Will Amtrak survive the next four years?

I don't intend to start a political debate, but I think it is a fair question to ask if Amtrak will survive four more years of a Bush administration. If so, will it survive with the national network intact?

I believe that the National system is in jeapordy, but I make that statement without regard to who will be or might have been the tennant @ 1600 come January 20.

Quite simply the Class Ones disinvestment of track capacity during the past century and coupled with the significant traffic increases realized since Staggers that may simply have come to the rails by default rather than through any "how may we help you' marketing initiatives, the luxury of committing track capacity to even a filled intercity passenger train is simply one that the economy cannot afford.

That is why I am pessimistic - "W" or the "two Johns" notwithstanding.

The Corridor is, of course, "here to stay"; so likely are the trains comprising the California initiative - even though they could well be operated by an entity other than Amtrak.

I think Amtrak is here to stay if they would try get rite of it. The Public would go crazy but I think their is no Question the State Funded Trains will keep going like the Hiawahta, etc. Also my Question is how can the most propersus Country in the world can't fund their Passenger Rail System? This is why I didn't want Bush.

AmtrakFan

I am interested in finding out about how the changes in Congress will affect Amtrak funding. Did Amtrak lose any friends or enemies, and are any of the incoming Congresspeople known for any passenger rail sentiments?

The only one I can think of is Senator Byrd from WV - he retired this year.

Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter won reelection. He's been a supporter of Amtrak.

It depends on the midterm election more than likley.

I hope I'll have enough time in my schedule to accomidate all the forthcomming "last rides".

To follow up on Mr. Fan's thought expressed above, "W" with 52-48 does not have any kind of mandate to blow 'political capital" on any initiative, no matter how 'dear" it might be to some conservative faction within the GOP, to kill Amtrak in much the same manner as did Reagan/Stockman attempt during 1981.

It's "just not worth it"; what's $1B to the folks addicted with Potomac Fever?, and hey its OPM (i.e. YERZNMEIN).

lets hope not...

Look at the red-versus-blue maps that every television network has been displaying since last night. The blue (voted Kerry) states are basically those that have viable intercity regional rail service -- the Northeast, the upper Midwest, California, and the Pacific Northwest. The red states (voted Bush) as a general rule have only minimal service, a long distance train or two here or there. We know who's running the show for the next four years.

I don't want to swap cause and effect here -- urban areas tend to vote Democratic and urban areas tend to have viable rail corridors. But the fact is, for most of America, Amtrak is probably about number fifty on their list of political concerns, and the areas where it *is* a significant concern don't represent a majority of the electorate.

Regional corridors in the Northeast, Chicago area, California, and Northwest are probably safe, in my opinion, because their high ridership constitutes a political support base. But as for a national system still existing four years from now, I wouldn't bet on it unless something big changes. If nothing else, the accelerating equipment shortage and the passive hostility of the freight mega-railroads will kill most long distance service in the absence of aggressive support from Congress.

A big threat to Amtrak in Washington could simply become the changing agenda. It is likely that given the President's undisputed win, and increased GOP control in Congress, that the whole political agenda will be shifted to the right. Many issues that before wouldn't have made it off the drawing board may become realities on the floor of the House and Senate. That means those who support Amtrak may very well have a lot of favored causes and programs to defend. They may wish Amtrak well, but how many will be willing to expend political capital to save it when so many other battles may be looming.

We can predict that Amtrak's cash starvation will get worse. We can predict that no long-distance rolling stock will be bought. Corridors will survive. The national network won't be eliminated, but it will slowly wither, as it has been doing. (No Corridor Night Owl/Federal/Twilight Shoreliner, no sleeper service on the old Pennsy Broad Way, etc.--that's only this year's losses.) Mr. Gunn is doing repairs to long distance cars, but somehow we lose sleeper lines. (I'm not blaming Gunn. He never will get what he asks for to run Amtrak, and he has to make choices.)
It will be a depressing time for Amtrak. The only hope of a resurgence might be if the price of oil continues to rise.

Will the Bush administration keep Gunn or appoint a new Amtrak chief for the 2nd term?

The next four (or at least the next two) years will be tough on Amtrak. It will be starved of the capital needed to restore it to a state of good repair (a major Gunn request) and don't expect any funding for high speed or expansion.

A few more long distance trains may come off (we already lost the Three Rivers), but by and large the national system will survive because the folks in the Red States won't give up what they got and the politicians will go to bat for them. That's always been Amtrak dirty political secret: keep trains running across mid-America and the South so the politicians will support its operations in the Northeast, California, etc.

There is no upside for a politician to vote against trains if it upsets voters in Wolf Point, Topeka or Lordsburg,

Unfortunately Arlen Specter has been re-elected. But there was nothing he could do to save the 3 Rivers...one less LD train.

You're assuming Amtrak even rates high enough on the average joe's political radar to even care about it.

Don't bet on it.

In any case, I think the white house is the least of Amtrak's problems - they've kinda gotten themselves into a hole, the FRA is regulating them to death, the Class Is want them dead, period. They have a (more) sympathetic ear this time, but historically, neither red nor blue has been very good to them.

Can Amtrak survive? I don't know.

Though, I bet you this - within weeks of Amtrak's death if/when it happens, the FRA will roll back tier I and II...