CSX Acquisition of Pan Am Railways

The generous taxpayers of the state of NY put in around 20 percent of the bridge costs.

I think shared assets east of Ayer is a very, very low probability outcome

Assuming the deal goes through, it's CSX East of Ayer, no joint operation.

roberttosh wrote:Assuming the deal goes through, it's CSX East of Ayer, no joint operation.

CSX can get this by the board without having to give joint access to the NS east of Ayer with only a couple of minor concessions. So that is what it will be. And while NYS&W running the PAS *should* make sense to NS and CSX, it is going to be G&W.

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:15 am I guess so long as the boys and girls around Suez keep their cap pistols away from each other, the maritime companies could consider Asia-Canal-Atlantic Port routings feasible and the lesser of evils than having your vessel anchored outside a West Coast port awaiting a berth for stevidorage. The ports "potentially served" by the Maine Central, Chessie sees ready for development - and she wants her "catnip" more than Topper wanted his oats.

They're not going through Suez; they're going through Panama. The new locks that opened in 2016 can handle substantially larger ships that the old Panamax standard. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_Ca ... on_project

I really don't believe that port business is very high (if at all) on CSX's wish list in terms of business development with the Pan Am acquisition, certainly nowhere near to the extent that it was with CP's acquisition of CMQ. Two totally different franchises.

Then what is Chessie's target, Mr. Tosh? She's going to have to forego a lot of Fancy Feast to have even a Class 3 MEC! (wasn't there a report here that No. Me, Jct - 'Keag is likely only Class 1?).

How much more Spring Water is there to haul for Coke?

Diverting paper mill traffic from the highway to rail?

Enquiring mind wants to know.

Have you not been following this thread? To start with, they gain access (direct and/or via haulage) to 8 very large pulp and paper mills, the biggest Oil refinery in Canada, multiple large LPG facilities, multiple lumber/wallboard producers, several feed mills, a large AB brewery, multiple cement terminals, etc. There's also numerous smaller customers that deal with everything from Steel and scrap metal to Plastics, pulpboard, food products and chemicals. I would also imagine that there's plenty of industrial development to be had in areas like Ethanol, Bio-Diesel, Waste, etc, not to mention diversion from truck to rail. That's what is driving this deal, not the port of Portland.

Mr. Tosh, I wish to thank you for providing the most concise summary of the business that is there in Maine (New Hampshire?) for which rail is a viable mode, I have seen in this discussion.

But if that business simply represents what Timmy has, and so long as he cannibalizes his property, he somehow breaks even - and now he wants out because there is nothing left to eat, I'm at a loss to know why any Class I wants in?

In short, considering the Pan Am branding rights are not part of the sale, it would seem counterproductive for Chessie to get out some sprayguns, obliterate any "Blue Meatballs" and otherwise carry on with business as usual.

You say, and I have no evidence with which to refute, maritime business is not what Chssie is after. But I ask, how many other businesses that need rail transportation can she convince to set up shop in Maine?

Rest assured the railroad is making plenty of money and there is still "plenty left to eat" for the Chessie cat. If there is one good department at Pan Am it is marketing and they've done a fine job filling in where the traditional business tapered off. She will be able to have a bigger meal with improved physical and operational efficiencies and a single line haul.

I don't think their plan relies upon attracting new customers as much as simply increasing marketshare with established customers. Single line pricing and service will allow them to convert truck to rail as well as CP/CN Irving roads business to CSX/Pan Am. In addition, there are still plenty of opportunities for them to attract new businesses, think energy/petroleum, waste/recyclables, ice melt products, lumber reloads, construction materials, food/grocery products and intermodal to name a few.

Keep in mind, CSX already serves the ports of NY/NJ, Philly/Camden, Baltimore, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savanah, Jax, Tampa, Mobile and New Orleans. Take a look at those operations on google maps and ask yourself how you think CSX is going to get excited about the prospects of serving the ports of Portland and Saint John, let alone spend all those hundreds of millions to gain access to them.

Portland and Saint John are just two more points that CSX can put on their map. I don't think that CSX bought Pan Am because of those ports, but it's certinly a nice bonus.

roberttosh wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:02 pm Keep in mind, CSX already serves the ports of NY/NJ, Philly/Camden, Baltimore, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savanah, Jax, Tampa, Mobile and New Orleans. Take a look at those operations on google maps and ask yourself how you think CSX is going to get excited about the prospects of serving the ports of Portland and Saint John, let alone spend all those hundreds of millions to gain access to them.

Sure, you just need to look at the distance to and congestion at the most northern ports you mentioned and it will start to click. They aren't going to be serving Saint John directly but they will happily help grow that business by feeding it to their other existing lanes. But it isn't only St J traffic it is all of the Irving traffic. There's no need for us to ask ourselves, CSX has already said it's one major reason they are going after PAR.

Portland isn't really worth talking about.

They certainly aren't going to look a gift horse in the mouth, but if you look at CSX's network and traffic flows, it's pretty obvious that neither facility is going to loom large in their import/export growth strategy plans. Totally agree that the Saint John complex is a very big piece of the puzzle, but with a lot more emphasis on local industry as opposed to the port.

FWIW Some Port TEU factoids:

* Port of NY & NJ for 2020: handled ~7.6M TEUs (loaded & empty/import & export) with 705,895 "rail lifts" for 2 class 1 RRs, NS and CSX.
* Port Saint John handled 79,179 TEUs in 2020 and, with a 7 yr expansion plan underway, that will expand to 330,000 TEUs capacity
* Port of Portland, ME handled 0 export TEUs and 22,325 TEUs in 2018 and Eimskip said that TEUs should have hit 30,000 or so in 2019.

So, based on PofNY/NJ data, if rail lifts = ~10% of TEUs then Port of Saint John could grow by 2028 to 33,000 annual rail lifts or 90 rail lifts (ie, containers) per day or 45 double stack well cars/day (or a single 2 mile long stack train every 3 days). That's not a lot of traffic for 1 RR let alone 2 if CSX somehow finagles its way into the mix.

Here's a link to a spreadsheet detailing US port traffic for the period 2000-2017 showing the difference in TEU traffic for CSX-served ports NY/Norfolk/Savannah/Charleston/Jax/Boston v. Portland ME (note that Boston, currently servable by CSX via dray from Worcester, blows the doors off Portland ME in TEU volume):
https://www.maritime.dot.gov/data-repor ... 80%93-2017