The Rumored End of the MMA?

It's an issue of perspective. I am approaching this from that of a rail carrier where you have to be objective and dispassionate. The MMA EW mainline could be double-tracked with 300-lb rail and it wouldn't have any appreciable effect on volume. The business ain't there. Two facts to consider: 1) Maine's agricultrural/industrial/manufacturing base is in decline, and has been for years, the result of the demise of the paper industry, Maine's geographically-based logistical disadvantage, and Maine's anti-business sentiment, and 2) outside of southwestern part of the state, population has been DECLINING for years. Given those two issues, coupled with the the facts that 3) Maine has no rail-oriented natural resources (coal, iron ore, etc), and 4) the maritime provinces have a viable E-W rail option over the top, Maine's rail network has little opportunity for volume growth.

Maybe it's my opinion alone, but but consolidation of Maine's western gateway routes would better protect the viability of the remaining railroad network and is in the long-term interest of the state.

CN9634 wrote:My thoughts about the Port is that it is a good time to take this opportunity. I dont know if you know but they want to build a second Port in Halifax (Medford I believe is the name) and I haven't checked the progress of the project but I do know that if the goes through then you can kiss Sears port goodbye. The Geographic location in the US is a natural advantage as well as lack of congestion. I know that the demand has existed in the past when they made the Port in Portland (Which does recieve containers) and wanted Guilford to connect to it but they never did.

CN, reread the thread re. Searsport and understand what has been written: there is little opportunity for Searsport to generate midwestern container traffic. 12 hours closer proximity to Europe than NY/NJ and the consultants assertion that Searsport can gain a competitive service advantage with no "congestion" does not necessarily trump steamship line economic, service and logistical characteristics. The only way I could see hope for generation of traffic from Searsport would be steamship line interest and commitment up front --- and if I were a ME taxpayer I would demand it.
IMHO, Searsport would offer limited service to limited midwestern destinations via CP due to a lack of volumes sufficient for frequent sailings/callings...and that will mean slower service vs. NY/NJ and no competitive service advantage. On the cost front, IMHO, any port or ship operational savings via Searsport would be exceeded by increased inland transportation costs. And, lastly, what kind of demand was generated for Guilford via Portland?....more than likely short-haul, low-volume traffic, if not just hopefulness.

CN9634 wrote: Listen obviously this discussion is getting to the "I know more than you" and is nothing more than a rhetoric war. Now listen, I'm a 19 year old College student and I've been following railroads ever since I can remember (Thanks Dad). I'm not trying to be any sort of expert but I'm also trying to prove that there is a future for rail in Maine. We all know things have to change in Maine for there to be a real future for the MMA. All I want to do is say that the pieces are out there to assemble a viable East-West railroad. And the CP line is a true East-West railroad just look at it on the map and from St. John to Montreal is almost a straight horizontal line. I just want to see the railroad succeed and I think they can. If you guys feel otherwise then I suppose you have your reasons but don't you think its good to think positive and try to make progress? Its better to have tried then to have not at all.

I admire your youthful optimism, but be mindful of what others are writing. What has been written is cogent and not "rhetorical" or "one-upmanship". Transportation demand is derived from other activities which can be explained through the sciences of economics and logistics. Railroad decision-making is informed by its high fixed cost structure leveraged by traffic volume and the commodities it can handle for a return aimed to equal or exceed the cost of capital: generally characterized as heavy and/or high volume and/or moving long distances. If Maine's railroads are to be economically viable, sufficient traffic with those characteristics must be generated through economic activity or the network will need to shrink. It's tough stuff, but is common in the rr. industry....just look at midwestern and northeastern railroading in the 70's and the rationalization it took to stabilize the situation. Maine was immume from the blood bath because of its rail-oriented paper production, but one can see that "so goes ME's paper industry, so goes its railroads".

Great stuff here -- looks like we have some great, reasonable resources. So if we are all in agreement that something has to be done in Maine in way of consolidation -- who survives? Which route is the best Western gateway? And please, do not tell me the Mountain division.

CN, I and everyone here would love to see 15 main line trains a day east-west through the state, but the fact is it ain't happening anytime soon. I love how the governor seems (?) to recognize the importance of rail, but passenger service expansion isn't going to pay the bills and create jobs, it's true industry. I think the state of Maine is having an identity crisis, does it wish to be a playground for the rich in the future or does it want to create real jobs? Cut the red tape, cut taxes, do whatever has to be done and let's create some real jobs -- then and only then will you see Class I service in Maine.

Quite honestly, the only way we would see a class one railroad in Maine is if one bought it's way in. And it would have to be part of a large system to make the numbers work. The numbers are what makes it a class one, not the track. Because we do have some nicely maintained track in the western foothills of the state in the form of the SLR.

RailNutNE wrote:Great stuff here -- looks like we have some great, reasonable resources. So if we are all in agreement that something has to be done in Maine in way of consolidation -- who survives? Which route is the best Western gateway? And please, do not tell me the Mountain division.

CN, I and everyone here would love to see 15 main line trains a day east-west through the state, but the fact is it ain't happening anytime soon. I love how the governor seems (?) to recognize the importance of rail, but passenger service expansion isn't going to pay the bills and create jobs, it's true industry. I think the state of Maine is having an identity crisis, does it wish to be a playground for the rich in the future or does it want to create real jobs? Cut the red tape, cut taxes, do whatever has to be done and let's create some real jobs -- then and only then will you see Class I service in Maine.

I like to consider the current amount of traffic in and out of the State of Maine a pretty good amount. Guilford having 6 trains in/out of Maine a day plus the SLR 2 a day and the MMA 2 every three days is great. The NBSR has 2 - 4 in and out of the State and the MMA interchanges a bit into the State via St. Leonard. Technically we already have a lot of trains coming in and out of the State, on a lucky day we could literally have 15 trains if the SLR, MMA, NBSR and Guilford all ran on the same day. But the freight is a different story. The amount of freight passing through Maine is growing. Look at the Keag job up here it has steadly grown. I know this because I live 1000 feet from the tracks and see the train everyday. Cars are coming back to Old Town and the Wallboard from St. John to Ayer is also growing. Sometimes I'll see 15 Centerbeams on the train plus the dozen more CO2 tanks. NMED will run heavily and sometimes they'll run a NMWA as well.

I agree with the identity crisis issue but I do think that parts of the State of Maine got the idea. For example Lewiston and Auburn are selling themselves hard. I've actually seen commercials on TV. They offer tax incentives to companies that build within the Port of Auburn. Also there is a economic development council within the area itself that tries to promote new business. I'd like to say this and more are some of the reasons why this area has thrived. I think the SLR is the closest thing to a Class 1 in Maine and I'm sure many will agree.

Pan Am is now down to two daily roundtrips in and out of the state and you can't double count the NBSR traffic as that comes in at Keag and leaves via the ST or MMA. I also don't think the SLR is running long trains these days, nor is the MMA doing much with the CN at Van Buren. I hate to be so negative, but you'll see more traffic in an hour on CSXT west of Selkirk than runs in and out of Maine all day!

Geeeesh its so hard to have this argument when we are in such an economic crisis

I like to consider the current amount of traffic in and out of the State of Maine a pretty good amount. Guilford having 6 trains in/out of Maine a day plus the SLR 2 a day and the MMA 2 every three days is great.

I doubt any of those carriers share your enthusiastic view of traffic levels.

In all seriousness, put that enthusiasm to good use. As you're at UMO (and studying business I believe?), MMA's offices are a stone's throw away for you. If you're taking any finance/accounting courses, possibly you could do a special rail-oriented project for extra credit, maybe something about how railroads factor costs into their pricing structures, or the intricacies of interline revenue settlements... or car-hire accounting? Call Don Gardner, the CFO at MMA and see if he or one of his team would be willing to help you.

If you don't come away from that with a completely different perspective, dang, I'll send you 10 bucks and you can go treat yourself to lunch and a big piece of cherry pie at Dysart's.

haha well thank you for the kind advice. I'm currently working on 1000 projects here at the University but I'm pleased to Announce that I am interested in Railroad Management as a career. I've recently been making phone calls and shooting off emails to certain big name railroads in look for Internship enrollment. Oh man 10 bucks to a college student can be a lot of things you know haha but Dysarts is always a good call.

Many "what ifs" are floating around this area when it comes to rail traffic

One thing that worries me is the St Stephen branch of the NBSR,if traffic doesn't pick up this may be abandoned along with the Woodland switching operation with Flakeboard being shut down for now and the mill in Woodland's traffic drying up its only a matter of time.

Same with west of Saint John with McAdam's traffic going down in the tubes with Westrock's plant traffic finished for now and only 3 trains per week,St Stephen's work all but done (8 cars in 2 weeks) and the MMA on hard times I truely hope this line won't see the fate of the scrapper

Should be an interesting next few months....to say the least. Does anyone notice the status of the other New England roads as far as layoffs? I've heard traffic is way down on the NECR so MMA is not the only one hurting.

At least the Derby Shop won't be going out of business any time soon: they've got more F40s coming to be rebuilt for AMT in Montreal.

I know this has to do with MMA, but I for one think Maine and the region could benefit if PAR would simply crash and cease to exist. Too bad the Norfolk Southern/Pan Am agreement with PAS couldn't have come together about five....ten years ago. Many suspect that it will be just a matter of time before NS makes a decision on to buy PAS outright. It's as if NS is just "testing the waters" before it's chance to invade the region as CSX did in the southern portion. If I were in an NS office lately, I'd be nearly snickering at seeing CSX slowly pulling out of Beacon Park in Boston proper. Sure, PAR's old infrastructure in Beantown sucks, but it's not totally gone. If NS was to move into Boston, it would surely impact Portland, Maine and beyond. Better interchange partenerships and better service nearly guaranteed.

It's really too bad MMA has to depend on PAR for any rail interchange to go south of Bangor, and I think having PAR as a main connection is a big reason for MMA's problems among the others mentioned.
On a job site in Bucksport the other day, the owner(a Verso employee) mentioned how PAR can't even keep up with below-normal demand at Verso. Only two of FIVE paper machines are running right now! What does that tell you? PAR is a joke, and they bring down the capabilities of other roads, too. It's like coupling an SD70 to a GP9.

calaisbranch wrote: Many suspect that it will be just a matter of time before NS makes a decision on to buy PAS outright.

Every decision is based upon economics and in this case it would be driven by Guilford's asking price. Plus anticompetive issues.

calaisbranch wrote: If I were in an NS office lately, I'd be nearly snickering at seeing CSX slowly pulling out of Beacon Park in Boston proper.

The "action" isn't in Boston anymore, but out in the beltways surrounding the city. No reason to be snickering with CSX getting high-cube doublestack capy. into New England, cutting costs 15-40%/domestic container (against 90% of NS's existing New England intermodal traffic), on top of a solid competitive intermodal advantage with better infrastructure, route structure and service 1-2 days faster, to many o/d's vs. 1, supported by 5 times the number of trains including multiple daily departures in key lanes, with huge technical and economic barriers to blunt that advantage. Wimpering might be more like it.

calaisbranch wrote: If NS was to move into Boston, it would surely impact Portland, Maine and beyond. Better interchange partenerships and better service nearly guaranteed.

There would be no benefit to Maine traffic for NS to "move into Boston"...Ayer is better than Boston.

calaisbranch wrote:It's really too bad MMA has to depend on PAR for any rail interchange to go south of Bangor, and I think having PAR as a main connection is a big reason for MMA's problems among the others mentioned.

MMA's problems are much bigger than PAR's service and come from Maine's paper industry problems and an overall lack of a replacement generator of rail-oriented traffic. MMA traffic destined south and west can be routed around PAR via the CP or even via the WACR/VRS to CP or CSX.

How is rerouting via CP going to help MMA if they have to send cars out of the country just to get them back in? Sure, it's a reroute option. WACR? For some reason, speed doesn't come to mind when I hear them mentioned. MMA is hurting just for business, so I guess it wouldn't reall matter in the long run.

I shouldn't have really used Boston as a MA point for NS to possibly settle in, but the...."drop Guilford/PAR" option was my main focus. In all due respect, you can't convince me that Portland , Maine and its area railroads would NOT benefit from an NS takeover! Basically everyone would.

By the way, CSX is supposed to eventually scale back to Worcestor since Harvard has bought the property underneath Beacon Park Yard. Not to mention, they have maybe......60% percent of container counts that Conrail ran over the Boston line in the mid to late 1990s. Those numbers had already dropped well before the current economic crisis.