CSX Acquisition of Pan Am Railways

[Gilbert B Norman]

So I guess the question is how much more do NS, CP, and especially CN want to spend acquiring a class 2 US RR that claims to be profitable but operates a franchise with limited economic potential and will require much capital investment going forward?

Mr. Barlow, I think you identified "what it's all about".

Timmy just wants his loot to buy an Ambassadorship in a Trump second term (and for all we kmow has hedged his bets with Biden); the investment companies envision a pile of $$$ with which to chase the next "startup", and to them what's left of the road will be a string of new Short Lines serving an on-line industry to an interchange with a Class I such as SOO/CP-M or Chessie/B&A.

PAR must be sold to a Class I that first has the capacity and, second, the will to rebuild to at least FRA Class 3. This acquiring road will need see how PAR can be integrated into their system to generate profitable line hauls from NB and ME - especially with the underused maritime ports up that way (Searsport? guess SOO/CP-M kind of owns that one, but Saint John and Portland "cry out" for decent rail service).

Possibly my "vision" of the BNSF Chicago Sub running by my home, is not realistic, but failing that or something in that league, PAR will simply become an insurance company (PC), a vacuum cleaner company (RI), an asphalt paving company (MILW), or a "startup".

Considering the ready integration into an existing system, and the STB's doctrine of competitive rail, that is why I still clutch my $2 ticket on Topper.

[newpylong]

Unfortunately, I believe NS is about as likely to pull the trigger as the Vermont Rail System is at this point. That is, next to no likelihood.

I have to side with the strongest rumor, that of an investment firm. It is an obvious investment that will not yield a strong return for a number of years. Also one that will require serious capital infusion. It is possible that someone like Fortress would buy it with the aim of turning it around in 5-10 years and selling to a Class I when the landscape is more settled (CP into Northern New England, NS is through PSR throes, etc.) Or they may keep it ala FEC if the returns are good enough.

[F74265A]

Fortress held the FEC for 10 years. The Fortress web site says they purchased it in 2007 for $850M and then sold it to a Mexican rail company in 2017. The reported sales price was $2.1B.

[CN9634]

My last good brain cell is really being strained on this thread.... maybe it'll be the MX Investment group that bought the FEC, and we'll become a Mexican RR.

[F74265A]

To clarify, I was not intending to suggest that Fortress or the Mexican rail company that bought the FEC is or is not in the mix here. Who knows. There are numerous investment firms with capital to spend at present. My point was simply that even Fortress sold the well run and successful FEC property within a decade. Most investment firms in my experience have a 3-10 (or less) year window to sell and realize the return on their investment. If the buyer here is a financial buyer, I would expect them to have a similar investment horizon

[A215]

I've been hearing things about Fink's investment firm. I'm not sure if that's the one but they sounded involved still.

[fromway]

If it goes South of the Border, then we can call it FERROME

[Cosakita18]

I've been hearing things about Fink's investment firm. I'm not sure if that's the one but they sounded involved still.

This would be by far the most disappointing outcome.

"Welcome to PAR 2.0... now with even more status quo"

[MEC407]

If it goes South of the Border, then we can call it FERROME

Well played.

This would be by far the most disappointing outcome.

"Welcome to PAR 2.0... now with even more status quo"

Agreed. Disappointing and depressing.

[markhb]

Is the Larry Fink at BlackRock even related to David Sr. and Jr.?

[BandA]

Wikipedia say: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurence_D._Fink

[Laurence D] Fink was born on November 2, 1952.[8][9] He grew up in a Jewish family[10] in Van Nuys, California, where his mother was an English professor and his father owned a shoe store.[3] He earned a BA in Political Science from UCLA in 1974.[9] Fink is also a member of Kappa Beta Phi.[11] He then received an MBA in Real Estate at the UCLA Anderson Graduate School of Management in 1976.[9][12]

Googling David Fink basically says he was a Penn Central employee then hooked up with Mellon to found Permatreet & GTI. Also a lot of hits on Railroad.net!

[MEC407]

Googling David Fink basically says he was a Penn Central employee then hooked up with Mellon to found Permatreet & GTI.

That was David Fink Sr. The current president of PAR is his son, David Fink Jr. Junior was the executive vice president for many years — same position currently held by Cynthia Scarano.

[gokeefe]

He is most definitely not "status quo". I think he works well within the boundaries set by current ownership. Makes him "look" status quo but the tea leaves seem to say otherwise. I think with a well capitalized owner Mr. Fink would know exactly where to push the chips.

Mr. Norman,

With regards to G&W I think the thought mentioned was they might sell a piece of their property to CN. Specifically the former (or should I say "original") GT from Danville Junction to Quebec. Completely agreed that the STB would not go along with a consolidation. I am in agreement with those that say that if the buyer was on the train it seems funny that CN would have been onboard for any other reason.

I'm curious if the industry professionals think it would be standard practice in a meeting of this type for CN to be present merely to talk about their "paper" interchange at Danville instead of representatives of the SLR.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[Shortline614]

Fink Jr. is known to be very Amtrak-friendly, an already big departure from hia father.

[Gilbert B Norman]

With regards to G&W I think the thought mentioned was they might sell a piece of their property to CN. Specifically the former (or should I say "original") GT from Danville Junction to Quebec.

Mr. O'Keefe, I guess the Surf Board would go along with a sale of the (traditional) Grand Trunk from G&W back to the CN, so if the CN got PAR, there would be single road access from further industrial and maritime development in Maine, to the US Midwest and anywhere in Canada (same for CP; but with CP-M back in their hands, that could be a "wipeout" with Surf Board).

But that seems like a circuitous over hill over dale on an FRA Class 2 road to get to the "real deal". With NS, the physical interchanges are in place, and whatever the state of disrepair is at present, the PAS is a more favorable X-ing of the Berkshires than is the B&A.

Still clutching my ticket, even if most others around here think it should be scrap on the floor.