Brightline (All Aboard Florida) Orlando - Miami FL FEC fka Virgin Rail

Gilbert B Norman wrote:The big question is to what extent the FECI real estate holdings, such as Miami Central, benefit from AAF. In short, will Miami Central have whatever occupancy level the landlords deem sufficient with or without AAF. Will the Henry Flagler model of build the railroad and the people will come or the Field of Dreams model of if we will build it, they will come.

Now what will be interesting (off the rails) will be if Miami Central will revitalize the Overtown community. Such is to the immediate West of Miami Central and it is "not recommended" to be on the streets after dark. AAF has taken a step in that direction by locating their offices within that community. Will respectable law firms locate there or will the Bail Bondsmen displaced by Miami Central simply locate there along with the lawyers that feed them? The "flip side" is will Overtown scare potential tenants - particularly residential tenants - away?

Isn't the reality that the prime Miami Central site was going to languish under the shadow of Overtown--appreciating not much and producing no lease income--unless Fortress could find a way to attract new people to the site? With just a freight line, a brand new Federal Courthouse attracted nothing--a few bailbondsmen, and in-and-out car traffic from lawyers based elsewhere.

What attracts "nice" people to live and work in a place? Easy access to other nice people who either commute in, live there, or work there--and amenities like easy transportation feed all that. Seems to me that Fortress deemed developing the Miami Central site too risky if all it had was a freight line cutting through (giving a "wrong side of the tracks" feel) and that a passenger line was just the ticket to both increase commuting ease, and to justify some monumental architecture to redefine the neighborhood's look (that happened to be a train station). Boston's seen something like in New Balance paying for both a commuter rail station and the Warrior Arena, a practice-only venue.

If you're Fortress, and you need a monumental building to plausibly redefine the neighborhood before you commit to a lot of new space, a passenger terminal makes sense. I don't think it fair to say Fortress would have built a station district "with or without AAF"...isn't it plain that they only built it WITH AAF and not without?

Mr. Arlington, on one of "classical music aficionado" journeys to Miami, I ventured into Overtown without incident as far as NW 2nd Ave where a marathon was being run.

This past year looking at the Miami Central construction, a tow truck driver is blowing his horn at me "you'd better stay.out of there; you'll get shot in broad daylight. It.happened just last week". Actually, I knew of Overtown, and had no intention of going anywhere West of Miami Central.

The FEC line to the Port follows 6th St. NE.

So you have just described the neighborhood "without" a train station--a vibe that ACTUALLY made Flagler parcels unbuildable (parking lots), even after the Courthouse went in. How can you possibly say, as you have, that Fortress/Flagler had the power to build & lease "with or without" AAF?? Fortress is flat out telling you "only WITH" AAF did it make sense to build. Are you aware of some other builder who'd have developed it sans AAF that Fortress should have sold to? Had Fortress judged that they could fill buildings in Overtown's shadow (adjoining "Historic Overtown" ) just by building them, clearly that'd have been the better investment.

To me, the foregoing proves Fortress' judgment that it needed something to redefine the neighborhoods around their languishing Flagler-era parcels and not even a shiny US Courthouse had been enough to re-make the place. Fortress needed something monumental--it could have been anything, so long as it was plausible as a gentrifying force--that it happened to be a passenger rail station is why we're talking about it here. But the passenger train is clearly the WITH that redevelopment needed, and that without AAF it'd all still basically be unbuildable.

From the Palm Beach Post, here is a "human.interest" article:

http://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/bre ... wxPUNFtoN/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Fair Use:

...For now, the train ride is enough. Brightline appears to be proving, at least for now, that it’s the journey, not the destination that counts.

And that’s the way it was for a lot of people on this, the first long weekend of train service for Brightline, a train that is expected to be a link between South Florida’s three big coastal cities and Orlando, but for now is just a gleaming new train service with just two stops

Mr. Arlington, while I do not agree, I hold with complete respect your views that the Flagler model of "build the railroad and get them to come" prevails here. The FEC was built some 125 years ago (and for that matter, the Seaboard was not completed to Miami until the 1920's) and history has shown that to be the case. Without the FEC, I will hold Florida much South of St Augustine would likely not been developed until after WWII, when air transport highway interests were developed.

I do not agree simply because rail travel simply represents a "niche" today. Even if the 95 is clogged (know so first hand) and the demand priced "Lexus Lanes" can run a good $10 (just because I have a Lexus does not mean I'm going to use 'em), it's still what the people know and there will be much reverse social engineering to have AAF impact the occupancy - especially the residential occupancy - of Miami Central as well as any other "mixed use" properties FECI owns within a walk of the WP and FtL stations.

At least they are building into a strong economy. This all would have been impossible in 2009.

I should add a "Thank You" to Mr. Norman for the comprehensive response. I will reply in due course. Lots to think about there.

With regards to longevity, let's look at a few other private passenger operations for perspective:

1. Original Auto Train - went under, but gladly picked up by Amtrak and runs operating profit. They went under after a 1-2 punch of overexpansion and accidents. Had the accidents happened without the overexpansion, would it have gone under? Had someone other than a buff run the place, would it have gone under? There's a good chance you'd see that outfit operating today were it not for a perfect storm.

2. Iowa Pacific Indianapolis Service - Another situation of a bad route, bad management (Ellis is a buff for sure and buffs don't usually make good decisions), bad contract... But picked right back up by Indiana and Amtrak.

3. Venango River / South Shore - more super-buffs with pie-in-the-sky dreams of running regular passenger service getting crosswise with the subsidizing agency, overextending (the St. Louis route), trying to run dinner trains, trying to run hourly trains to South Bend... After bankruptcy it was bought by the state and they've been reinvesting for 27 years now.

The only case of a completely dropped passenger train in the last 30 years under private operation was the Texas-Mexican Railroad's Corpus-Laredo train. It's not clear what the financials were, but what is clear is that TFM and KCS wanted nothing to do with that string of old commuter cars running around South Texas at the consolidation.

Virtually every private passenger operator has been buffs making bad deals. They've either had bad routes or overextended.

Compare that with AAF. Fortress isn't the type of company to hire buffs to make decisions based on emotion. It's a great route. They're moving slowly and not trying to do something nuts like a dinner train. I think this operation has a much greater chance of success than any recent operations. Certainly it's not a "Disney ride" in the context of riding for fun. If that were, you'd see half of Iowa Pacific's fire sale rolling stock running between gravel parking lots with pine lumber low platforms, dinner trains, polar expresses, etc... any marketing gimmick to get tourists, parents, and families. That's clearly not the message here.

The one common thread here is buffs. There are no buffs at Brightline. There is plenty of track space. There is a business case, as the top guys at Fortress would likely lose their job if this goes south. You can't just sell off 25 trains cars for 50c on the dollar and close up, there are untold millions in ROW improvements, stations, legal costs.

To add to Tadman's comment. AAF/FECI/Fortress are in this project for the long haul. They can afford years of waiting for the buildout. Of course not forever, but they are in a position to be able to let the TOD and marketing catchup to where they need to be to at least breakeven on fare revenue. AAF is broken into operations and stations LLC's from a legal standpoint. Not sure how much mixing of revenue between the two LLCs is to be expected.

Also, Wes Edens (cofounder of Fortress) appears to be 100% behind AAF and expanding the concept to other corridors. FECI/AAF is not just a bunch of rogue managers that came up with an idea and then were given seed money by Fortress with the understanding to make lots of money as soon as possible! There may not be railbuffs in management, but I can say from talking with some of them, that they definitely believe in the concept and in passenger rail.

I will withhold judgement until after Orlando to Miami has been running for at least several years to say whether it has been successful or not.

Like some on here I had questions as to why they would open just between West Palm and Fort Lauderdale for a few months. After riding Brightline on both Saturday and again on Monday I see where this start makes a lot of sense. It is giving them an opportunity to fine tune the hard work that they accomplished before this historic period, it demonstrates to the folks who came out for a trip this past weekend and through this period just how comfortable, fast, smooth, economical and great a train ride can be to Orlando. There were a lot of younger couples with children riding this train and I am very sure that they represent potential customers when this train goes to Orlando. They gave out free and discounted rides for a good purpose, advance advertising. I am sure that it was very effective and will continue to be very effective. I rode Saturday with some folks from Stuart which is the hotbed of opposition to this train and they were very impressed with their experience. It is NO Disney ride, that's for sure.
They haven't spent all of the money that they already have and will just for a Disney ride, there is a real purpose here. Good things are going to come of this, it might take a little time but I am very, very encouraged after two days riding this train.
Noel Weaver

That bears out the experience of a number of properties in various places: start out by operating what you have, and let people experience it firsthand--it smooths the road ahead. (Dallas light rail is one of the better-known examples. After the first line was up and running, NIMBYs from other parts of the area wanted to know "when are we going to get our line?" The overall construction target dates were speeded up as a result--the money was found somehow.) It may be interesting to see whether there appears to be any shifting of attitude in those areas that have been fighting this.

Regrettably, I must note the Palm Beach Post reports that there has been a second fatal Grade X-ing incident. This incident occurred at Boynton Beach which is about ten miles South of W-Palm.

Brightline has hit a person walking and a person on a bike-- and both in Boynton Beach-- but so far no people in cars. I wonder if they got the message out to motorists but did not get out in regular media, or is Boynton.
Beach a particular laggard?

No idea but it's worth noting that both of these incidents involved people who deliberately went around the gates. I'm sure Florida's Operation Lifesaver could do more but there really isn't a lot you can do in terms of crossing improvements when it comes to pedestrians who ignore the signals.

Hardly saying this is about to happen, and I'd like for it not to as I'm "coming down" in a little more than a week and am considering taking a joyride Jan 28, somebody is going to say "shut 'er down" until such time that AAF can provide meaningful transportation beyond Disneyland joyrides. For at the moment with these two fatalities, both occurring within Palm Beach County that has yet to enact "QZ", the "public nuisance" (that is a legal term lest we forget) could well be heard.

Some background on FEC Crossings: MyPalmBeachPost.com

Interesting video.

What happens when a train strikes a pedestrian?
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Jim Kovalsky, a Brightline supporter and rail enthusiast who was on the train Friday when it struck Lavell, said it is wrong to blame Brightline and other rail operators when their trains hit people on the tracks.

“If you are driving your car and you run a red light and then you are killed in a broad-side collision, do you blame the car that hit you?” Kovalsky said. “There is a huge double standard whenever anybody gets hit by the train that it is the train’s fault. You have to be in its way. If you are doing that, either you are trespassing on the track or you are going around the warning signal trying to keep you safe.”

In advance of Brightline’s launch, Levine said he trained 30 of the company’s employees and other volunteers to help raise awareness about the dangers of going around rail crossing gates and walking along the tracks. Those volunteers are called on to give presentations about rail safety to community groups, including young children, Levine said.

Safety upgrades made along Brightline’s route on the Florida East Coast Railway tracks also provide a constant warning time for pedestrians and motorists in advance of a train’s arrival. Whether its a fast-moving Brightline train or a slower freight locomotive, the amount of time from when the crossing gates go down to the train’s arrival at the intersection is always the same.
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