by F-line to Dudley via Park
Head-end View wrote:I can't believe the 1800's are going to be replaced. To me they are still the "new cars" on the Red Line. But considering that they've been in-service since around 1994, I guess they will be close to 30 years old by 2023 when the new cars will finally arrive.It's first-generation early-90's AC propulsion vs. whatever perfected nth generation we're in now. Just enough evolution has taken place since '94 that they can't guarantee a life extension of >10 years for the 18's before declining parts supply starts to pinch off the upper-bound estimates for how long they could go. So while they're pretty much the template for most metro stock that came after them, the economics proved better going for full 30-year life tacked onto the end of the CRRC order when unit price is at its lowest, and having a complete Red fleet (first time ever?) that can trainline with all other cars. It's not that they couldn't rebuild and get perfectly good life extension...it's that cost-over-lifetime was hands down better this way. Every procurement cycle is different on how the planets align on rebuild vs. buying new. Sometimes it favors rebuild. Sometimes it even favors multiple rebuilds. And sometimes it favors one-and-done. Technical feasibility doesn't play into it, nor is there the kind of aftermarket for subway stock fueling any "retire no car before its time" golden rule like...say...a freight locomotive that can get passed down umpteen times from the largest Class I to the smallest shortline backstopping a favorable depreciation rate and near-immortal parts supply. This is just one of those times where numbers got crunched, and the numbers pointed convincingly in favor of one-and-done.
I wonder if buying from a company with no U.S. history is wise. (sound familiar?) I hope the Chinese build better cars than Hyundai-Rotem did or MBTA will get screwed yet again with another garbage product and wish they'd gone with Kawasaki or Bombardier. You'd think they would have learned this lesson the first time around.........
They're not bound to it since these are options. If the CRRC's stink they're not going to go through with replacing the 18's and they will about-face to RFP for a rebuild of them before the 15/16/17 replacements are totally at the back end of their options. It's just if the new cars are (hopefully) par or better quality there's no economic justification for nostalgia. (Besides, stainless steel is worth a whole lot more in scrap than aluminum right now.)