Why do LD trains not handle intra-NEC traffic?

[ThirdRail7]

I'd like to propose we move on from this topic unless we have some fresh material, be it historic in nature or upcoming plans. Thanks guys.

I second the motion.
Noel Weaver

If everyone that participated in this thread would like to turn their attention to Amtrak.com, I think a search for tickets for travel between NYP-WAS after 7/20 will yield surprising results!

The game is afoot!

[nomis]

I was playing with a potentially bad bucket. NyP-PHL at 11am yielded the Star at $91 bucks, Acelas around it at $99 and Keystone/ Regionals in the $39-$55 range. All across different dates in the next couple of months.

[ThirdRail7]

I was playing with a potentially bad bucket. NyP-PHL at 11am yielded the Star at $91 bucks, Acelas around it at $99 and Keystone/ Regionals in the $39-$55 range. All across different dates in the next couple of months.

They definitely aren't doing it they way I hoped, but they may snag some riders. One thing I tried to do is see if they were opening up the sleepers. I tried different dates and couldn't come up with anything. When I checked the same dates to ALX, sleepers were available. I assume they do not intend to sell them for corridor use. It would be interesting to see if you could upgrade on board though!

[Ken W2KB]

I was playing with a potentially bad bucket. NyP-PHL at 11am yielded the Star at $91 bucks, Acelas around it at $99 and Keystone/ Regionals in the $39-$55 range. All across different dates in the next couple of months.

They definitely aren't doing it they way I hoped, but they may snag some riders. One thing I tried to do is see if they were opening up the sleepers. I tried different dates and couldn't come up with anything. When I checked the same dates to ALX, sleepers were available. I assume they do not intend to sell them for corridor use. It would be interesting to see if you could upgrade on board though!

On several occasions I have used my AGR points to book sleeper travel to Chicago and sometimes beyond, from Newark, NJ to Washington and thence tha Capitol Limited. The sleeper points included business class on the Amfleet equipment on the NE Corridor segment. If booked on a long distance corridor train from NWK to WAS, there being only coach and sleeper, I wonder which would offered.

[gokeefe]

I noticed that it appears they are only open southbound NYP-WAS, not northbound. I think that makes sense as it protects against delays and missed connections.

Even more importantly this to me appears to be an excellent opportunity to improve the cost recovery of the Long Distance trains on the Atlantic Coast Service. Plenty of additional revenues and even some additional incidental food & beverage as well. I also like the fact that this adds additional scheduling options for travel on the NEC.

In effect Amtrak has just "created" a whole slew of new seats that are priced at a middle tier between the Regionals and the Acelas.

For example:

Currently on July 23rd I have the following Coach/Business options (Business/First in Acela) departing NYP for travel to WAS from 6:05AM onwards:

• 181 Northeast Regional $84/$125
• 89 Palmetto $145/$186
• 2107 Acela Express $259/$375

I think its great and I also think that capacity will sell to people who absolutely need a seat and can't get on an Acela. Ironically, 89 departs NYP 10 minutes later and arrives at WAS 10 minutes earlier than 181. I think the other positive here is it makes the Long Distance trains into valuable contributors to the continued fluidity of the NEC by providing extra capacity where needed at a higher tier of service.

Even if this ends up siphoning some passengers off the Acela (instead of from the Northeast Regionals) that only means you're going to end up with higher yields on the Acela due to ticket sales closer to departure times/dates. At the end of the day this means more people riding the Northeast Corridor, using Amtrak and helping them make more money on capacity they are already paying for anyways. Good thinking to whoever helped make this happen. Lets hope that they keep it.

[hi55us]

Good move by amtrak, I also agree with the move only to sell the tickets southbound (although perhaps they could sell them northbound, at a discount and put in a disclaimer that the train is more likely to be late).

The IT department must have had some late nights to program the website to display "sold out" NYP-WAS but space available NYP-RVR/ORL/MIA.

The only downside to riding on a LD train NYP-WAS is no wifi. Amtrak needs to work on this ASAP.

[dowlingm]

Clearly there are limits to how much capacity can be shifted since at least some of those going SB will want to come back?

Facilitating people to change reservations onto NB LD trains on a standby basis would free up last minute seats on other trains, though would be clearly more onerous to administer.

[gokeefe]

Clearly there are limits to how much capacity can be shifted since at least some of those going SB will want to come back?

That thought occurred to me as well but in the end it just means the yields and load factors northbound may be slightly higher. Furthermore due to Amtrak's flexible consist management practices they should be able to ensure capacity is balanced by adding cars to select Northeast Regional trainsets.

I would definitely get a kick out of seeing some kind of overnight turnaround in the finances of these Long Distance trains. Even if they "only" cut their losses in half it would mean millions in new revenue (still assuming no loss to the Regionals ot the Acela).

[afiggatt]

I would definitely get a kick out of seeing some kind of overnight turnaround in the finances of these Long Distance trains. Even if they "only" cut their losses in half it would mean millions in new revenue (still assuming no loss to the Regionals ot the Acela).

I think you are overestimating the revenue impact of this change. For starters, Amtrak will have to carefully limit and control the number of intra-NEC seats they sell to keep seats open for south of the NEC sales.

The LD trains start at high Regional bucket prices NYP-WAS and have Regional trip times. For example, looking out 5+ weeks to August 28, the 2155 Acela, departing NYP 11 AM with a 2;45 trip time is $152. The 91 Silver Star, departing NYP 11:02 PM with a 3:33 trip time is $145. The Star gets into WAS 50 minutes after the Acela. Unless I'm a rail-fan who wants to sit in an Amfleet II car or want to take the train with the checked baggage option, why would I book the Star? Should note that the Crescent is 3:45 NYP to WAS which would make it a very slow Regional.

On making reservations a couple of days ahead. the Regionals will generally be at high bucket prices, so the LD trains will be more competitive. But the LD trains with 3-4 Amfleet II coach cars have far fewer seats than an extended 9 car Regional, so there will not be very many intra-NEC seats available to sell. The obvious purpose of this change is to squeeze out more revenue, but it will be a bump, not a windfall.

There is also the question of whether Amtrak will allocate the revenue from the intra-NEC LD train sales to the LD train or to the NEC? If Amtrak follows the allocation applied to the VA Regionals, the Keystones, Vermonter, the revenue and passenger counts will go into the NEC box.

[Greg Moore]

I was thinking about this. How much revenue really is there.

Let's assume 50 seats on average (I think that's high, but what the heck).
Give a nice round number of $125/seat.

So each train can add $6,250 in revenue.

There's what, 3 (2 Silver Service, Crescent, am I missing one?) from NYP-WAS
That's $18,750/day.

365 days a year gets $6.8M in revenue.

Those are all WAGs, but if we're off by a factor 10 high, that's still $.68M. If we're off by a factor of 3x high, that's still over $2M in revenue for doing very little.

Not too shabby.

[ThirdRail7]

I would definitely get a kick out of seeing some kind of overnight turnaround in the finances of these Long Distance trains. Even if they "only" cut their losses in half it would mean millions in new revenue (still assuming no loss to the Regionals ot the Acela).

I think you are overestimating the revenue impact of this change. For starters, Amtrak will have to carefully limit and control the number of intra-NEC seats they sell to keep seats open for south of the NEC sales.

The LD trains start at high Regional bucket prices NYP-WAS and have Regional trip times. For example, looking out 5+ weeks to August 28, the 2155 Acela, departing NYP 11 AM with a 2;45 trip time is $152. The 91 Silver Star, departing NYP 11:02 PM with a 3:33 trip time is $145. The Star gets into WAS 50 minutes after the Acela. Unless I'm a rail-fan who wants to sit in an Amfleet II car or want to take the train with the checked baggage option, why would I book the Star? Should note that the Crescent is 3:45 NYP to WAS which would make it a very slow Regional.

On making reservations a couple of days ahead. the Regionals will generally be at high bucket prices, so the LD trains will be more competitive. But the LD trains with 3-4 Amfleet II coach cars have far fewer seats than an extended 9 car Regional, so there will not be very many intra-NEC seats available to sell. The obvious purpose of this change is to squeeze out more revenue, but it will be a bump, not a windfall.

There is also the question of whether Amtrak will allocate the revenue from the intra-NEC LD train sales to the LD train or to the NEC? If Amtrak follows the allocation applied to the VA Regionals, the Keystones, Vermonter, the revenue and passenger counts will go into the NEC box.

I'll field this one. The reason you'll book the Star and the Crescent is because the immediate trains around it tend to sell out. Regional train 93 and train 85/87 and Acela trains 2121 and 2163 which run around 19 are packed beyond the gills. After they extended 125 past WAS, it became another packed train. Train 95 was always a monster, so adding 91 with a 3 min different running time over the corridor is competitive with the regionals. As the travel date grows closer, the the price difference will grow in favor of the long distance trains.

You're also leaving out one thing: the wrath of E ticketing. If you miss your train or want to change your reservation, it is no longer a matter of just making a call. If your fare structure no longer exists, you will be responsible for the difference of fare. A consistent bucket on the LD trains (if that is indeed the plan) will add greater flexibility for people that have missed their trains, need to change their plans and the surrounding trains are sold out.

This is an experiment that expires in the fall. I'm sure everyone will watch carefully. If I'm given the choice between riding to WAS in an AM2 versus a super packed AM1 regional set, I'd take it every time as long is the price is comparable. By the time people look to these train, the price will be since it will be geared more towards last minute passengers which minimizes the prospect of losing a NWK-RGH fare in favor of a NWK-WAS fare.

[ThirdRail7]

I was thinking about this. How much revenue really is there.

Let's assume 50 seats on average (I think that's high, but what the heck).
Give a nice round number of $125/seat.

So each train can add $6,250 in revenue.

There's what, 3 (2 Silver Service, Crescent, am I missing one?) from NYP-WAS
That's $18,750/day.

365 days a year gets $6.8M in revenue.

Those are all WAGs, but if we're off by a factor 10 high, that's still $.68M. If we're off by a factor of 3x high, that's still over $2M in revenue for doing very little.

Not too shabby.

During the trial period, 97 is not included. The Palmetto is included which will pat dividends on weekend. Remember, the first regional after 67 on SUN is 131 at 0645. The Palmetto leaves at 0615 and puts you into DC much earlier. During the weekdays, it can take pressure off 181 since it leaves 10 minutes later and actually arrives 10 minutes earlier than 181. If you can divert 30 passengers to 89, that's 30 more people that can ride between intermediate stops not served by the Palmetto (MET-BWI, PJC-WIL, NBK-PHL as examples.)

[gokeefe]

Unless I'm a rail-fan who wants to sit in an Amfleet II car or want to take the train with the checked baggage option, why would I book the Star? Should note that the Crescent is 3:45 NYP to WAS which would make it a very slow Regional.

Setting the potential enthusiast ridership aside I think the addition of checked baggage service is actually rather compelling especially for serious business travelers between NYP and WAS. Too bad the only reverse direction option with checked baggage is 66.

[afiggatt]

I'll field this one. The reason you'll book the Star and the Crescent is because the immediate trains around it tend to sell out. Regional train 93 and train 85/87 and Acela trains 2121 and 2163 which run around 19 are packed beyond the gills. After they extended 125 past WAS, it became another packed train. Train 95 was always a monster, so adding 91 with a 3 min different running time over the corridor is competitive with the regionals. As the travel date grows closer, the the price difference will grow in favor of the long distance trains.

You're also leaving out one thing: the wrath of E ticketing. If you miss your train or want to change your reservation, it is no longer a matter of just making a call. If your fare structure no longer exists, you will be responsible for the difference of fare. A consistent bucket on the LD trains (if that is indeed the plan) will add greater flexibility for people that have missed their trains, need to change their plans and the surrounding trains are sold out.

I'm not saying that people won't take the southbound LD trains NYP-WAS. Some people will and it likely will make enough additional revenue to Amtrak to continue offering the seats to offset the hassle of managing the ticket sales and getting passengers off at what were boarding only stops. My point was let's not get carried away with how much revenue this will generate, whether it ends up allocated to the LD train or to the NEC sales.

If the sales continue pass September 30, when it comes to peak of the snowbirds heading south travel seasons, they may to pull the Star from the open NYP-WAS sales list. Same goes for peak holiday periods. Might have to drop the LD trains for NYP-WAS sales during the jammed Thanksgiving, Christmas, Easter travel periods to keep the seats open.

[gokeefe]

Might have to drop the LD trains for NYP-WAS sales during the jammed Thanksgiving, Christmas, Easter travel periods to keep the seats open.

I'm not so sure about that. I traveled on the Silver Star this past Thanksgiving WAS-RGH (Regional from BOS-WAS). By the time we got to PHL we were across the platform from our train and then got ahead between PHL and WAS. When we got on the train in WAS there was plenty of space (entire coaches) that I'm quite sure was unsold between NYP and WAS.

The return trip was arguably even worse. As ancient sets of commuter equipment jam packed with passengers trundled southbound out of BAL for the first time in decades we passed northbound with three cars almost empty and one of them completely shutdown. I'm quite sure there were equal crush loads headed northbound as well.

The ground truth that I personally observed was substantial quantities of unsold inventory between WAS-NYP on two of Amtrak's busiest days of the year (one of them actually being #1). This is a practice that I think is worth changing especially in the southbound direction where the reliability is going to be very high. Other than potential concerns about cleanliness, which are serious, I can see no other good reason why this inventory shouldn't be available year round. As ThirdRail7 mentions all the facilities and personnel necessary are present in WAS and can be used to fully service the train while the engine change is taking place.