by andegold
I don't think it's so much about people thinking they won't make it to the train. They're not going to close the doors while 100 people are still on the escalator and another 200 on the platform. The mad rush is all about wanting a seat. Regardless of the odds people want to get down as quickly as possible and try to get those single seats on a multi-level or if they are in a group they know that the only way to sit together is to physically be on the train before everyone else. Finally there is the fear of either standing (not at all unusual on a NEC local and even on certain NEC expresses) or being stuck in the middle of a three seater. Early boarding, a very good example of this is frequently the 5:03 and 5:14 39XX trains are posted as much as 15 minutes early. Boarding is a breeze. Another fly in the ointment is minor delays. Let's say the 5:14 is five to ten minutes delayed. People who would normally catch the 5:28 will think "oh I can get the earlier train" or "oh great, the whole night will be delayed, I'd better get on this train while I can because the next one may never show up". The result is that the first train experiences a crush load that neither the stairs nor the train can handle and the following train pulls out first with dozens of empty seats.