BostonUrbEx wrote:Your math is flawed here.
A NS Rail link would benefit, at most, 40% of all commuters
You mean to say 40% of current ridership would have more direct access to Kendall Square. That is different from saying up to 40% of commuters would benefit from NSRL. On the whole, 100% of all riders have more direct access to different places.
Yes, 100% of all riders have more direct access, but that only has value if it is needed or used. How does a NSRL benefit my daughter who commutes from Natick to Yawkee every day? How does a NSRL benefit a lawyer from Fitchburg get to the Cambridge Court house at Lechmere? How does a NSRL benefit a Lowell doctor get to New England Medical Center?
The NS rail link would be used by fewer than 40% of all CR passengers. I stress "fewer" because I believe the actual number of users would be under 25%. The benefit to passengers who do not use commuter rail would be negligible. (e.g. Braintree to North Station passengers will still use the Orange Line because frequence of trains is more predictible and the transfer is free)
And as I pointed out in my previous post, the patrons who want to get from North Station to Kendall would save, at most, two minutes.
octr202 wrote:It's not just about the Lowell, Western, and Eastern Routes having better access to Kendall Square (which will still suffer from being further away from downtown no matter what), but think of the access to the Financial District (direct), Back Bay, the Seaport (close walking distance), and the LMA (much closer if trains serve Back Bay, Ruggles, or Yawkey when through-routed from the North side). And no, not every train will serve everywhere, but until we start trying to advance the tunnel project and the resulting upgrades to the rest of the CR system, commuters going to these areas will continue to eschew commuter rail service. When a commuter from Beverly or Reading spends the same amount of time or more getting from North Station to their workplace as they do on the commuter train itself, large numbers of these commuters will continue to drive. And as expensive as the NSRL is, we can't afford to create more road space and parking space in the city to accommodate these folks.
Yes, those passengers would benefit. I can't help but notice that all of your examples only benefit the riders from the north. Riders whose trains that terminate at South Station would have negigible benefit. However, the north commuters are only 37% of the CR passengers. And you're assuming (A) 100% of the North Station trains continue to BackBay, and (B) 100% of the North Station passengers want to go to South Staion or BackBay. It would not benefit those North Station passengers who want to go to any Green Line destination east of Copley, blue line, or Chinatown, NE Medical. The benefit to Cambridge access is minimal. This supports my belief that less than 25% of the CR passengers would benefit.
Arlington wrote:Yellowspoon wrote:...A NS Rail link would benefit, at most, 40% of all commuters, or about 1.1 million riders a month. With a monthly amortization cost of $17.9 million, that means that each use would cost someone about $16 per ride. That's about $7500 per year per person
The T has 1.1 Million rides* per day.
If we accept your number of 40%, that's 440,000 rides per day. [text omitted]
Not 40% of all MBTA users, just 40% of commuter rail passengers. There is no benefit to riders who do not use the commuter rail. There are ninety thousand daily commuter rail trips today. Commuter rail usage is not going to increase by a factor of five just because of the NSRL.