If the T wanted 2nd hand electrics it could pull NJTs out of the Cutoff and have them fixed up. Probably not happening. As discussed on the thread respecting the issue, SEPTA seems to be where the best running 7ACs are destined. Keolis have a good view of what's going on at MARC from their perch at VRE so it will be interesting to see what approach they bring to the T. If there was a longer range electric plan, they could look at buying options from whatever SEPTA eventually get, or Toronto GO Transit.
dowlingm wrote:If the T wanted 2nd hand electrics it could pull NJTs out of the Cutoff and have them fixed up. Probably not happening. As discussed on the thread respecting the issue, SEPTA seems to be where the best running 7ACs are destined. Keolis have a good view of what's going on at MARC from their perch at VRE so it will be interesting to see what approach they bring to the T. If there was a longer range electric plan, they could look at buying options from whatever SEPTA eventually get, or Toronto GO Transit.Yeah. That's the other thing. GO is electrifying. Caltrain is electrifying. AMT really wants to go whole-hog electrification, but probably has to do the same thing GO did and start mass-purchasing all its commuter lines for from CP and CN to get the freight roads to drop their objections (funny how they say double stacks are incompatible with new electrification until there's a paper transfer of the ownership...then double stacks are compatible!). There's going to be a lot more electric competition served up for 2020 when these agencies take requests for first purchases or expansion purchases. A lot more dual-mode competition while electrification is at partial build-out (could definitely see California picking some duals up for Caltrain while they're at half-build and still mostly reliant on push-pull, the San Joaquin for the portions it uses the first CAHSR segment, and then shifting some units around to Metrolink when Caltrain's finished and it's their turn to start wiring). And probably the first real bi-level/multi-level, FRA-compliant EMU's that can run on the NEC's AC voltage pu-pu platter.
So what exactly is the rush? This stuff is all in the R&D departments of the major manufacturers right now, out of public view. But the 2020's are going to be a very good market for next-gen North American electrics, so agencies are going to be flooded with sales pitches in another 5-7 years. So why does it matter that not every NEC commuter railroad is using electrics today...or that they should immediately buy old beaters today? The MBTA's next loco purchase lines up with 2020, when...coincidence!...GO and Caltrain and others are stringing up wires and doing their equipment shopping. And when RIDOT's Providence-Westerly service is supposed to be a go giving the T a much larger Providence pool fleet to sustain...which RIDOT will increase its % ownership of for additional vehicle scale. We've already established why the AEM-7AC's are useless for them today; they have nowhere to service them, and can't segregate electric vs. non-electric fleets until they build somewhere to service them...which isn't going to happen in an instant. Yeah, they should make more concrete plans for electrics and it sucks that MARC went back to diesels out of spite. But are these permanent conditions? What happens if Bombardier stuffs a conventional married-pair and singlet EMU (not the power car idea they floated to NJT, but a fully conventional EMU) into an MLV carbody, and NJT and SEPTA order 250 each with a slew of options. Maybe that's what gets MARC and the MBTA into the electrics game: somebody else's economy-of-scale driving down the unit cost, and somebody else doing the teething work. Isn't that exactly how Denver got its fleet...by having SEPTA suffer through the Silverliner V blooper reel so they didn't have to?
I think we're looking way too hard in-the-moment at this. Just because an engine exists doesn't mean it fits somebody's capabilities today for immediate re-use, and just because somebody passes up an engine today doesn't mean that 5 years from now in a 5-years-from-now's electrics market they won't be in a very different place re: means and opportunity. The AEM-7AC's are not going to sit mothballed in a yard for 5 years waiting for the perfect timing on somebody else's electrification plans...then suddenly come back to life. There's only limited places they go now...pretty much just SEPTA and MARC. MARC because they can probably be bought off...I mean, they could just as easily dump their 6 underpowered GP39's and have the 10 extra diesel options replace those + cushion if they can successfully ransom some near-free AC Toasters out of their temper tantrum. I'd applaud them for their fiendish brilliance if they were able to pull off that bit of trickery. And SEPTA probably does need to get its ducks in a row about what they'll conceivably be looking at for Silverliner IV replacements before they decide if their push-pull fleet stays same size, gets bigger...which would make the short-term rentals more manageable.
