rogerfarnworth wrote:Hi George
The most telling time will be when Museveni decides that it is time to step down. If there can be a peaceful transition to another leader then there is some hope. Road conditions have improved considerable in the last few years and Uganda, although still not as stable as Kenya, is unrecognisable from my first stay in 1994. I too am unsure what will happen in the next few years, although stuttering steps are being taken in improving infrastructure.
In the last few years, for instance there are significantly more traffic lights in Kampala and a good proportion of traffic complying with the signals - although not all!
Best wishes
Roger
There is a question of whether Museveni himself has had any lasting effect on Uganda, apart from suppressing conflict. The ethnic divisions are probably rather fundamental. He is a Bantu (but not a Muganda) and rules from the opposite ethnic pole to Obote, who was Nilotic. Has he kept the northern Nilotics satisfied or do they still feel deprived? Will the Nilotics of the north ever feel like leaving Uganda and joining up with their linguistic cousins to the north - in South Sudan? More effective railways might improve the situation - a Standard link into the north, at least to Juba. My feeling is that the SG link should follow the eastern Nile from Kasese to Juba, rather than replacing the moribund Metre gauge route. In the 1960s Obote was keen on building the northern route, but I doubt if he received proper advice assuring him of its success. At best there was a hope that traffic might appear. I don't think it did. The same might be true of a SG line into south Sudan. Are there any potential exports for such a line? Possibly some cotton.They could import goods via Mombasa instead of the now unavailable trade from the Red Sea. Does that add up to sufficient justification?
Uganda's strength is the very fertile lands of the Baganda and other Bantu areas, where agriculture is so well-watered and prolific. But the Nilotic north is drier. It has only seasonal agriculture. In Uganda as a whole there are some potential energy resources: wind power from the convection winds generated by the lake, biogas from the agriculture, solar power, and above all, huge potential hydropower from the fall in the river from the Lake. It is unfortunate that they have found oil. For railways the hydropower points the way to electrification and energy that does not affect the world climate.