electricron wrote:$1.45 Billion will be spent to upgrade Chicago to St. Louis service to 110 mph.
From http://watchdog.org/97830/quick-math-fo ... l-project/
... ridership between Chicago and St. Louis is up 224 percent since 2006. Illinois saw a 74 percent jump in riders between 2006 and 2007, when Amtrak increased traffic [sic] from two to five trains. ... another 41 percent in 2008. [With further increases every year since. WW]
Much of the success ... has nothing to do with having faster trains, that success is a derived mostly from running more trains.
The likelihood the 37 miles between Joilet to Chicago and the 30 miles between Alton to St. Louis will be upgraded to 110 mph is very small....
What will be interesting to see after 2016 is whether spending $1.45 Billion to improve the tracks for faster train speeds will create as much or more ridership as increasing the number of train did back in 2006? I certainly hope so, or IDOT and the FRA spent way too much money upgrading the tracks.
C'mon. The $1.5 billion being spent so far buys not just
higher speeds, but
greater capacity. No way to add capacity
without spending the money. No way the UP was gonna
find slots for even more passenger trains on this busy route.
So, in the name of "high-speed" trains, many miles of siding
have been installed and many miles are being double-tracked,
signals and communications are being upgraded, grade crossings
ameliorated. New bi-level cars with 30% more capacity are
on order, with an order due (or rather overdue) for the
necessary quick-accelerating Next Gen diesel locomotives.
Almost all of that work and spending would have been necessary
to double the route's capacity, nevermind doubling its speed.
So we're getting a twofer for our tax/stimulus dollars.
And of course, Amtrak had no spare coaches or engines
anywhere in its system, so how could it have added even
one more run to the existing timetable?
So I'm with you that increased frequency is the overlooked
feature of better train service, while higher speed gets
all the glory. But that's probably just a characteristic of
the politician/media, good-hair brain type, and we'll
just have to live with it.
Meanwhile, expect further improvements, despite the author's
whiny pessimism. The laggard segments don't have to be
upgraded to 110 mph, as the author sneakily suggests. Simply
doubling or tripling the current time in slow sections will help
average speeds very nicely.
The Springfield slowdown is being resolved with the choice
of a preferred route thru the state's capital city, for better
or worse.
A new bridge over the Mississippi at St Louis will not be
cheap, but it will save time, as will other upgrades south
of Alton.
The stretch north from Joliet into Union Station will not be
cheap either. Fixing Union Station will not be cheap. But
these improvements will come, some as an integral part
of CREATE, and because Union Station would have to be
upgraded even if Amtrak quit running trains to St Louis.
Now I have to concede that the author of this hit piece has
already won his fake argument. When the new schedules
go into effect, the new trains will have 30% more seats,
so expect roughly a 30% increase in the passenger counts.
Not that 30% of last year's 600,000 is chopped liver, it's
180,000 pax at for sure higher fares. But at least at first,
the faster route will not see added frequencies. So it's
NOT gonna give the percentage increases of 2007 and 2008.
It's not.
So the article's author, apparently an acolyte of rail-hater
Randall O'Toole, is guaranteed to win the bet he's here
made with himself. Smart cookie.
But the fake-bake cookie will crumble the minute Amtrak
gets enuff new equipment to add another frequency or two.
Indeed, yet another frequency or two will be possible without
any more equipment when the trip gets fast enuff to allow
a train to turn and make an "extra" run. Not sure we'll get
a short-enuff trip time out of this first $1.5 billion investment,
but it will come.
(As the author reports, to max out the Illinois project could
cost another $3 billion over some years ahead. But the use
of equipment in Illinois could be favorably affected by
the on-going improvements on Michigan's
Wolverine line.)
That development, extra turns allowing more productive use
of expensive equipment, will drive down the ratio of costs
to expenses, and yield a better operating return.
Those gains will help again to justify this simple $1.5 billion
investment in better passenger rail that continues to disturb
those who hate passenger rail
and every politician who favors it --
or is that the other way around[/i]?