Amtrak Gateway Tunnels

In light of East Side Access, which is over 14 years late and hopelessly over budget, and quite similar to the tunnel-to deep cavern station design of ARC, what would you point to in order to demonstrate that Christie was wrong to think that overruns would be likely for the ARC project? The delays in delivering the 2nd avenue subway and the 7 extension won't be any help. It took the MTA how long to build the replacement South Ferry 1 Station, which then flooded during Sandy and must be rebuilt at a higher total cost than the original constriction, with the rebuild estimated at a half billion dollars.

I agree that CC should have held out for a better deal and perhaps a better design, but the time and cost estimates for ARC were comic.

JCGUY wrote:In light of East Side Access, which is over 14 years late and hopelessly over budget, and quite similar to the tunnel-to deep cavern station design of ARC, what would you point to in order to demonstrate that Christie was wrong to think that overruns would be likely for the ARC project? The delays in delivering the 2nd avenue subway and the 7 extension won't be any help. It took the MTA how long to build the replacement South Ferry 1 Station, which then flooded during Sandy and must be rebuilt at a higher total cost than the original constriction, with the rebuild estimated at a half billion dollars.

I agree that CC should have held out for a better deal and perhaps a better design, but the time and cost estimates for ARC were comic.

I think few people question the fact that the ARC numbers probably wouldn't stand up to the face of day. But I think it really does come down to the fact that Governor Christie didn't bother fighting at all (until now) for a better solution.

I'm actually both grateful he cancelled it, since I think it was a lousy solution and had it been built made the argument for Gateway infinitely harder and extremely frustrated that he didn't fight for anything better.

bdawe wrote:- if he had rather called for a redesign or had even rhetorically focused on ARC's technical issues, and tried to hold the funding for a superior design, then there might be some firm ground to stand on, but no. Killing ARC had nothing to do with technical flaws and everything to do with political optics, and politicians are responsible for politics

I think this is a part a lot of us have missed. Christie went in and defiantly (and blindly) dropped the axe to show he could standup to the NJ Democratic political machine. While it is clear to most (all here) that he killed a subpar flawed project, absolutely no one can say he did anything at all through diplomacy and sound leadership to understand and reevaluate the project. Instead, he decided to swing his "you know what" and shut it down, case closed, no negotiations, its over.

And here we are, 10 years after this project should have been completed, installing stop gaps and duct tape to a dilapidated system in an ever increasing urban population with no real light in sight, aside from perhaps a tunnel box that thank god someone had the genius to apply for funding through Sandy relief.

Mr. Moore's immediate point should not be taken lightly, for once the new Gateway tunnels are built, the existing tunnels had best be shut down for a top to bottom rebuilding. If both of them were to be shut, i.e. one for "top to bottom" and the other for routine maintenance, that would be "real sport" if Amtrak from Wash had to terminate in the subterranean world of the stub end NJT station. Passengers continuing to points on the New Haven would have to "pack it in" and ride escalators up to the existing platforms to continue on an NY-Boston train.

To reiterate, I'm in total agreement that Christie should have not simply cancelled the project, but should have tried to get a better deal.

What drove me up a wall in 2009 was that the feds were making vague statements about working with NJ on the project while they had a science fiction sized $1 trillion stimulus kitty to work with, and never applied to the project! The whole drama was like a bad Monty Python sketch ("They mean to win Wimbledon"...). I kept thinking ". . . what about the stimulus . . .". They could have offered to cover overruns using maybe 1% or 1/2 of 1% of the stimulus, which was marketed as being about infrastructure, but they never even suggested it. If the media had any sense of balance, this failing would have been pointed out, along with the irony that we have the first modern president who purports to be a train enthusiast who has more or less allowed the NEC to fester for 8 years.

When Krugman criticized the cancellation of ARP some time ago, I sent him an email pointing out its major flaws. (He didn't answer.) Christie never once pointed out its technical flaws or asked for more Federal aid, stimulus money, etc. He proposed no redesign. He clearly wanted the project canceled for his own political purposes. Then he took the already-advanced money and spent it on other projects. That will make getting money for the Gateway project that much harder. The fact that the project had issues was not relevant to Christie. He was already running for President and wanted to be seen as a budget cutter.

Anyway, now both Christie and Cuomo weighed in as unwilling to spend any money on the Gateway project and some members of the NY Legislature joined in, saying it wouldn't benefit New York.I am assuming these positions are part of the ongoing negotiations. Despite outward appearances, neither Christie nor Cuomo are actually idiots. I fervently hope and believe that our officials understand that the project has to proceed. I figure there will be a couple of years of posturing and quiet negotiations and then the project will go forward.

As I understand the ARC project, there was NO connection to NYP, and no provision for Amtrak. Serious flaws for what should have been a regional solution. Of course, in an emergency, maybe NJT accommodates them. Or maybe we rebuild the Hudson River terminals and ferries!

Seriously, I'll bet once they get Gateway up and running, they'll have plans in place to shut down one North River tunnel for complete overhaul, and the other will shut down on weekends for "emergency" repairs and upgrades.

But they need to start what they can, now.

Side note: I appreciate the extremely well thought out political discussion in the last couple of posts; honest criticism of Christie AND the press. Nicely done. None of the usual inflammatory and hyperbolic statements!

Jeff Smith wrote:Seriously, I'll bet once they get Gateway up and running, they'll have plans in place to shut down one North River tunnel for complete overhaul, and the other will shut down on weekends for "emergency" repairs and upgrades.

But they need to start what they can, now.

There is no need to "bet" that they will have plans to shut down one North River tunnel for complete overhaul after the 2 new Gatewat tunnels are open. That IS the plan, front and center in the viewgraph presentations. The most recent Gateway presentation to the NJ Senate on August 10 lays out an overview of the proposed project components and the hoped for schedule. Building the new tunnels so the existing North River tunnels can be shut down, one at a time, for over a year each, is in big letters on the viewgraphs. Yes, while the first North River tunnel is shut down for complete rebuild, the second old tunnel would likely close on weekends for maintenance to keep it going until it gets rebuilt. But that would leave 2 new tunnels open, so there will be more weekend capacity that they have now.

This is looking way ahead, but if they open the 2 new tunnels, my bet is that the rebuild time for each of the North River tunnels extends into a 18-24 month project, not simply >12 months. If a miracle occurs, and the entire project gets done by 2030 or 2031 (ok, a BIG miracle), then and only then will there be 4 tunnels and tracks open from NYP to Newark, providing a significant increase in capacity and redundancy. Still, a fixed span North Portal bridge and 2 new tunnels will improve the situation considerably. In circa 2025, again, if a miracle occurs.

JCGUY wrote:To reiterate, I'm in total agreement that Christie should have not simply cancelled the project, but should have tried to get a better deal.

What drove me up a wall in 2009 was that the feds were making vague statements about working with NJ on the project while they had a science fiction sized $1 trillion stimulus kitty to work with, and never applied to the project! The whole drama was like a bad Monty Python sketch ("They mean to win Wimbledon"...). I kept thinking ". . . what about the stimulus . . .". They could have offered to cover overruns using maybe 1% or 1/2 of 1% of the stimulus, which was marketed as being about infrastructure, but they never even suggested it.

The 2009 stimulus was not quite a trillion dollars, but about $780 billion. Still a lot, but a large piece of it was temporary tax cuts and tax incentives, about $288 million of the total. So the actual spending part was roughly $500 billion or less than DOD spends in a year. But, checking the Wikipedia entry on the 2009 ARRA stimulus, transportation spending was $48 billion total. Of that, $27.5 billion was for road and bridge projects, and those funds would have been untouchable for anything other than roads and bridges. So the total left for transit category spending was roughly $21 billion with $8 billion of that for HSIPR, much of which is only now being spent (thanks largely, AFAIT, to the end of FY2017 deadline).

The ARC project was fully funded and Christie could have negotiated how to handle the inevitable cost increases and overruns out of annual federal and NJ funding spread over the next 8-10 years. Or set aside much of the Port Authority funds and NJT contributions for a better project design. But he didn't and here NJ and the Northeast are, facing a serious problem with failing 105+ year old tunnels and bridges.

That's a pretty good link (the presentation to the NJT Senate). Now, they just have to get the funding. It's infuriating, because this, while a lot of money, is a drop in the bucket in total federal spending.

Hawaiitiki wrote:And here we are, 10 years after this project should have been completed, installing stop gaps and duct tape to a dilapidated system in an ever increasing urban population with no real light in sight, aside from perhaps a tunnel box that thank god someone had the genius to apply for funding through Sandy relief.

Given that it's taken 7 1/2 years to lengthen the #7 Line by 1 3/8 miles, I think saying that the new North River tubes would be complete and in service by now is a bit optimistic.

Also, to be honest- was there really much discussion, pre-Sandy (i.e. 2012) of the need for new tunnels because the current ones were wearing out? I don't recall that- it seems to me that most talk was of capacity expansion, not replacement. Railroad infrastructure is super long-lived. Nobody's talking about the Hell Gate Bridge being obsolete yet that structure will be 100 next year. Perhaps the structural engineers among us knew there were problems brewing, but for the man in the street that didn't become obvious until after the tunnels flooded. And politicians are, after all, elected by the man in the street...

Pre-Sandy, it's true that few people were thinking about damage to the tunnels. But everyone has known for years that the tunnels' capacity was maxed out. That's why, despite having dual-mode engines, Raritan trains only go to NYP in off-peak hours and Main/Bergen trains don't go there at all. One important function of government is to plan for the future. This function has been notable by its absence from all levels of government, with the possible exception of the military. I guess we could ask them to build the tunnels, but that would undoubtedly add a few zeroes to the cost.

Ridgefielder wrote:

Hawaiitiki wrote:And here we are, 10 years after this project should have been completed, installing stop gaps and duct tape to a dilapidated system in an ever increasing urban population with no real light in sight, aside from perhaps a tunnel box that thank god someone had the genius to apply for funding through Sandy relief.

Given that it's taken 7 1/2 years to lengthen the #7 Line by 1 3/8 miles, I think saying that the new North River tubes would be complete and in service by now is a bit optimistic.

Also, to be honest- was there really much discussion, pre-Sandy (i.e. 2012) of the need for new tunnels because the current ones were wearing out? I don't recall that- it seems to me that most talk was of capacity expansion, not replacement. Railroad infrastructure is super long-lived. Nobody's talking about the Hell Gate Bridge being obsolete yet that structure will be 100 next year. Perhaps the structural engineers among us knew there were problems brewing, but for the man in the street that didn't become obvious until after the tunnels flooded. And politicians are, after all, elected by the man in the street...

Hell gate might not be the best example - one could argue it is somewhat overbuilt. Many years ago there was some science magazine article on what would happen to NYC if all human life ended - with hell gate being one of the last things to collapse. If they would just painted the damned thing more often it would probably last a very very long time.

I too suspect pre-sandy the public just didn't feel the affects as much as they do now. Factor in the economic vitality of the NYC area on a whole, and you have more people trying to cram into the same, now badly decaying, rail systems. (I'm assuming ridership is up on NJT into penn?) Not many paid attention to the sad state of the NYC subways until delays were springing up every day, with each delay disrupting significantly more people.

And we can't discount the technology factor: everyone has a smart phone now, and complaining to social media about your horrible commute is a daily study in comparing horror stories.

JoeG wrote:Christie never once pointed out its technical flaws or asked for more Federal aid, stimulus money, etc. He proposed no redesign.

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Yes on the latter, no on the former, he went with the NJ Sierra Club's formulation of the "train to Macy's basement" to illustrate the flaws in the alignment.

More on the East River tunnels but "Don't get between him and a camera" Schumer is trying to get more money for Amtrak due to Sandy issues.

US Sen. Charles Schumer is asking the feds to hand over $550 million in yet-unclaimed Sandy-relief funds to Amtrak so the agency can make direly needed repairs to the beleaguered East River rail tunnels.