Jehochman wrote:Why not just extend one or more shuttles north to Greenfield, Brattleboro or WRJ? Stick a cafe on there if there's one lying around. Once NHHS comes online, all of the shuttles could be repurposed this way. Crossing the platform in New Haven for the connection is no big deal, and this plan doesn't require any slots on the shoreline.
Operationally, that's what CT-MA "commuter" service will look like, but the operator is unlikely to be "Amtrak NHHS Shuttle" due to costs.
Amtrak is a great package if you need any 3 of these 4 things:
1) NEC Access
2) Equipment
3) Crews
4) Maintenance
And so Virginia (needing all 4), Maine (needing all but #1), Vermont (needing all 4), and North Carolina (needing all but #2) are locked-in as happy customers, who (mostly because of NEC revenue) can afford to overlook Amtrak's higher costs (in a way that Indiana can't/isn't/won't).
It's Amtrak's ROW in CT, yes, but really, if Vermont wants service "from" Connecticut (or any point south) that turns at WRJ, they're going to be mostly dealing with MA and CT, not Amtrak.
Connecticut, being in control of its stretch of NEC, and a savvy participant in 2 commuter schemes (Metro North and Shore Line), has an alternative to Amtrak for all 4, and Massachusetts has 3 out of the 4 (and experience outsourcing and in-sourcing them), and is now the owner of everything from Springfield to Greenfield. The only card Amtrak holds is its ownership of NHV-SPG...not nothing, but probably not enough to win the whole business, especially given CT's leverage on the NEC itself.
Any new NHHS-Greenfield service is likely to be shopped around vigorously by CT and MA looking for the best deals on filling in the gaps in what they've already put together. So far, Mass is bringing to the table MBBs coaches that are worn out inside (retired from MBTA service but being "held" in storage) and the MBBs are mechanical near-matches for equipment CT already maintains. So its pretty clear that CT and MA are going to have the Equipment and Maintenance and 2/3 of the ROW (NEC and MA but not NHHS) they need from Day 1 and then will be shopping around operations and completely in control of whether there's NEC access. So Vermont is going to have to build its own WRJ terminus and do most of its bargaining with CT and MA, not Amtrak.