NS buyout, what would it mean? (Hypothetical)

So there's always NS-G buyout rumors floating about. And as railfans we're always hoping that its true, because we're hoping that it would mean more trains. But realistically would this happen? Would NS try and pound the rails looking for customers or would they just do the status quo like G has it now? Would they be more willing to deliver to customers like Newlyweds or would they try and drop them just like G tries to? Would it really make a difference if NS (or anyone) buys out G, or are we all just getting out hopes up?

There are some things that would certainly happen if NS got the ST, such as rebuilding the mainline up to NS Standards. First and foremost, they would try to develop more Intermodal business at Ayer and would also likley get back into the Auto distribution business at Ayer - maybe Chrysler, Toyota or Honda. More than likley they would open one of their big Thoroughbred transload sites, again, possibley up in Ayer. Up in Maine they would provide better equipment and service to the mills, thus growing their marketshare and would also probably increase business off of the MMA and NBSR with a direct connection to those two roads. I doubt that they would be any more interested then PAR as far as serving that one customer on the end of a falling apart branchline, but they would probably be able to increase marketshare with larger existing customers due to better service. I also think they would get a lot more Industrial Development opportunities with PAR's bad image gone. Am guessing if the NS ran the place there would already be a Unit Ethanol train terminal over in Revere- something PAR just couldn't put together.

It might also mean that everyone is fired! (Joking)

On a more serious note, ST (PAR) is privately owned, so NS would
could not force a hostile takeover or just a buyout via a stock purchase.
They would have to negotiate a merger/takeover with the current owners.

One would wonder if the Conn River would be upgraded. This could be a real shot in the arm in terms of getting the Vermonter on a better route through the Pioneer Valley, and also whether NS would be interested in anything north of Portland. Or they could form a subsidiary short line type railroad called Maine Central, complete with harvest gold or marroon locomotives trotting around, a la a terminal railroad. Various locals and the longest road job from 'Keag could terminate in Portland, and then get tacked onto a NS train for points south/west.

Doubt it would do anything at all for the Conn River. NS already connects with the CN at several locations, so there would be little if any bridge traffic from the NECR and quite frankly, I could see them routing the Slurry train over Hoosick Jct. Nobody (including the NS) is going to upgrade a line that sees 2-3 trains per week that really has no hope of ever being a strategic piece for them. They would concentrate on building both their Intermodal and Auto franchises at Ayer (CSXT has almost all of that business now on the B&A) and would also be very happy to get direct access to those big Paper mills in Maine and Saint John, NB. I also think they'd build a big transload terminal in the Ayer/Fitchburgh/Lowell area. Just my $.02...

So if the Conn River wasn't wanted, it would probably be best to go to Rail America and the New England Central to connect the CSOR with NECR. Perhaps then P&W could take the NECR line south of East Northfield MA to CT, in addition to the Guilford lines in CT. Seems like there is a lot of customer potential along the lines Guilford has in CT but, well, we all know the rest of that story.

The CSO is bound by a Paper Barrier with CSXT that forces them to pay a VERY stiff penalty if they interchange cars with someone other than CSXT, without CSXT's blessing. For that very reason, PAR does not interchange with CSO. This was implimented by Conrail when they sold off lines but wanted to make sure they held onto the long haul. They used to call them Conrail Express shortlines. So even if the NECR bought the Conn River from PAR, they would have little opportunity to single line freight with the CSO. NS has sold off lines with much better freight density than the Conn River, so again, am guessing they'd run the Main line to Keag and possibly the line up to Nashua/Bow. Doubt very much they'd want anything to do with the Boston Cluter as density on those lines is practically non-existant.

I guess I can add my guesses to the rest of them here. I think some of
the marginal branches and other lines would probably be sold off or
abandoned. I think the tracks would be upgraded big time. Most of the
locomotives would be traded in or otherwise disposed of in time.
No more operations in Connecticut and probably the Conn River Line
would also be sold off (what Guilford still has left that is).
The employees would be hit with a two edge sword, their working
conditions would likely improve, newer and better motive power, a
railroad that is well maintained and everything in better condition. On the
down side, discipline would be drastically increased and strict compliance
with operating rules (all of them) or you will be walking for quite a while.
You will get your orders from some place far off rather than Massachusetts
and Maine and it will take some time to get familiar with all of the changes
that will take place.
Now that I have said all of that, I do not see this happening anytime soon.
Noel Weaver

All this doesn't address the most important piece of speculation as to WHY the NS would even want Pan Am in the first place. Other than coal and intermodal, they would seem to have no stake in it at all. I would only speculate on them buying the railroad if and when they make an outright purchase of the D&H from CP. Unless they do that, Pan Am is isolated from their system.
Take a look at the NS system map and then see how tiny Pan Am is next to it. Why would they pay Pan Am's price (rumoured at around 450 million) for an appendage?

I think that NS would like Guilford, in order to enter the New England market. The do this now with the cooperation of D&H and Guilford, like on the piggybacks. I see that Guilford would get then more market penetration than CSX. CSX only has the B&A + associated branches.
If the New York area ports capacity was saturated, the Maritimes may a solution.
There could be some additional intermodal terminals beside Ayer. Look how CSX has Worcester, W. Springfield. NS could do the same. This is where the Conn River could be of use, unless there is a place for a yard near Greenfield. A local could lift pigs in Spfld. and meet the through train at Greenfield.

God willing, I would hope NS would never enter New England. There aren't many places left anymore where you can see anything on the mainline besides black or gray -9Ws and AC4400s and GEVOs as it is. Never understood why so many fans get so excited about seeing "more trains" (yeah right, as if THAT would happen under NS anyway! You guys need to see what has actually gone on in most former Conrail locations under NS- other than the Holy PRR Main, not much good has happened- Tier is dead, Bufalo line is in the process of being jettisoned, traffic to NJ about teh same as COnrail days, same traffic as ever is rolling over the D&H (except for 2 trains a day that used to run via the Tier)- i.e., not new traffic, the same old stuff. IF NS were to get Guilford, which they won't, they'd run coal and intermodal and everything east of N. Chelmsford would be relegated to "oh yeah, we do still own that don't we... darn it"- or they'd lease the whole east end to anotehr operator as they've already doen with every line that don't pretty much HAVE to run trains on) when every train will be the same boring consist in the same paint scheme that you can see at eveyr other location from Albany to Atlanta.

Of course CSX is worse, but since they've already got the B&A they'd have no reason to want Guilford.

cpf354 wrote:All this doesn't address the most important piece of speculation as to WHY the NS would even want Pan Am in the first place. Other than coal and intermodal, they would seem to have no stake in it at all. I would only speculate on them buying the railroad if and when they make an outright purchase of the D&H from CP. Unless they do that, Pan Am is isolated from their system.
Take a look at the NS system map and then see how tiny Pan Am is next to it. Why would they pay Pan Am's price (rumoured at around 450 million) for an appendage?

NS would want PAR because its service area includes the Boston market which is one of the largest metropolitan areas on the East Coast. There's a lot of room for growth in both Intermodal and Auto business on the old B&M and NS swings a pretty big stick in both of those markets. The old B&M also has two coal plants, a large Cargill Flour mill and access to the Fuel terminals North of Boston which could someday see large Ethanol Rail facilities.

On the MEC side, with better service and pricing due to single line running, NS could easily increase the marketshare from all the big paper mills and they could likely do a lot more business with the MMA, which pretty much stopped routing overhead business over PAR/ST years ago. They would also likely be able to do a lot more with the Irvings out of the Maritimes with single line service all the way to FL.

NS already has a a haulage over the CPRS to MCV and in addition I believe they actually have some type of trackage rights that they've never exercised. Bottom line is that with better service/pricing, capital spending and such, the NS could probably turn the B&M from a 6-8 through train a day operation into something more along the lines of the B&A with 18-20 movements per day.

l008com wrote:So there's always NS-G buyout rumors floating about. And as railfans we're always hoping that its true, because we're hoping that it would mean more trains.

I dont live in Guilford land anymore..but I used to...
as railfans, you should hope there is NOT a NS takeover!
because although it might mean more trains, it would also mean more REALLY BORING trains!

from a railfan perspective, Guilford is facinating! endlessly interesting..
NS is mind numbingly dull..nothing but dismal black GE widecabs..*yawn*.

Guilford and Susquehanna are both always in danger of disappearing and being absorbed by the larger systems..from my personal railfan perspective, if either happened it would be a tragedy..
sure, railroads are a business, and decisions like that get made because of money..its just life...
but railfans shouldnt wish for Guilford to go away!
you will regret it if it does..you can find NS blandness anywhere..Guilford is unique.

Scot

"NS could easily increase the marketshare from all the big paper mills and they could likely do a lot more business with the MMA, which pretty much stopped routing overhead business over PAR/ST years ago. "

Except a lot of those big paper mills are shutting down or have reduced their production levels. There just isn't as much traffic moving to and from the mills as there used to be. Hopefully it will get better, but it's a matter of global economics, better rail service would be about the smallest issue there.

As for MMA, now more than ever before the old B&A has a vested interest in routing as much inbound and outbound traffic as possible over the old CP (i.e., MMA's own line). Unless MMA were to decide to shut down everything west of Brownville Jct., they'd be shooting themsleves in the foot by interchanging at NMJ.

"the NS could probably turn the B&M from a 6-8 through train a day operation into something more along the lines of the B&A with 18-20 movements per day."

This sounds like the propaganda on NS's website when they were vying for approval to buy Conrail. As Imnetioned previously, other than the PRR and a couple of associated lines, all the talk about more traffic was just talk, and in fact many of the lines that NS touted as "vital" in 1999 were leased out or on the block within 5 years of the COnrail purchase.

Be careful what you wish for!