer v. Kramer", "War Of The Roses" whatever, there are lines to the effect of "She gets the house, I get the mortgage", that debt of some $700M is going to follow the FEC wherever it goes. I think it is going to the State as there is no party out there with a greater stake, with its investment measured with B's to ready South Florida ports for play in a post-PANAMAX shipping world, in ensuring it remains a viable freight transportation link. The passenger train initiative is a means of connecting with "John Q" when his conservative state government proposes to buy the FEC at a price not less than the (my guess) $700M of debt.

Jeff Smith wrote: Imagine if Amtrak went no farther than Jax or Orlando, and passengers transferred to the FEC.

As of the latest from FECI (not FECR) there are no common stations 'twixt NRPC and All Aboard Florida. FECI has made it abundantly clear that this is a intrastate project with no connections to the national network.

Even though I remain highly skeptical of this proposal and hold there are ulterior motives, such as a sale of the FEC to the State in order to protect their interests in the substantial investment made at the Port of Miami, TRAINS columnist Fred Frailey appears to hold that there is some merit to this proposal. His latest op-ed is available to TRAINS subscribers at the link below:

http://cs.trains.com/trn/b/fred-frailey ... racle.aspx

Brief passage:

• The EIS reveals that the startup date will be sometime in 2015 rather than in 2014, as had been originally announced. This shouldn’t surprise you, given the enormity of the work that lies ahead: Just the Miami-West Palm segment will involve double tracking 49.2 miles of railroad (some 16 miles is already two-track), rebuilding three bridges to accommodate a second track, rehabbing four sidings, upgrading 134 of the 183 highway and pedestrian crossings (yes, that’s almost three per mile), building three substantial stations (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach), and converting the present intermodal terminal in Fort Lauderdale into a maintenance base. Seven bridges would continue to be single track, with Number 24 turnouts at each end to connect to the double tracks; such turnouts at other locations have supported speeds of 60 mph or more.
  
  The dozen or more passenger trains running in each direction would be powered by two locomotives and pull seven cars, although station platforms will permit nine-car trains if needed. Both coach and business-class seating will be offered. Speed limits on this segment will be held to 79 mph, probably in light of those scores of roads and the dense urban development of this part of the route. All Aboard Florida, the FECI subsidiary established to run this new service, has said earlier that it plans on 90-mph operation between West Palm Beach and Cocoa, and hopes to operate at up to 120 mph between Cocoa and Orlando International Airport on new track it will construct

As per FECI the final link in the timeline is lead time for constructing new passenger equipment; locomotives and rollingstock. The announcement of the winning bid should be this month.

How sincere or serious the passenger proposal is, I don't know. I'm in the wrong part of the country and way out of my depth.

What I do see is that no railroad has sold itself to the gov't for truly reasonable consideration. Most have either been asset sales or transfer of assets during bankruptcy. The last few years have seen the following big purchases by gov't entities:

-Michigan's purchase of NS(MC) for Amtrak
-Maine's purchase of BAR from MMA
-Amtrak's lease of ALB-SCY from CSX

In no case was there anything more than an asset sale. In the older cases of PC (NYC & NH) to MTA, MILW and RI to RTA, PC(NEC and MC) to Amtrak, and CSS to NICTD , it was an asset transfer as part of a bankruptcy settlement. Knowing that the state could get FEC on the cheap during a reorganization, why would Florida pay top dollar and assume debt now? And once you get to reorg and jettison the debt, I would expect some acquisition-minded Class I to step in.

Tadman wrote:How sincere or serious the passenger proposal is, I don't know. I'm in the wrong part of the country and way out of my depth.

What I do see is that no railroad has sold itself to the gov't for truly reasonable consideration. Most have either been asset sales or transfer of assets during bankruptcy. The last few years have seen the following big purchases by gov't entities:

-Michigan's purchase of NS(MC) for Amtrak
-Maine's purchase of BAR from MMA
-Amtrak's lease of ALB-SCY from CSX

In no case was there anything more than an asset sale. In the older cases of PC (NYC & NH) to MTA, MILW and RI to RTA, PC(NEC and MC) to Amtrak, and CSS to NICTD , it was an asset transfer as part of a bankruptcy settlement. Knowing that the state could get FEC on the cheap during a reorganization, why would Florida pay top dollar and assume debt now? And once you get to reorg and jettison the debt, I would expect some acquisition-minded Class I to step in.

I note with respect Mr. Dunville's immediate thoughts; I'm sure when we next have one of our periodic meet-ups at our favorite Loop restaurant - Miller's Pub - it will make for stimulating discussion.

I'm certain that if the $600M of debt is to follow the FEC (and why would it not?), its discounted cash flow, i.e. the present value of the cash the enterprise will generate into perpetuity, would be negative. However, the State, through one public agency or another has made investment "with a B" (likely some Federal assistance as well, but I defer to others regarding the nature and scope of such.) in the Port of Miami, and lesser investment in other South Florida ports. While, as I've noted throughout our discussions of this proposal, the Port of Miami is where the Love Tubs tie up (and their passengers fly to and from them), they are preparing for the expected post-PANAMAX East Coast shipping boom.

A viable and independent FEC, being the carrier with sole access to the Port of Miami, is part of the business plan. The best analogy presently existing is Conrail Shared Assets, or a road that enables CSX, NS, plus SOO (CP) and GTC (CN) where either previously served or has been granted trackage rights, to access traffic without prejudice in the Northeast as well as Detroit. But unlike CRSA, based upon the recent TRAINS article where it is described as a Joint Facility in which the costs are allocated amongst the users, this "shared asset' FEC would have the advantage of enjoying a 350 mile line haul AND on a line haul, the originating road always gets a more favorable chunk of the division. With a trade imbalance favoring imports, that will work to FEC's advantage.

The last thing that the Port of Miami's sponsors should want is for the FEC to be acquired (fire sale or king's ransom matters not) by either NS or CSX. That would hardly enhance their interests. The shippers would now be at the mercy of monopoly ratemaking; and they would simply consign their shipments to another East Coast port where both NS and CSX serve (that means any other).

Finally, allow me to apologize to those who have gathered here to discuss the minutia of paint schemes and on-board Food & Beverage. I'm simply pointing out why I hold that this initiative is a sham and is part of the bigger picture to engender public interest in the sale of the FEC to the State. Flim-flammery and passenger trains are nothing new: Robert R. Young and Pat McGinnis were great practitioners of the art in the "postwar" (you know youngsters; that war your Grandfathers fought) world.