CSX Acquisition of Pan Am Railways

Any word if Fortress is one of them?

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The investment companies have not been name dropped, at least anywhere that I've been poking around.

And your understanding is that Watco is bidding on the entire system? Remarkable if true ... Not impossible just remarkable ...

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And the word in Billerica is narrowed down to two buyers. So...At this point it's all hearsay until the press release.

https://youtu.be/r86BJkLZp9w

"Come on Topper"

What kind of chance do the "Old Maine hands" around here have of seeing a competitive routing from the Albany area (M'ville; Ro'dam) to Central Maine and even to Saint John with FRA Class 3, or better trackage, if Pan Am (renamed for sure) falls into the hands of a Short Line operator whose, away from KCT, idea of track is FRA 2?

Anyone?

No thanks. Again - NS would not be a very good custodian of the system as they stand. They are going through serious PSR pains. If a Class I is going to purchase it, you want one that already has gone through that and come out the other side. CN and CP have both done so and have tossed aside portions of the PSR system that do not work and are going back after customers in a huge way. NS is not doing that (yet) as their operations are contracting and in flux. The results may be no better than PAR.

newpylong wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:49 pm And the word in Billerica is narrowed down to two buyers. So...At this point it's all hearsay until the press release.

The 6 buyers in the running was as of 8/12. It could have easily been furthur narrowed down by now. Just wasn't sure it was just a rumor at the time.

Gilbert B Norman wrote:"Come on Topper"

I'm still pulling for "Maple Mystery" ... but ... More than anything I'm hoping for a Class I.



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Mr. Newpy, let us not lose sight that I wholly respect your thoughts - especially from one who has been "on the ground" up that way.

Yes, it's true that if Operating Ratio has now become the "Gospel according to St. Hunter", NS is not measuring up too well against the other six Class I's (including BNSF, that has not gone out of its way to adopt PSR). But, even if intense internecine wars are raging inside that impressive Atlanta HQ (I've walked by it; quite near Arts Center), they "ain't dumb" within those walls.

Now who knows to what extent Saint John seeks to become a "World Class" port (I've noted the tidal conditions there, but perhaps I've overstated their potential impact) or simply JD Irving's "private cove". If the former, then I would think the port's authority would be seeking a reliable direct rail connections to markets in the Midwest or beyond - maybe even handling Beetles, Bennies, and Bimmers to those markets.

But your posts have certainly suggested that the PAS is hardly an FRA Class 4 road, and that there are restrictions on what can be handled through Hoosac. Too many years of Eddie Burkhardt certainly means the SOO/CP-M "could use a little brushing up". You know better than I if the two Irving Short Lines are only what is needed to move Irving's traffic.

Mr. O'Keefe, tell me I'm mistaken, but the two CN routings via Moncton and Saint Basile (Edmundston) both appear circuitous, but I guess they could offer one road service to the Midwest as well.

I'm just trying set forth possible reasons for NS to be interested. I have no skin in the game whatever (no longer Long NSC).

How much sway do the hedge fund people holding stock have over the management at NS? It seems that they have pretty much taken a majority of the shares. Some one correct me if I'm wrong on this. Would they allow the company to spend 250 mil or more to buy out Pan Am entirely? Seems that they may want that money to buy back shares to line their own pockets with increased stock value rather that do something stupid like trying to grow the company's business.

Hope I'm wrong on this.

I've been mostly a lurker here, and we've already done a poll. Could we do another on who we think will get Pan Am? CN, NS, G&W, WATCO, Fortress, someone else?

Sure, here you go:

https://linkto.run/p/4RGOTJP3

Gilbert B Norman wrote:Mr. O'Keefe, tell me I'm mistaken, but the two CN routings via Moncton and Saint Basile (Edmundston) both appear circuitous, but I guess they could offer one road service to the Midwest as well.

Mr. Norman,

You actually helped clarify (at least to me) CN's potential thinking here ...

If Saint John really is the "big prize" ... Then buying Pan Am is one way (albeit a very expensive one) to get to Saint John from certain parts of the U.S. I would have to check but at the very least they can get to Mattawamkeag and for all I know the Maine Central still has rights all the way to Saint John (or at least to CN's interchange point in Moncton).

Perhaps this is a counter-move to CP's intentions in the area. It all seems completely absurd. More "robber baron" than "Gospel of EHH".

With regards to interchange it seems clear enough for now that routings can occur via SLR and be almost invisible on the way billing due to existing interchange arrangements at Danville Junction. If true this would mean CN gets access to the Atlantic at Saint John, Portland and Boston. CP got Saint John and Searsport. I would say CN ends up in the stronger position of the two.

Pretty interesting situation (to say the least).

Again, none of it seems to matter in terms of economics ... But ... I'm not entirely sure that economics are what is at stake here. Developing future growth opportunities or stealing market share are strategic moves that may or may not have a strong basis in dollar terms.

Norfolk Southern really does seem to have something to loose here. Pan Am has been a "good enough" feeder for it's Mechanicsville service. Two Canadian Class Is in Maine could potentially siphon traffic away from Boston that NS previously considered captive.





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CN already has direct access to Saint John so not sure why they would want to route traffic over Pan Am which involves the SLR and NBSR, probably isn't any shorter than their route via Moncton, has slower speeds and involves a reversing move at Danville Jct.

It makes no sense to me either but that seems to be what they're doing. Would be nice to do a mileage comparison of the routing from Montreal via SLR vs. CN's current route ...

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