Brightline (All Aboard Florida) Orlando - Miami FL FEC fka Virgin Rail

[Arlington]

First they will complain that the passenger trains are a "mile long" and keep the gates down too long
Then they will realize that the passenger trains are both shorter and faster, meaning short gate closures
At which point they'll shift to complaining about being scared that the trains are going too fast.
People hate change.

[Ridgefielder]

...and in five years, they'll complain that there isn't enough train service. Or that the trains are late.

[ExCon90]

In Carlsbad, CA the Surfliners, now practically clockers, routinely blow by at the track speed of 90 mph (ATS for many years now), and the locals are quite used to it. They know not to stand near the track, and the train is gone almost before they can blink. There don't seem to have been any problems.

[Arlington]

So, there should be plenty of railfain videos taken at crossings by now...

[Gilbert B Norman]

...And this one is going out to..... Mr. Arlington:

https://youtu.be/OVJOPlrCLTU" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Arlington]

Thanks! Can Brightline really scare the locals at such leisurely speeds?

[bostontrainguy]

So the engine colors aren't coordinated with the car colors I guess? Good looking train but I think the colors could have been a bit better applied.

Update: Actually checking other videos these don't seem to match the other engines.

[deathtopumpkins]

Kinda surprised I haven't seen this posted here... (apologies if it was and I missed it)

http://www.miamitodaynews.com/2017/12/0 ... ent-grade/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Not great news for Brightline, but some interesting info on Brightline's financials in there:

The pro forma presented by the company to Fitch shows that under the company’s assumptions Brightline can break even if stabilized ridership falls 44% lower than projected. The rail line projected a three-year ramp-up period before riders stabilize at 2.9 million per year in 2020, starting at 1.1 million in 2018 and increasing to about 2.3 million in 2019.
Fitch’s own analysis says that it will take four years, not three, to stabilize ridership, starting with 587,000 passengers in 2018, 1.1 million in 2019 and 2.3 million in 2020. Fitch then reduced Brightline’s passenger figures by 20%, starting with 907,000 in 2018.
Brightline told Fitch it has planned for a $24 million ramp-up reserve, a six-month debt service reserve fund, $30 million in the funded interest account and a $50 million working capital revolver.
Fitch based all of its studies on a fare structure for the rail line that is to change with demand, time of day and day of the week. It provided no hint of what those fares might be, and in the past Brightline has said only that fares would be heavily discounted at the outset of service. Fitch does say that Brightline projects gross fare revenue for 2020 at a total of $107.3 million.

Particularly interesting is that Brightline is expected to be able to remain profitable even if ridership is as much as 44% lower than projected.

This article also lists a startup date of March 2018. The Brightline website still doesn't confirm this, but it is looking increasingly unlikely that there will actually be revenue service this month.

[Gilbert B Norman]

A far more interesting Fair Use quotation from the article Mr. Pumpkins linked:

The startup luxury Brightline rail service that is now expected to link Miami with West Palm Beach by the end of March 2018 has received a non-investment grade rating on about $600 million in revenue bonds that are to be issued by the Florida Development Finance Corp. on behalf of the line’s owners.
Fitch Ratings, which was hired by owner All Aboard Florida-Operations to rate the bonds, last week initially rated the bonds BB-, contingent on the final pricing of the bonds.
Fitch said the bonds’ relatively low grade “reflects Brightline’s standing as a new-market, US luxury rail project that exhibits uncertain demand and revenue generation potential.” The service also pointed to the uncertain nature of the market’s “willingness to pay” for the luxury rail as opposed to use of passenger cars.

[gokeefe]

I'm fascinated by the idea that the rating agency treated Brightline as "luxury". Not sure if this was their conclusion or Brightline's idea. Ironically the "junk" rating is probably going to attract a lot of speculative capital looking for a good home.

[Bonevalleyrailfan]

Some things to consider. A BB- (expected) rating is not far below the minimum rating for investment grade bonds (BBB-). And Fitch did say that the final rating would be dependent on the pricing of the bonds. This is why Fitch labeled the AAF bonds rating as expected, not a sure thing for the bonds to remain at BB-. Investors placed $2 Billion in bids for just $600 Million in bonds offered. I would assume this would affect the final pricing and might be enough to change the rating to a BB or maybe a BB+. BB+ is the highest speculative rating, just below a BBB-. So any speculation on the rating of the bonds at this time is just that, speculation. So to lump these bonds in with all other junk bonds is a bit misleading, as junk bonds can be rated as low as a C. The previous bond sale from 2015 was unrated (true junk!) by the rating agencies, by the way. So that in itself is a big improvement in how the market sees AAF over the past 2 years.

[chrsjrcj]

Here is a video closer to speed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCdIfjtDelM" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There have been simulated test runs daily now, with two trains going back and forth between West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale. The March opening is probably Miami (which considering this: https://www.thenextmiami.com/hard-hat-t ... micentral/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; is probably still too optimistic). Limited service between West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale should start beforehand.

It's now being reported by the Palm Beach Post, that Brightline will ask for permission to issue $1.15 bn in bonds to finance West Palm Beach to Orlando: http://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/business ... rcpWDmN0J/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Meanwhile, St. Lucie and Martin counties have appeared to finally given up the fight against Brightline: http://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/local/ ... 935981001/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[CentralValleyRail]

First they will complain that the passenger trains are a "mile long" and keep the gates down too long
Then they will realize that the passenger trains are both shorter and faster, meaning short gate closures
At which point they'll shift to complaining about being scared that the trains are going too fast.
People hate change.

In particular old retied florida people

[Gilbert B Norman]

https://www.fdfcbonds.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sure seems like $600M, let alone $1.7B, is a bit more than this FDFC agency has chewed upon in the past. Review the list of recent projects they have been involved with and you'll see most have been within the NFP sector - and $8M is a "bigun" for them. The use of the term "Revenue Bonds" implies that there is no guarantor beyond the revenue that AAF - a subsidiary of a subsidiary - can generate.

I guess they can oversee the issue of Private Activity Bonds under IRC Sec 141(a).

Going to this agency seems to me a "grandstand play". If there is so much expectation that this venture will generate a fair return, then why hasn't parent company Softbank reached in to their pocket and pulled out some loose ¥.

[Jeff Smith]

Press Release: https://gobrightline.com/brightline-ach ... l-u-s-dot/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Company to launch service to Miami and start construction on Phase 2 expansion to Orlando in early 2018

MIAMI – December 15, 2017 – Today, the U.S. Department of Transportation issued a Record of Decision for the privately funded Brightline intercity passenger rail project between Miami and Orlando. The Record of Decision (ROD) represents the final step in the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process after the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) was issued in 2015 and is the last federal environmental approval needed to construct the system between West Palm Beach and Orlando. This decision marks the achievement of another significant milestones for the company as it gears up to launch Phase 1 of its service and start construction north of West Palm Beach.

“This is the most critical and final step in the extension of Brightline’s service to Orlando, and we are excited to move forward with Phase 2,” said Dave Howard, Brightline’s CEO. “This was a great year for us as we completed construction on two of our major stations and rail infrastructure, successfully presold tickets and corporate packages to individuals and businesses throughout the region and priced $600 million in Private Activity Bonds to fund Phase 1. We look forward to launching service to Miami and starting construction north to Orlando in the first quarter of 2018.”

For the past four years, the Federal Railroad Administration, the lead agency, has worked with the Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Coast Guard, numerous local agencies, water management districts, cities and counties on the development and issuance of the FEIS. The process included extensive public outreach, including dozens of public meetings and the submission and consideration of thousands of public comments.

The project is moving full speed ahead. Over the next few months, Brightline will finalize the design for the rail infrastructure and the 70-acre Vehicle Maintenance Facility that will be located on Orlando International Airport property. Construction of the system will create thousands of jobs and provide a much-needed link between Florida’s two most visited and populated regions.

Brightline’s station in Orlando will be located at the Orlando International Airport’s new Intermodal Terminal Facility (ITF) that will be the hub of the future South Terminal complex. The ITF is connected to the North Terminal by a recently completed Automated People Mover and includes a 5,000-space parking garage. SunRail, Central Florida’s commuter rail system, has a planned connection to the ITF. The completion of the South Terminal will add 16 new gates for international and domestic flights.

Brightline will announce the launch date for the start of introductory service between Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach soon. The company expects to become fully operational and extend service into downtown Miami in early 2018.

About Brightline

Brightline is the new benchmark for travel by train in America with express inter-city passenger rail service connecting Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, with future service to Orlando. Providing a travel option that lives at the intersection of transportation and hospitality, the service will ease the stress of traffic, provide a simple and intuitive experience from door to destination, and foster new opportunities to explore more of Southeast Florida. Brightline is the only privately owned, operated and maintained passenger rail system in the United States. For more information, visit our website: http://www.gobrightline.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and follow us on Facebook and Twitter.