Cowford wrote:Intermediate conclusion: For the greater Portland "diaspora", the GT line's only strategic advantage is its location in Falmouth... and Falmouth is too close to Portland to attract commuter rail riders. MDOT's recent study on Portland North commuter issues confirms this.
The above intermediate conclusion was contained in a paragraph dealing with local service. I'll address a broader point but also this conclusion directly.
The GT line's primary strategic advantage is that it allows rail service to Lewiston - Auburn to bypass PAR. I will agree and acknowledge that there simply is no need or demand at this time or for the next 5 years (minimum) projected for Lewiston - Auburn to Portland passenger rail service.
There are two substantial bottlenecks that the line bypasses entirely, one in Deering and the other being the "Back Road" from Royal Junction to Lewiston.
The line also allows MDOT to bypass PAR on an administrative/tactical basis as well, should that be necessary. While this may not be necessary any longer should freight volumes ever change on PAR's lines the balance of the equation would change as well. In particular this would mean that if for whatever reason MDOT/NNEPRA wanted to run service to Lewiston - Auburn the track improvements required from PAR could be substantial (due to some kind of change in their freight operations).
One of the dominant reasons that the Brunswick Branch rehabilitation didn't cost more than it did was because PAR's freight volume on that line is very low. PAR felt comfortable with taking a branch rehabilitation and not asking for a lot of passing sidings because they knew the would likely always be able to work around whatever interchange traffic they would have with the MERR.
Using the Back Road to serve L/A might not be so simple. Furthermore should MDOT/NNEPRA ever start running other services to L/A or even the unrealistic possibility of Montreal the tracks through Deeing simply may not have the capacity that PAR feels they would need to assure minimal freight-passenger interference. I would generally agree that installing double track through Deeing to Royal Junction is likely cheaper than building a new bridge but when your start talking about additional improvements to the Back Road all the way to Lewiston I'm not so sure the equation stays the same, especially if you are looking for a sure-fire way to avoid delays and interference.
Cowford wrote:So how do you justify a $40 million+++ expenditure?
Right now you don't which is why it won't and shouldn't happen. However some small improvements here and there to keep the Right of Way viable into the future seem very prudent. When the time comes at least they'll still have the option should they think they need it.