Funding Discussion - Amtrak DC Politics RELATED TO RAIL!

[BM6569]

I heard today that operating losses in the last fiscal year decreased significantly again. Ticket sales covered 94% of operating costs, up from 92% the previous year. If the Trump administration leaves it as is, I wonder if they might be turning a profit in five-ten years.

[Noel Weaver]

I don't expect anything negative at least for a while if at all. Some of it will depend on who ends up in charge at this level in DC. I continue to keep an OPEN MIND.
Noel Weaver

[Greg Moore]

In this regard, I'm not worried about Trump. (I'll leave my other concerns for elsewhere).

BUT, I am worried about Congress. They're already making motions about cutting everything under the sun.
And one rumor is Mica as SecTrans.
That said, I do think one thing Trump will work hard for is infrastructure and this bodes well of Amtrak.

We'll see.

[NH2060]

Repost from "Funding Discussion" thread:

**Some articles about Donald Trump and his attitudes towards passenger rail/mass transit:

http://time.com/4247162/donald-trump-tr ... structure/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://fortune.com/2016/11/12/trump-tra ... riorities/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nati ... story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


It appears that Trump is not only unopposed to mass transit and passenger rail he's into it. He has said before "why does China have 300mph trains and we don't?" among other things, in addition to what he wrote in his book Crippling America.


So it might not be Donald Trump standing in the way of improved passenger rail service, but certain Republicans in the Senate and House who don't agree with him on that. Don't forget Trump is a New Yorker and must know as much as anyone else who's been there long enough how critical railways are in NY and the Northeast. Also if he wants to win re-election in 2020 it wouldn't hurt for him to approve much needed bridge, tunnel, highway, and rail projects in "blue" states such as NY, CT, MA, etc. A surprising number of Democrats actually voted for him in the election this time. If he wants their (and others') vote next time he'll need to step up his game if the DNC nominates a true force-to-be-reckoned-with candidate.

That was one of the first things that jumped to my mind, too. Gateway, for one, probably just jumped to the absolute top of the queue, especially with Chuck Schumer taking up the Senate Minority Leader's job at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. Wouldn't be too surprised to see some Fed $$ going toward the Empire Corridor, either, especially since Trump carried 45 of the 53 counties north of Westchester.

Thankfully in this situation Trump and the incoming House and Senate both are in agreement on other MAJOR issues (Supreme Court nominees, health care, law enforcement, etc.) so they might be willing to "budge" on this one. As for Mica he's all for a truly high speed NEC and -as GBN noted- secured funding for SunRail. His issue with food service losses (which are legitimate) nonwithstanding I don't see his appointment as Transportation Secretary as an automatic nail in the coffin though I too would prefer to see a more pro-rail appointee.


Just as long as they don't try to privatize Amtrak the way the U.K. did with British Rail... Even Margaret Thatcher warned John Major not to do it. Perhaps the Iowa Pacific/Amtrak/Indiana partnership for the Hoosier State could be the business model to look at for certain corridors outside the NEC.**

[AgentSkelly]

I think Trump on some level is aware of the need that Amtrak fills since after all, he did run Trump Shuttle; which was the former Eastern Airlines Boston-NYC-DC express plane service that competes with the NEC, which of course he later could never make money on and sold to the late US Air.

[MACTRAXX]

Everyone:

I will agree with the thought that when Donald Trump becomes President that Amtrak will be safe for now under his watch.

It remains to be seen how a Republican-controlled House and Senate will support and/or fund Amtrak and rail transportation.
Will the Tea Party wing be in control and be a threat to Amtrak's survival and for that matter transport infrastructure funding?
Will the minority Democrats be able to insure that rail gets its share of transportation dollars?

MACTRAXX

[gokeefe]

I have been stewing on this exact question quite a bit since the election. Thank you Mr. Norman for starting such an important topic.

I fully expect the new administration to propose major capital spending programs for the Northeast Corridor in particular focusing on Gateway ("Trump Tunnel"), the new "Moynihan-Trump" Station (if the late Senator's name is even considered for retention). In the Southeast I think we could see a huge infusion of cash for Southeast HSR ("Trump Corridor"). If Mica gets in the way of any of these priorities he will be replaced (if he is even considered at all).

There will probably be some pretty significant discussion regarding allowing Amtrak to "go private" but I don't expect this to succeed when, as usual, the communities on Western transcontinental routes realize that they are probably going to lose everything. As noted by others Amtrak's operational performance has seen extraordinary improvement under the Obama-Biden administration. I expect continued capital investments currently underway to take things even further and potentially put Amtrak in a position to being to be able to contribute to some of their own capital improvements.

Also worth noting, I expect that Brightline/All Aboard Florida will make some kind of significant contribution to additional ridership on the Silver Serivce. How much exactly, "I don't know" but it won't be 0. I'll go out on a limb ... I expect to see a $10 Billion dollar capital appropriation to Amtrak proposed as a floor not a ceiling. Some of this initial funding will be eaten up by the Gateway project. There will probably be more after that. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the initial proposal is double or more than my initial estimate.

[Woody]

. . . I fully expect the new administration to propose major capital spending programs . . .

I'll go out on a limb ... I expect to see a $10 Billion dollar capital appropriation to Amtrak proposed as a floor not a ceiling. Some of this initial funding will be eaten up by the Gateway project. There will probably be more after that. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the proposal is double or more than my initial estimate.

Seems like it will be one extreme or the other. If the hate-the-gummint ideologues get hold of Amtrak we're gonna be in big trouble. If Trump's ego connects with passenger rail, it could be yuuuge.

No tweaking the little stuff. Amtrak will go away or go BIG.

[trainviews]

I saw somewhere (sorry, don't remember where) that Trump is on the record for supporting a number of large rail infrastructure projects - North river tunnels, California HSR, HSR NYC-DC etc.

BUT - it was all under the illusion, that it will be privately built and funded. The only place I see that happening might be Dallas-Houston. All the other projects are simply far too complicated, take too long to complete before it might turn any profit and are too large investments with too large risks.

A prerequisite for doing this experiment will be a push to privatize the NEC though. I have no clue if someone will try to bid, but whether it will be successful or not, I think it will mean a lost decade of much needed renewal and improvements on the corridor.

One scenario could look like: NEC is sold for pennies to "some company", which either in bad faith just milks it for whatever profit the Acelas can turn as long as it can run or in good faith tries to raise the humongous amount of money needed for ever mounting infrastructure renewal needs (we all know the list), but fails to do so before tunnels or bridges start to fail in New York, Baltimore, Susquehanna or somewhere else. Private owner goes belly up, huge lawsuits over track access for any remaining capacity from commuter agencies and mother company runs away with the interrim profit.

So my worry is not that the Trump administration will be rail hostile. It is that they will fail to understand - and fail to have the will to understand - the economics of passenger rail. And that can lead to very, very harmful actions.

As for the rest of the system. Well, the part that is not up to the states might be allowed to rattle on or not, but I see no major federal investment coming up here. Just like any other much needed infrastructure investments which is not big and shiny and can't be made into profit for private companies (potholes, failing bridges, sewers etc, etc) it will be thoroghly neclected.

[Gilbert B Norman]

If Mica gets in the way of any of these priorities he will be replaced (if he is even considered at all).

Mr.O'Keefe, he's gone effective Jan 3.

[Philly Amtrak Fan]

Out of Congress. But rumor is he might be Trump's Secretary of Transportation.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/mobile/o ... -post.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Gilbert B Norman]

I guess it appropriate to discuss the future of Rep. Mica here, for as Mr. Philly notes, and for that matter Mr. O'Keefe inferred, Mr. Mica could easily end up as SecTrans. But to me, it is incongruous that a Member of Congress who unquestionably "brought home the bacon" with transportation projects thought that one transportation agency known as Amtrak, and with a sizable facility within his District (as then drawn), sought to discredit that agency with frivolous issues and grandstanding of them.

If the District was served by "one a day at 3A", then I guess I "could see it". But with (a guess) 300 good paying Amtrak jobs within such, I'm at a loss to know what made Mica tick.

The only scenario I can envision for a successful Trump administration that does not get rated down there with Buchanan and Harding (Lincoln is #1, Obama is #18 of 43) is that Mr. Trump surrounds himself with good people, such as Mitt Romney at State, and then finds the fortitude to listen to them. I leave it to others to decide if Mr. Mica, with his strong record of furthering transportation projects, can accept that intercity passenger has a role, albeit much more important within the Corridors that have a way of being Blue than elsewhere, and properly advise President Trump.

[gokeefe]

There may be some initial "push" to privatize the NEC but I do not believe it will get anywhere. Too many R votes against it as it will be obvious that the Western transcontinental services will be eliminated immediately. Mark my words ... Trump is going to get those tunnels named after him. There is nothing he would like more than to have his name on a major piece of New York infrastructure that is likely to outlive him in lifespan by a factor of 10. I will be surprised if the Navy is able to resist the temptation to name an aircraft carrier after him while he is still in office (!).

[Tadman]

So this begs the question - if he's no longer an elected official, does he still maintain his "passenger trains are the devil" position or was that part of a greater act to keep him elected in a highly conservative base?

With a lot of these long-term politicians, you have to wonder if they truly believe half the crap they say or if they say it to get elected. Especially given the high degree of flip-flopping in Washington on both sides.

[gokeefe]

I think its an ideological position. There's simply no political payoff to it at any point. I won't be surprised if he changes out of necessity.