lpetrich wrote:NYC - Chicago strikes me as a rather long shot, even assuming TGV speeds. To get an idea of what one may expect, let us estimate the speed of the Paris-Lyon TGV. Its best scheduled time is 1h 51m, and the distance along paralleling highways is 289 mi, giving an average speed of 156 mph.
Let us now consider various NYC-Chicago routes, using Google Maps highway distances, as with Paris-Lyon.
First, the populations of those two cities' metropolitan areas: 18.8m and 9.8m. Most of the cities along the way are not nearly as populous.
All the routes will share Cleveland, OH as an intermediate stop. Its population is 2.3m, one of the largest in between. Nearby Akron has 0.7m, and is thus less suitable.
Cleveland is at a respectable distance from Chicago for HSR service: 344 mi, or a travel time of 2h 12m. Toledo has 0.7m people and South Bend 0.1m.
The shortest NYC-Chicago route is by I-80 through central Pennsylvania. Its distance is 806 mi and its travel time 5h 10m. The largest city along the way is Youngstown, OH, at 0.6m, and my former home of State College, PA is 0.04m. It is also a very mountainous route.
Looking southward and using the PRR/NS/Amtrak ROW through Philadelphia, at 5.8m, Harrisburg at 0.5m, Pittsburgh, at 2.5m, and Youngstown, I find 883 mi and travel time 5h 40m. NYC - Pittsburgh would make a respectable HSR route at 406 mi or 2h 36m, though it would require much construction in western Pennsylvania's mountains.
Looking northward to NY's Southern TIer and the former Nickel Plate route through Scranton, PA, at 0.5m, Binghamton, NY at 0.2m, and Erie, PA at 0.3m, I find 890 mi and 5h 43m. It is also rather mountainous, and only parts of it may be Nickel Plate (I'm recalling an old map).
Further northward to the NYC/CSX Water Level route through Albany, at 1.1m, Syracuse, at 0.7m, Rochester, at 1.1m, Buffalo, NY, at 1.3m, and Erie, I find 972 mi or 6h 14m. Construction will be the easiest, but it will be the slowest route, at over 1 hour more than the most direct route. The NYC - Buffalo distance is 435 mi, or 2h 47m. It is a bit of a stretch for HSR, but it is still reasonable.
Summary:
The shortest route goes through a lot of thinly populated mountains. A Philly-Pittsburgh route would be somewhat longer, but it would require less mountain construction, and it would serve some respectable-sized populations. An Albany-Buffalo route would be even longer, but it would require even less mountain construction, and would still serve some respectable-sized populations.
It would be difficult to justify a NYC-Chicago HSR line unless one could serve cities in between, meaning that one ought to use use either the Philly-Pittsburgh route or the Albany-Buffalo route. This would make it a concatenated-corridor route, with many of its passengers going distances shorter than the complete route.
Great points. I have a few ideas that could perhaps make these choices better.
First, if this idea is to make sense, the NYC-Chicago route has to be more attractive than airtravel, which means TGV technology will not work for these distances. The AGV technology that California is banking on is the minimum. Because the distances are longer then the average speed can be greater (big assumption given the terrain). But at a top speed of 220MPH, it is possible to imagine a higher average speed than 156 MPH on this route. Therefore the route should be as short as possible and as straight as possible, while being near to population centers where possible. Make sense?
So what route could work? How about the following:
NYC PENN STATION
Allentown/Reading (near Lehigh Valley regional airport)
(using old CNJ mainline, route 78, etc)
Pittsburgh-Franklin Park, PA (near ints of Rt 79 and rt 76 or north of there, 14.3 miles from Pittsburgh proper)
Perhaps new airport could be build in this area to join train station
(route would be straight as much as possible from Allentown)
Cleveland-Akron (Richfield, OH - 20 miles from both Cleveland and Akron in the middle) Near triangle of I77, I71 and I80. Perhaps new airport could be built here as well.
Toledo Express Airport (near I80)
Goshen, IN (20 miles south from Southbend, IN)
CHICAGO
Here are some spur connections that could use this route:
PHILADELPHIA TO ALLENTOWN TO CHICAGO
WASHINGTON, DC to HARRISBURG (joining north of) TO CHICAGO
BINGHAMTON to SCRANTON to ALLENTOWN to NYC and CHICAGO
DETROIT to NYC and CHICAGO
The spurs could use existing rail ROWs to reach the mainline and would not have to be the fastest (220MPH) grade track.
The idea is to not put stations through towns, but at highway intersections and near existing airports (even planning new ones).
Trains obviously would run express NYC to Chicago, but also could run with stops in between to serve localities.