Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:32 pm
Mr. Meyer, I'd sure like to locate that report the Incorporators accepted, but I cannot. However, you must be prepared to accept there is greater passenger traffic potential along the NP than the GN.
The report is not relevant, regardless. The salient point is simply about the logic of the statement. Even if the report said there was more endpoint ridership on the pre-Amtrak Empire Builder route, it is ridiculous to even state that could be a reason for choosing that route over another when the Amtrak route will be the only one between those endpoints. In other words, this kind of document would have sent Mr. Spock screaming back to Vulcan.
I will "accept there is greater passenger traffic potential along the NP than the GN" when the Empire Builder quits consistently outperforming all the other long distance routes in ridership. The general reason for such a claim is on-line population, but the Empire Builder has less of it at intermediate locations than any other long distance train based on similar mileage. Therefore, using that logic, it should be the least-ridden train. And, the 2009 study, Amtrak projected ridership on a restored North Coast Hiawatha to be well below that of the Empire Builder, with a cost recovery less than that of the Empire Builder (though the North Coast Hiawatha was projected to perform better as far as cost recovery and ridership than most other long-distance trains). It also should be noted that the 2009 projection for the North Coast Hiawatha was undoubtedly comparing it to the freshest available data for the existing long-distance trains, which would have been FY 2008. The North Coast Hiawatha study projected ridership of 359,800; Empire Builder ridership in FY2008 was 554,266 - half again the ridership of the second-place train, the Silver Star, at 367,139. The 2008 Empire Builder ridership was well before the Bakken Boom but was a result of the equipment of the train receiving renovated equipment and upgraded amenities in 2005, so it's easy to remain bullish on the Empire Builder knowing what a stellar performer it can be IF it is properly marketed, something that seems like such a distant dream today. So, I will accept your premise when data and logic allow. So far, not.
Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:32 pm
I accept your chronology regarding Sen. Mansfield, but his absence might well have been a factor regarding the choice to whack the Hi over the Builder when the Carter Cuts were effected.
Mansfield's absence in the Senate in 1979 definitely hindered the survivability of the North Coast Hiawatha; I believe there is a better than 50-50 chance that the train would have survived had Mansfield still been the Senate Majority Leader. But the Empire Builder would have survived, too. Mansfield always thought both routes should have service, and never would have lobbied for one route over the other. Mansfield was a person of impeccable integrity and represented ALL of Montana.
--Mark Meyer