CSX Acquisition of Pan Am Railways

bsweep wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:43 pm Mr. Norman - I could be wrong, but I think currently CP double stack trains already travel CSX via Buffalo. I guess that could change via the tunnel and NS? It’s also interesting you brought up Kansas City. I was considering each carriers “route map” so to speak and CSX and CP really don’t have many competitive lanes, even now. Chicago and Detroit? Even in the Midwest CSX hits Saint Louis and CP has Kansas City.

Mr. Sweep, looking at the CP System Map, it shows haulage rights from Buffalo to Chicago over CSX (NYC to Greenwich OH B&O). Therefore CP could handle traffic over the TH&B to the NYC. The map further shows same Windsor Tunnel then NS (WABASH to Butler IN, NYC) to Chicago. From there they have their own rails (well, SOO)Harbor Belt to "my" MILW at NORPAUL thence to Kansas City.

All told, CP is well positioned to handle traffic from Keag ME to Kansas City. I don't think they "need skin in the game" between "claws" and "hoofs" over Pan Am.

bsweep wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:27 pm An interesting point newpy aluded to - Irving’s railroads only connect because of CP trackage rights. I’m guessing those rights have an expiration - and wouldn’t be surprised if it coincided with the MNR lease expiration. Irving will likely want to play nice with CP.

Interesting but wrong. CP does not have trackage rights over EMRY/NBSR. They have haulage rights, which is a contractual agreement subject to cancellation by either party. So long as it's mutually beneficial, it'll probably stay in place. And "Irving" as a shipper can also connect with CN and, soon, CSX. Regarding CP holding the cards with MNR, not so much. An STB-granted trackage rights exemption from 2011 allows MNR to connect to the mothership at Brownville Jct. That agreement will remain active unless Irving kills it, or CP can successfully petition the STB to kill it (pretty unlikely) in either case). I would imagine there's an assignment clause in the agreement that would pass the rights to a successor road should MDOT change designated operators. (The original agreement between MNR and MMA may even tie in MDOT as a party, as they were involved in the transaction and they have a vested interest in assuring continuity of access to their owned trackage from multiple carriers.)

Every time I hear about "SEARSPORT THIS" and "SEARSPORT THAT" I have to smile and laugh.
Its 110 miles from a moderate consumer market in Portland and about 210 miles from a major metropolitan area in Boston and Eastern MA.

If SEARSPORT was such a Crown Jewel and worth investing in, it would have already happened in the last 30+ years.
It hasn't been.
It Ain't now.
And It Won't Be.

I live in the Columbia River Gorge, and watch the huge unit trains of Potash that CP sends to the northwest ports for export and have to believe that it is at least possible that something similar is afoot in Searsport. Ocean shipping routes seem to be changing for whatever reasons, and the fact that CP (and now maybe CSX) are investing in a connection to the Maine ports has to mean something

PBMcGinnis wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:28 am If SEARSPORT was such a Crown Jewel and worth investing in, it would have already happened in the last 30+ years.
It hasn't been.It Ain't now.And It Won't Be.

Airports that were back woods dust fields 30 years ago are now some carrier's main hubs.

The landscape has changed drastically, specifically with ports in the past 30 years, so I don't believe this statement really has much merit. Time will tell what they do with it, but they are a Transcontinental Class 1 and there is their deep water East Coast access.

newpylong wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:07 am Airports that were back woods dust fields 30 years ago are now some carrier's main hubs.

Huh. I've been in the airline industry for 35 years and can't think of a single dust field hub, considering there have only been maybe five to ten commercial airports built during that timeframe...

PBMcGinnis wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:28 am If SEARSPORT was such a Crown Jewel and worth investing in, it would have already happened in the last 30+ years.It hasn't been. It Ain't now. And It Won't Be.

I certainly respect your opinion. On the other hand, the Canadian Pacific Railway has been flooding social media with Searsport advertisements pretty much nonstop for the past six months. That's remarkable in more ways than one. Maybe nothing will come of it, but clearly they're trying. And the difference now, compared to the past 30 years, is that it's the Canadian Pacific Railway and not some poverty stricken shortline.

eolesen wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:14 am Huh. I've been in the airline industry for 35 years and can't think of a single dust field hub, considering there have only been maybe five to ten commercial airports built during that timeframe...

So is my family, but it was exaggeration on my part to make a point. You should know several irrelevant airports in the region have grown substantially to alleviate congestion (and a changing industry such as the entrance of Jet Blue, SouthWest, etc) at the major Northeast hubs : JFK/LaGuardia/Newark and Logan. Those that come to mind - Albany International, Bradley International, Manchester-Boston Regional, and just in the past few years - Worcester Regional.

Slightly off topic - but also in the airline industry Mr. Olesen- you could argue DEN was a bunch of weeds and dust within the last 30 years, LOL but your point is well taken. That said, the point that air traffic flows have changed is also appropriate. PIT, STL, and MEM are passenger ghost towns and places like CVG have gained life as cargo growth via Amazon is exponential. It’s not impossible to think that the purchases of Maine roads is part of a broader shift in port flows (Saint John, Halifax) over places like New York and New Jersey. It’s at least a possible bet hedge for CSX.

Looking at aerials of Saint John, I just can't see any way where they will ever have the room to become a true container hub, even if they get the adjacent scrap company to move. It really is just a postage stamp site compared to any of the other big East Coast ports and have a hard time believing they will ever become much more than niche/small player in this market.

roberttosh wrote:have a hard time believing they will ever become much more than niche/small player in this market.

I go back and forth to thinking this is possibly Prince Rupert of the East (similar postage stamp size port) or that CSX just wants exclusivity to Maine mills and lumber and block NS and that north of Rigby could be short lined off similar to RCPE went after the DME purchase.

roberttosh wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:58 am Looking at aerials of Saint John, I just can't see any way where they will ever have the room to become a true container hub, even if they get the adjacent scrap company to move. It really is just a postage stamp site compared to any of the other big East Coast ports and have a hard time believing they will ever become much more than niche/small player in this market.

I've always wondered if St. John isn't limited as a port to some extend by the almost unbelievable range of the tides. There's a 28 foot difference between mean high- and low-water in St. John Harbor. A channel with enough water to float a Panamax container ship at high water would struggle to float a lobster boat at low tide. Other parts of the Bay of Fundy are even worse-- the average tidal range on the whole bay tops 50 feet. And you can imagine what the implication of that amount of water flowing into and out of the bay 2x/day has for the currents and, therefore, the navigation.

I guess it’s a good thing neither of you work in maritime logistics or port operations. Remember, containers can be stacked.... arm chair quarter backing via Google maps multimillion investments and commitments from multiple logistics parties isn’t how the world works. Perhaps check out Prince Rupert, you’ll notice that it’s also small by acreage by can handle 1M TEU per annum... the “secret” is the fluidity of the rail network and reducing on dock dwell. Also remember when 90% or the containers will be railed, you have greater fluidity of the terminal since you aren’t waiting on truckers to get containers to the local markets. If the tidal range was a concern they wouldn’t have put 4 ships through there this summer and committed to one steamship line (CP says they are chasing a second by end of 2021)

Regarding navigation in bay of fundy, track the shipping into SJ area online. There are routinely—meaning every day—multiple 900 foot oil tankers waiting to offload to the Irving refinery.

This is my working theory about why CSX wants to buy Pan Am:

If you want to grow your railroad, having access to more ports is a good start. They can look at the ports they already serve. But New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Baltimore are either at or very close to capacity. There is very little room to expand there due to a host of reasons. The Southern ports like Charleston and Savannah have been undergoing expansion, but that might not be enough to satisfy Chessie’s wants. Better look elsewhere, which means looking to New England. Portland, Searsport (potentially), Saint John…

If you want to grow your railroad, another really good way of doing that is to buy another with a large traffic base, which Pan Am has. Maine paper traffic, containers full of Poland Spring water, other bulk and merchandise traffic. Intermodal is of course another big possibility.

Shuting Norfolk Southern out of New England is of course a benefit, but I don’t think it’s the main reason why CSX is buying Pan Am.

This is going to be really fun to see how this plays out. In the time short i've been following the railroad industry, this is the first "major" acquisition i've been around to follow. I was too young to remeber the CP-DM&E/IC&E merger, (My only fuzzy memory of that one being seeing a pair of CP and DM&E engines on CRSA in North Jeresy.) and wasn't interested at the time of the CP/NS debacle. Can't wait to see what happens.