Amtrak Downeaster Discussion Thread

[Cowford]

Ok, leaving the impact itself aside, let's look at the reported visitor ridership. Attached is yet another collage (sorry!) from a February Amtrak report referencing NNEPRA, combined with excerpts from NNEPRA's most recent annual report at the time. Plugging in the claimed visitor ridership indicates that either the visitor claim is way overstated, or an average of just 26 Cumberland County residents board the train at a Maine station daily. (Anticipating the argument that the 26/day is based on 365 day service, and FY16 saw a lot of cancellations... if 15% of train-days were cancelled in FY16, the ridership would only increase to 30/day.)

DE Maine ridership FY16.JPG

[gokeefe]

I followed it all the way to the last slice when you took 52 and divided in half. There are plenty of travelers who do not make a same day return trip. It's also worth noting that if your dissection is correct (which it appears to be at first glance) that the train is doing a pretty good job of serving residents beyond York and Cumberland (Brunswick and Freeport are in Cumberland County along with Portland). That's a better result than expected.

Finally FY 17, which I believe concluded in June 2017 saw ridership of 511,422. Here's the link http://www.nnepra.com/sites/default/fil ... _Web_0.pdf. I'm guessing you used the FY 16 report because it had the breakdowns of ridership residency. I think it would be reasonable to run those numbers against FY 17 to see what comes out on a rough basis.

[Cosakita18]

Just out of pure curiosity, is there any chance of the DE getting Siemans Charger units?

[DutchRailnut]

not unless states involved are willing to buy them, non of current Chargers are Amtrak owned .

[east point]

not unless states involved are willing to buy them, non of current Chargers are Amtrak owned .

Several items before Chargers on Downeaster.
1. Amtrak would have to buy some and operate them out of Albany
2. Install CSX Cab signaling and ACSES.
3. NNE either buy some or amend their operating agreement to run Chargers.
4. Enough Chargers to assign them to Downeasters.

[Cowford]

I followed it all the way to the last slice when you took 52 and divided in half. There are plenty of travelers who do not make a same day return trip.

I stated it as 26 boardings... so 26 folks going west and 26 going east.

In other words, the entirety of Cumberland County, population 280,000+ including Portland, S Portland, Westbrook, Freeport, Brunswick, Yarmouth, Cumberland, Scarborough, Cape Elizabeth, Gorham, etc. generates less than a busload of originations each day for the Downeaster after 15 years of operation. And the rest of the state excluding York, representing a population of ~800,000 generates another 25-30 originations... combined, that's about a busload of Maine folks each way.

That's good?

Makes you wonder about all the talk about the BRU and Portland parking lots always being full!

[Matt Johnson]

Rail officials hope to extend Amtrak service to Rockland, Maine, next year

[gokeefe]

I followed it all the way to the last slice when you took 52 and divided in half. There are plenty of travelers who do not make a same day return trip.

I stated it as 26 boardings... so 26 folks going west and 26 going east.

In other words, the entirety of Cumberland County, population 280,000+ including Portland, S Portland, Westbrook, Freeport, Brunswick, Yarmouth, Cumberland, Scarborough, Cape Elizabeth, Gorham, etc. generates less than a busload of originations each day for the Downeaster after 15 years of operation. And the rest of the state excluding York, representing a population of ~800,000 generates another 25-30 originations... combined, that's about a busload of Maine folks each way.

That's good?

Makes you wonder about all the talk about the BRU and Portland parking lots always being full!

I think slicing away visitors and then going macro against the full population is questionable. The population "generates" travel demand for both visitors and residents. Once you start talking about a real world metric like a "bus load" it's not as if we are specifying the "Mainer Lines Bus Co. Inc." (for residents only). Buses, just like the train get filled by all kinds of people year round.

The Portland Parking lot has been a little more reasonable these past few months. I can usually find a spot all the way in the back. Brunswick's lot for the train? Full almost everyday.

At the end of the day if the train is succeeding in bringing visitors to Maine I think that's a good thing. It is also having a lot of success providing service to Maine residents as well.

[electricron]

There are lots of statistics posted in the 2017 Annual Report for Downeaster trains....
Let's list a few, then have some fun calculating what they mean.....
143 miles long rail corridor
Uses 3 train sets usually having 1 locomotive, 3 Amfleet coaches, 1 Amfleet cafe, and 1 NPTU.
Regular seating capacity per train = 306
Number of trains each workday = 10
Passenger ridership 511,422
Passenger miles 40,742,702
Ticket Revenue $8,620,119
On Time Performance 70%
Customer Satisfaction Index 90%
Total Operating Revenues $10,154,677 (46%)
(Tickets 85%, Food 7%, Parking 6%, Misc. 3%)
Total Subsidy $11,706,236 (43 +11 = 54%)
State Subsidy $2,374,484 (11%)
FTA Subsidy $9,331,752 (43%)
Operating Expenses $21,860,913
(Trains 87%, Administration 6%, Food Service 4%, Stations 3%)

Breakdown on Food Services
Cafe Revenue...Actual...% of Total
Food Sales...$339,452...48%
Liquor Sales...$337,725...48%
Other Sales...$32,501...4%
Total Revenues...$709,678...100%
Cafe Expenses...Food & Supplies...$308,487...35%
Liquor Costs...$79,784...9%
Labor...$413,740...47%
Administration...$70,915...9%
Total Expenses...$872,926...100%
Operating Cost of Cafe ($163,248)
Business Class Surcharge $345,258
Net Gain $182,010

Now to have some fun calculating more statistics not listed above.
Maximum passenger capacity per weekday (10 trains) = 3,040
Average passenger per day (365 days per year) = 1,401.15
Average passengers per train = 140.115
Average passenger trip length = 79.66 miles
Average percentage of route traveled = 55.7%
Average usage of train capacity per weekday = 46.08%
Average passenger fare = $16.85
Average subsidy per passenger = $22.89
Average cost of service per passenger = $42.74

Having a four car long Amfleet train with a seating capacity of 304 usually half full makes one wonder if they would be better off running a shorter train. FWTA new 4 car Stadler FLIRT DMU will have a seating capacity of 220 passengers, with another 18 additional flip up seats that could become available, but most likely most of the flip up seats would be lost for restrooms in a potential Downeaster service. Even with just 220 seated passengers, that's still more than the average 140 passengers per train on weekdays. And these trains can run in multiple units, so two 4 car units could run together, making the capacity of the train 440 passengers. Yes, 143 miles is much further than most FLIRT or KISS train operations in the USA (Redlands 9 miles, Fort Worth 27 miles, Caltrains 77 miles), I still think these trains should reduce the annual subsidy as far as train operations is concerned. And yes, three of the TexRail 4 car FLIRTS would cost around $37.5 million ($12.5 million each).

Don't forget when considering capital costs, $12.5 million buys 4 cars with 2 cabs and 1 power unit. A new Siemens Charger locomotive, 3 coach cars, and 1 cab-coach car will probably cost more. Using the latest orders Siemens has made, a Charger locomotive costs around $6.5 million, and the Brightline cars costs around $2.5 million each. Some quick math; 6.5 + 2.5 + 2.5 + 2.5 + 2.5 = 16.5. Even if you drop one coach from the trains to cut expenses, each Siemens train set will still cost $14 million.

[BandA]

Are track speeds high enough that the Downeaster would benefit from the higher performance (I assume) of a Charger?

[electricron]

Are track speeds high enough that the Downeaster would benefit from the higher performance (I assume) of a Charger?

I’ll admit I don’t know what the track speeds are the Downeaster trains use. But looking at the schedule, the average train speed is 42.9 mph. A typical elapse time from end to end is 3 hours and 20 minutes. Therefore, 143 miles / 3.33 hours = 42.9 mph.

While the Siemens Charger locomotives have a max speed rating of 125 mph, a Stadler FLIRT DMUs have a max speed rating of 79 mph (130 km/hr). 79 mph is the max speed for passenger trains on Class 4 tracks in America. I doubt Downeaster corridor tracks will ever be upgraded for higher speeds.

[BandA]

Acceleration from a stop & brake performance would also be better, I guess. I'm thinking probably not enough of a difference to affect the schedule.

[Backshophoss]

Amtrak has yet to order the Chargers for replacing the P42's,the next "problem" will be putting in PTC on PAR trackage,along with keeping PAR
honest on maintaining the current Class IV track at that level. And keeping PAR Dispatch from using passing sidings as places to "store" Trains
that went dead on the HOS laws(The Crew was out of hours) along the DE route!

[gokeefe]

Having a four car long Amfleet train with a seating capacity of 304 usually half full makes one wonder if they would be better off running a shorter train.

They run four and five car trainsets in the winter and often add a coach in the summer to run two trainsets with five cars (if not all three trainsets) in the summer.

The midday trains may be run light but the rush hour and evening trains are often sold out.

Are track speeds high enough that the Downeaster would benefit from the higher performance (I assume) of a Charger?

The speed would not necessarily be the primary benefit. Improved reliability, emissions and fuel efficiency could be. A detailed cost benefit analysis would definitely need to be done.

[electricron]

Having a four car long Amfleet train with a seating capacity of 304 usually half full makes one wonder if they would be better off running a shorter train.

They run four and five car trainsets in the winter and often add a coach in the summer to run two trainsets with five cars (if not all three trainsets) in the summer.

The midday trains may be run light but the rush hour and evening trains are often sold out.

Are track speeds high enough that the Downeaster would benefit from the higher performance (I assume) of a Charger?

The speed would not necessarily be the primary benefit. Improved reliability, emissions and fuel efficiency could be. A detailed cost benefit analysis would definitely need to be done.

Stadler DMU FLIRT trains can run in multiple units, adding another set to an existing set is possible to make a larger train. Increase speed of the Siemens or GE locomotive doesn’t gain much on a speed limited corridor. As for increase reliability, each Stadler DMU power car has two independent power trains compared to a sole power train in each traditional locomotive. If ran in multiple units, another dual power train power car would be added to the train.