Brightline (All Aboard Florida) Orlando - Miami FL FEC fka Virgin Rail

Gilbert B Norman wrote:ABSOLUTELY It's a Class Act. I think it even exceeds Acela.

You're very welcome.

If BL wanted to adapt its strategy and serve Central Florida and Tampa via CSX Auburndale division is there a place where a connection exists or could be made between the FEC and CSX that would be north of BL Fort Lauderdale station?

BrightLine will NEVER reach Tampa from Orlando via CSX and Auburndale. Period, full-stop, not happening. About 12 years ago, FDOT attempted to negotiate with CSX to secure ROW so FDOT could double-track CSX and get Amtrak to run more-frequent passenger trains between Miami, Orlando, and Tampa (I might be wrong about the year, but it was basically at a point after the HSR line was killed, but before FDOT gave up hope on trying to make improved passenger rail of SOME kind happen anyway). CSX basically told them, "no, never, forget about it". More specifically, CSX told them it would settle for nothing less than "unfettered" future use of its corridor, and the best it would commit to was an agreement to lease space for aerial track and columns (paid for entirely by FDOT, with CSX reserving the right to evict FDOT and take back the ROW at any time). This was more or less the point when FDOT officially decided that the CSX corridor through Lakeland was not, and would never, be viable as route for passenger rail traffic.

On the bright side, there IS a good route alternative. When FDOT did a round of widening and reconstruction on I-4 between Tampa and Celebration sometime in the late 90s/early-2000s, it explicitly made a point of preserving a corridor suitable for a pair of HSR passenger trains down the middle. AFAIK, that corridor is still basically intact. I'm also pretty sure that FDOT already owns most (if not all) the ROW necessary to get the trains the last few blocks into Ybor and build a station.

Here's what I see in BrightLine's (possibly distant) future:

1. Miami-Orlando (obviously)

2. Miami-Jacksonville (and Jacksonville-Orlando). IMHO, this is practically guaranteed to happen someday.

3. Orlando-Tampa, along the route originally planned for Tampa-Orlando HSR (land paid for by FDOT, track built by FEC)

Beyond that, the following as logical extensions, but I think they'd ONLY happen if FDOT literally built & maintained the tracks at its own expense & Brightline's only role was to run trains as a guest. I think they'd generate a solid operating profit for Brightline, but I'm pretty sure they'd require too much capital and risk for Brightline to ever pursue them on their own:

4. Tampa-St. Petersburg

5. St. Petersburg-Sarasota Airport

6. Sarasota-Naples (along I-75).

7. Once trains are running to Naples and doing well (big "if", but #7 is moot otherwise), I can see FDOT making a push to "close the loop" and extend the tracks across the Everglades and into Miami (probably following US-27 south and southeast to Hialeah, then east and south along FEC's 79th street and US-1 corridors into downtown Miami. Besides providing a shorter route to SW Florida from SE Florida, it would have political value as a potential hurricane evacuation route AND as an alternate emergency route to Tampa & Orlando if some disaster rendered the Phase 2 WPB-Orlando tracks unusable for some reason.

#4 would require an expensive new bridge, causeway, or tunnel across Tampa Bay. I don't think it could financially stand on its own merit (Ybor is a bit of a drive from downtown St. Pete, but I question whether a station in St. Pete would itself generate enough new riders above and beyond those willing to drive to Ybor to be cost-effective.

HOWEVER... if you use #4 as the steppingstone to #5, it makes a lot more sense. From downtown St. Pete, Sarasota-Bradenton is almost a straight shot via the Skyway Bridge, I-275, and existing rail corridor, and adds a combined metro area (with major commuter-rail potential into both St. Pete and Tampa) approximately the size of Jacksonville.

Insofar as the Sunshine Skyway Bridge goes... the current Sunshine Skyway Bridge's cable-stayed span has a single row of support towers with cables anchored to the center of the bridge deck, configured as 2+2 lanes. To handle both increased traffic and accommodate Brightline (one way or another, FDOT's going to have to widen the Skyway Bridge eventually since it's already borderline-inadequate for the traffic it carries daily), I'd add a second pair of support towers and cables (aesthetically, more or less identical to the existing ones) parallel to the existing bridge, then extend the original bridge's road deck over to the new structure so it ends up in a 2+10+2 lane configuration. The widened bridge would look similar to what's there now, but would look as if it were originally built with two identical sets of cables flanking the main travel lanes instead of one running down the center. The 2-lane deck currently used by one side of 275 would become a fishing pier and bike route. The 2-lane deck on the "new" side of the bridge would be for Brightline.

Would people bitch about FDOT spending the money to build the later extensions for Brightline to use? Certainly. But it's much, much harder to rally public opposition to something that voters actually WANT. At some point, if Brightline trains were running between Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville, people in SW Florida would start demanding their OWN piece of the action. And the fact is, once Miami-Orlando-Tampa is in place (especially if Jacksonville is included too), everything from St. Petersburg onward is just a logical extension that FDOT has had on the back burner in its "vision" plan for years, anyway.

^ How does a past failure to do a FDOT-CSX deal bind the parties today? Wouldn't the fact that the Auburndale Sub is on CSX's divestment list be a clear indication that CSX would reopen the issue on updated terms?

Gilbert B Norman wrote:Aboard United 330 (on the ground) MIA

ABSOLUTELY It's a Class Act. I think it even exceeds Acela.

As I noted, "something gonna happen" at Delray Beach, don't want it to, but it's a recipe for trouble.

As for Miami Central, which thanks to Metrorail, I was looking at much longer than expected, it's not gonna be ready anytime soon (gotta go ramp is pulled)

I'm riding the Acela NYP-BOS this weekend and next weekend I will be riding Brightline FLL-PBI and back. I'll be able to first hand and freshly in my mind judge the two.

Auburndale might be on their divestment list, but Lakeland isn't. If you can't use CSX through Lakeland to get to Tampa, there's no point bothering with CSX through Auburndale, esp. since the I-4 corridor has ~50 feet set aside for HSR that's now sitting vacant & unused.

Plus, the I-4 corridor has better geometry that could handle 180+mph trains someday. CSX could never do better than 110mph. With all those factors, there's no REASON to bother with CSX anymore. They had their chance to sell & blew it. FDOT doesn't *need* CSX anymore, and should take advantage of future opportunities to really rub it in & smack CSX around a bit.

Now that I'm "back in the barn" and no longer having a "Lady in Blue" giving me a "no-no stare" for being on my phone, I have to say the joyride was worth every penny of the $22.50 I spent on it. I have not seen this article posted here yet:

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/254 ... vement-tab" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Fair Use:

Brightline, the high-speed passenger train now running between Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, could have to spend about $349 million on safety improvements.

That’s after lawmakers and others, upset over the railway’s dangers, leveraged recent train-related deaths to push for more safety measures.

Republicans Sen. Debbie Mayfield of Melbourne and Rep. Erin Grall of Vero Beach held a press conference Tuesday to express sympathy for those who died and to further stress the need for Brightline to comply with federal train regulations at the expense of the company—and not taxpayers.

The train has been involved in four fatal accidents in which pedestrians or bicyclists were killed. Three accidents occurred during Brightline’s promotional runs, one of which was ruled a suicide.

The fourth, involving a pedestrian who attempted to cross the tracks, occurred last Wednesday in Boynton Beach.

Incidentally, the "loyal opposition" was at it last night:

http://www.saveourfl.com/images/uploads ... yric-2.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's not just Brightline being plagued by rail deaths:

Jan. 30 - Two dozen people were killed on MBTA commuter rail tracks last year, doubling the death toll from 2016, in a worrisome trend that's sending ripples through the system and left officials trying to craft a plan to answer it. Dan Grabauskas, the T's executive director of rail, said yesterday that T and Keolis officials are at least a month to two months away from presenting the agency's board with details of a new initiative aimed at stemming the spike.

This initiative will be federally preempted. The state legislature cannot impose a burden upon the railroad that is otherwise the responsibility of the municipalities.

Mr. Trainguy, the issue is that the "T" provides needed transportation through a region to facilitate it's commerce.

AAF is presently providing Disneyland joyrides.

I will not be surprised if, after the joyride thrills wear off, they shut down until Miami Central is opened, which as I've noted "ain't a gonna be tomorrow". I highly doubt if even a MIA-WPB "Super Shuttle" model will be sustainable.

I remain doubtful if it will ever be built Northward to Orlando, as I doubt if their business plan factored having to float "junk bonds" to build it out. That they apparently cannot float "investment grade" bonds will only raise the cost of the project without generating any additional revenue.

My advice; "get on down" and get your joyrides in.

Gilbert B Norman wrote:Mr. Trainguy, the issue is that the "T" provides needed transportation through a region to facilitate it's commerce.

AAF is presently providing Disneyland joyrides.

I don't believe it is legally classified as a "joy ride"

Of course, Mr. Trainguy, AAF is not classified as a joyride.

But save the party of two I observed with luggage, I cannot characterize anyone else noted as other than joyride.

Is this joyride phase unnecessary, of course not. They are building favorable public interest (I sincerely believe that) by running trains on the planned frequency and at giveaway fares, and that cannot hurt when they open MIA-WPB and charge, say, $35 for a one way Coach ticket.

"Youv'e tried us out for fun; now how about using us to fulfil your travel needs."

Mr Norman, you chose to test service by joyriding on a Sunday and declare that you saw only joyriders.

That's like walking around Vail in summer and observing "I saw people walking around, but nobody was skiing. Once the novelty of walking around a mountain village wears off, I have strong doubts about its viability as a ski resort"

At least 3 things make your observations premature and/or invalid

- The real test comes at the 10 weekday rush hours, when BL's value as a tool to beat road congestion will be at its greatest.

- The real demand will probably start or end at commercial and residential buildings that have not been constructed or occupied. Ridership on most new transit takes 3 years to mature (eg Amtrak Virginia's cashflow-positive routes to Lynchburg and Norfolk). Fortress must have built early lean years into its plan, with additional allowance for the fact that the biggest closest generators of trip making have yet to be built by Fortress or others. I would posit that they have at least a five-year business plan.

- business transactions in and near Miami government centers are obviously the places that will generate weekday business trips. If you insist on only counting joyless rides, then sample weekday traffic. You can't evaluate these when the offices all along the line closed and the station nearest the biggest business demand is not done.

- Joyrides and leisure trips may end up being a sustainable part of brightlines business model. I would not be surprised at all if grandparents who moved to Miami from places like the northeast or Chicago will revel in an opportunity to take their visiting grandchildren from trainphobic boomtowns like Charlotte or Houston or Atlanta on a disneyfied train trip.

If they pull this off, and it proves to be a viable private sector going concern, then I think it will be in the realm of "improbables" equal to that of November 8, 2016.

For that "I eat my hat".

Two new videos; first I have to wonder if it is an independent production or Dr. Geobbels on AAF's payroll:

https://youtu.be/LYPBuf_3Lo4" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The second, this is "award season"; here's mine for "Best Darwin Award":

https://youtu.be/FwIFic35BQc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Oh well, time for SOTU

The proposed Florida SB only effects passenger trains in Florida that travel faster than 80 mph.

At present there arw none.