Amtrak in Transition

[jstolberg]

Lately discussions in other threads seem to bring me back to one common theme. 2014 is going to be a big year for Amtrak. Two major equipment deliveries will be in progress over the course of this coming year. The ACS-64 electric locomotives and the Viewliner II baggage, sleeper, diner and baggage-dorm cars. By the end of this year a large portion of the ACS-64 locomotives will have been delivered and they will have entered service. The Viewliner II deliveries will be underway and potentially will enter service prior to the holiday travel period.

Plus, today begins the regular service of two new trainsets on the Cascades. The new equipment enables additional runs between Eugene and Portland, OR. http://www.statesmanjournal.com/article ... -B-C-route" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Station Aficionado]

Plus, today begins the regular service of two new trainsets on the Cascades. The new equipment enables additional runs between Eugene and Portland, OR. http://www.statesmanjournal.com/article ... -B-C-route" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Mr. Stolberg, there have been several news stories (as well as an ODOT press release) indicating that the introduction of the new Talgos is leading to additional rail service south of Portland. But this is not true. The new timetable makes clear that there is still only 3x/day service south of Portland (the Starlight plus two Cascades). What has changed is the slots that some of the trains run in. For example, there's now an early morning nb departure from Eugene. There are also some changes to the coordinated bus schedules. But the total number of trains running south of Portland has not changed.

[Station Aficionado]

In many ways 2014 will be the last year of the "old Amtrak" that has largely been in place since for several decades. By the end of 2014 the first of the AEM-7 fleet will be retired, HHP-8 locomotives will start being sidelined and Heritage baggage and dining cars will quietly fade away from use. The "new Amtrak" will start to emerge with a modernized electric motive power fleet, new long distance cars, higher speeds outside the Northeast Corridor and major improvements to Amtrak's financials due to significantly higher state contributions. Ridership on some routes will increase substantially especially in the Mid-west as a series of track and service improvements come online.

If present trends continue the increased cash on hand will be utilized to further improve Amtrak's operating picture and to seek further opportunities for revenue enhancement and cost savings. There are a number of possible areas where these excess funds could be spent but among the most likely will be further investments in rolling stock and motive power acquisition and capital projects on the Northeast corridor, an area where Amtrak continues to have long term funding shortages.

Well, yes and no. The Sprinters and the new Viewliners will be nice, but they're hardly as epochal as the transition from GG-1's and E-units to AEM7's and F40s, and the change from steam heat and ice bunkers on heritage cars to HEP on Amfleet and the Superliners. I guess we could call that the transition from "old old Amtrak" to the "new old Amtrak." And those changes notably did not usher in a new golden age for passenger rail. The track improvements will be great (although the history of the Chicago-St. Louis program indicates that improvements there will come in slow drips--Illinois would've been better served to concentrate on bottlenecks such as the stretch between Alton and St. Louis rather a short showpiece segment of 110mph running).

On the money front, I wish you were right, but I rather doubt it. In re the appropriation for FY14, there will not (unless things go very, very wrong) be a continuing resolution. Congress passed an overall budget resolution for the first time in years and funding will come from an appropriations bill (an omnibus, rather than separate bills for each department). Indeed, even now the appropriators (principally Rep. Rodgers from Kentucky and Sen. Mikulski from Maryland) are hammering out the final numbers. What Amtrak gets will not be a repeat from last year. While it would be nice if Congress didn't reward Amtrak for extracting more subsidies from the states by cutting the federal operating grant, I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen. Even with some of the sequester cuts restored, there is still fierce competition for every appropriated dollar.

Yes, there is progress coming soon. But defining when Amtrak went up on the mountain and saw into the Promised Land is likely something we will do in retrospect. And I'm not optimistic that we will recall 2014 as the year when it happened--but I will be most happy to be proved wrong on that point.

[Tadman]

they're hardly as epochal as the transition from GG-1's and E-units to AEM7's and F40s, and the change from steam heat and ice bunkers on heritage cars to HEP on Amfleet and the Superliners ... those changes notably did not usher in a new golden age for passenger rail.

True, but this was a product of two concepts: 1. This transition was designed to bring passenger railroading out of 1934 technology, not revolutionize travel; 2. The ridership wasn't there in 1980 like it is today - this recent equipment buying binge is in response to immense demand unseen in half century. I don't know about Amtrak, but my local commuter carrier is carrying more passengers than it did in 1955.

Illinois would've been better served to concentrate on bottlenecks such as the stretch between Alton and St. Louis rather a short showpiece segment of 110mph running).

Ha, Illinois would never do anything logical or efficient. We spend lots of money on showpiece stuff and ignore the wisely spent dollar...

[ryanch]

Illinois would've been better served to concentrate on bottlenecks such as the stretch between Alton and St. Louis rather a short showpiece segment of 110mph running).

Ha, Illinois would never do anything logical or efficient. We spend lots of money on showpiece stuff and ignore the wisely spent dollar...

No doubt they felt that they'd concentrate on the portion of the system that would do most for Illinoisans (far more ridership north of Spfld.), and wait till Missouri wanted to share some costs before addressing the Alton-St. Louis segment. Seems pretty logical to me.

[Station Aficionado]

Illinois would've been better served to concentrate on bottlenecks such as the stretch between Alton and St. Louis rather a short showpiece segment of 110mph running).

Ha, Illinois would never do anything logical or efficient. We spend lots of money on showpiece stuff and ignore the wisely spent dollar...

No doubt they felt that they'd concentrate on the portion of the system that would do most for Illinoisans (far more ridership north of Spfld.), and wait till Missouri wanted to share some costs before addressing the Alton-St. Louis segment. Seems pretty logical to me.

Well, how about this then--instead of the short stretch of 110, they could have fixed the siding at --where is it, somewhere around Mazonia, IIRC?--so the trains don't have back into the sidings for meets. There are plenty of north-of-Sprinfield bottlenecks that are crying out for attention, and aruably would've resulted in bigger bang for the buck than 110 between Dwight and Pontiac.

[ryanch]

Well, how about this then--instead of the short stretch of 110, they could have fixed the siding at --where is it, somewhere around Mazonia, IIRC?--so the trains don't have back into the sidings for meets. There are plenty of north-of-Sprinfield bottlenecks that are crying out for attention, and arguably would've resulted in bigger bang for the buck than 110 between Dwight and Pontiac.

Oh, you mean the one described in this description of funded IDOT projects?:

>The third component, located between MP 55.0 and MP 57.13, consists of a new siding track adjacent to the north side of the existing single mainline track. (Note: The siding is located in the City of Braidwood, but for purposes of consistency with the EA, will be referred to as the Mazonia Siding.)

Care to try again?

[Station Aficionado]

Well, how about this then--instead of the short stretch of 110, they could have fixed the siding at --where is it, somewhere around Mazonia, IIRC?--so the trains don't have back into the sidings for meets. There are plenty of north-of-Sprinfield bottlenecks that are crying out for attention, and arguably would've resulted in bigger bang for the buck than 110 between Dwight and Pontiac.

Oh, you mean the one referred to here?:

>The third component, located between MP 55.0 and MP 57.13, consists of a new siding track adjacent to the north side of the existing single mainline track. (Note: The siding is located in the City of Braidwood, but for purposes of consistency with the EA, will be referred to as the Mazonia Siding.)

Care to try again?

Has that siding actually been fixed? Excellent news if it has. And did it happen before the Dwight-Pontiac upgrade? But I'll concede I'm no expert on the track conditions north of Springfield, and my suggestion of plenty of other targets for funding lacks empirical support (at least from me).

Now that I think about this some more, though, Illinois has billed this as a Chicago-St. Louis corridor, not Chicago-Springfield, and that's the basis those of us outside Illinois are being asked to pony up (via the feds) the big bucks. So, I'm back to my original point--more than the 5 minutes saved between Dwight and Pontiac likely could've been saved south of Alton for the money that was spent to achieve 15 miles of 110. And saying Illinois was looking after its own first isn't quite as convincing when we recall that Illinois is not paying for all (most even?) of this project. But I'm getting way OT. My apologies to Mr. O'Keefe for hijacking the thread.

[Woody]

Well, how about this then--instead of the short stretch of 110, they could have . . .

--more than the 5 minutes saved between Dwight and Pontiac likely could've
been saved south of Alton for the money that was spent to achieve 15 miles of 110.

What's this hang-up on the 15 miles of 110-mph track
that has been completed? Doesn't everybody understand that
it was rushed thru for promotional purposes, for a photo op
for the larger project and the politicians supporting it?

There's a billion dollars being spent on this corridor, with
the stated aim that 75% of the route will be ready for
110-mph trains. But they are still working on the rest of
the 75% besides the showpiece section. They couldn't do
much anyway until the new NextGen bi-level coaches arrive
(contact has been awarded, and so presume, but have seen
no report, that they are actually being built as of now) and
until the new NextGen diesel locomotives arrive (and while
Siemens got been picked last month, no contract has as yet
been signed).

Thing is, once the billion dollars has been spent, and an hour
taken out of the trip time, then we'll need to find another
billion and more to finish the work on the three sections
Chicago-Joliet, thru Springfield, and Alton-St Louis. But
those sections were not ready for any work to begin back
in 2009 when the Stimulus funds were passed out. Iirc they
only picked the route thru Springfield last year. The route
into Chicago may have been chosen in the past year or two
but the environmental and other planning stuff isn't finished.
Not sure they have even picked the preferred route from Alton
into St Louis, and when they do, you're looking at a new crossing
of the Mississippi, and that won't be cheap or quick even if
Missouri kicks in.

The Chicago-Kalamazoo-Ann Arbor-Dearborn-Detroit corridor
is similar. Using federal funds, Michigan DOT bought the tracks
Kalamazoo-Dearborn, and will use $300 million more from the
feds to upgrade it. When that's done maybe 75% of the route
will handle 110-mph trains.

But that other 25%, oh baby. Going round South of the Lake and
into Union Station, that depends on many more hundreds of millions,
including even a revamping of the station(s) handling the many
commuter trains, one or more CREATE projects, likely a new
bridge to get to Indiana, and then a way to get thru, around, past
one of the busiest and most congested stretches of freight line in
the country. (At least they're working on the Englewood Flyover.)

The fact that the work underway now (even with the 15-mile showpiece
completed earlier) is gonna take more time doesn't mean these steps
were not worth taking. I'm trusting the FRA and the states of Illinois
and Michigan picked the low-hanging fruit first.

Cutting an hour out of the timetables St Louis-Chicago and Dearborn-
Chicago will bring huge increases in the number of passengers, and
probably reduce the operating losses substantially. But it will take
a long time before these routes see another hourtaken out
of their timetables. Meanwhile, forget about the 15 mile demo section,
it's a tiny part of the bigger picture.

[gokeefe]

For the record, when you refer to 2014, are you talking the calendar year or the fiscal year? I ask because I don't think the ACS-64s or Viewliner deliveries will impact fiscal 2014 in a positive manner.

In the initial post I was referring to calendar year 2014. The followup was discussing FY '14.

[gokeefe]

Well, yes and no. The Sprinters and the new Viewliners will be nice, but they're hardly as epochal as the transition from GG-1's and E-units to AEM7's and F40s, and the change from steam heat and ice bunkers on heritage cars to HEP on Amfleet and the Superliners.

To be clear I would agree. This is not a "changing of the guard" or some moment of great historic significance marked by transitions between old and new technologies. Or the transition between inherited equipment and a first time new build. All perfectly true.

But I think the likely financial effects on Amtrak of this new equipment are very significant. Ending the use of the Heritage fleet of diners alone is an expense that is counted in the millions of dollars annually (as described in Amtrak's own reports of rebuilds etc.). We also know from some who post here that the Heritage diners are each unique cars with varying configurations requiring a great deal of custom work for each unit.

The ACS-64 units will help ease Amtrak's power crunch for electric motive power and allow Amtrak to immediately retire one or two of their most trouble prone units. The warranty period and initial "maintenance holiday" will almost certainly be a welcome reprieve that should minimize any needs for overtime or other exceptional expenses in the electric motive power department. These are efficiencies that have a quantifiable effect on Amtrak's bottom line and in general would yet again be measured in the millions of dollars.

As far as appropriations go we will have to see. I suspect that Amtrak is not going to see a major reduction in their budget. This is probably going to leave a substantial amount of money on the table for them to work with.

[gokeefe]

The ridership wasn't there in 1980 like it is today - this recent equipment buying binge is in response to immense demand unseen in half century. I don't know about Amtrak, but my local commuter carrier is carrying more passengers than it did in 1955.

Between the commuter agencies and Amtrak the Northeast Corridor almost certainly has a higher utilization rate than it did in the 50s and likely in the 40s and perhaps even the 30s. Extreme ridership figures from WWII would of course be an exception but in general as Tadman indicates ridership is indeed very high right now and this demand is creating the necessity for new equipment.

[ryanch]

Well, how about this then--instead of the short stretch of 110, they could have fixed the siding at --where is it, somewhere around Mazonia, IIRC?--so the trains don't have back into the sidings for meets. There are plenty of north-of-Sprinfield bottlenecks that are crying out for attention, and arguably would've resulted in bigger bang for the buck than 110 between Dwight and Pontiac.

Oh, you mean the one referred to here?:

>The third component, located between MP 55.0 and MP 57.13, consists of a new siding track adjacent to the north side of the existing single mainline track. (Note: The siding is located in the City of Braidwood, but for purposes of consistency with the EA, will be referred to as the Mazonia Siding.)

Care to try again?

Has that siding actually been fixed? Excellent news if it has. And did it happen before the Dwight-Pontiac upgrade? But I'll concede I'm no expert on the track conditions north of Springfield, and my suggestion of plenty of other targets for funding lacks empirical support (at least from me).

Now that I think about this some more, though, Illinois has billed this as a Chicago-St. Louis corridor, not Chicago-Springfield, and that's the basis those of us outside Illinois are being asked to pony up (via the feds) the big bucks. So, I'm back to my original point--more than the 5 minutes saved between Dwight and Pontiac likely could've been saved south of Alton for the money that was spent to achieve 15 miles of 110. And saying Illinois was looking after its own first isn't quite as convincing when we recall that Illinois is not paying for all (most even?) of this project. But I'm getting way OT. My apologies to Mr. O'Keefe for hijacking the thread.

I wouldn't concede much of that. Lots of projects are undertaken because they have some interstate impact, but a huge local impact.

But even if you believe this, you and Tadman need to get your stories straight. He says IDOT is stupid, whereas you say they're incredibly clever in getting away with a win for Illinoisans. LOL.

[Frank]

Illinois would've been better served to concentrate on bottlenecks such as the stretch between Alton and St. Louis rather a short showpiece segment of 110mph running).

Ha, Illinois would never do anything logical or efficient. We spend lots of money on showpiece stuff and ignore the wisely spent dollar...

No doubt they felt that they'd concentrate on the portion of the system that would do most for Illinoisans (far more ridership north of Spfld.), and wait till Missouri wanted to share some costs before addressing the Alton-St. Louis segment. Seems pretty logical to me.

What are the speeds between Alton and St Louis?

[electricron]

What are the speeds between Alton and St Louis?

Every time I've ridden the Texas Eagle, I don't think we ever exceeded 60 mph between Alton and St. Louis, and I don't think we achieved 60 mph most of the way. Alas, I don't keep a speedometer with me on the train to quantify my opinion.