by Nasadowsk
<i>As to the EMD sale, i too think that the sooner the better.</i>
At least for GM. IMHO, the end result will be EMD leaving the new locomotive market. Right now, Phase II emissions can be more or less met by the 710. I doubt it'll survive the next wave. A new prime mover is a multi hundred million project, and it'll be 4 stroke (EMD's 2 stroke design is inherintly poor on HCs). I.e., it'll be more like the H engine and less like the typical EMD 2 strokes. Or, a ground up new design. Big bucks, and unproven territory.
Of course, selling 'renewal parts' and aftersales support could give a good steady stream of $$$ or a decade or two or three. Cheap and easy money. That's what investors like...
<i> It has not been a focus of GM at all, and the results speak for themselves.</i>
Why would it be? If anything, GM's focus these days is more finance than anything. EMD is, and probbably always was, a small part of the pie.
<i>We'll know in the next year or two whether EMD intends to be any kind of a player in the passenger market.</i>
They don't. Their last order was junk, they've not even bothered bidding on other more recent orders.
<i> I hope they are at least taking part in discussions with commuter agencies, as there are a couple of them that need to do some serious shopping coming up.</i>
Amtrak's got a good number of late model, stored P-40s. When they collapse, there will be another few dozen P-42s out there, all late model and serviceable. They'll go at fire sale prices - ideal for startups.
<i> The midwest high speed rail initiative for one is going to need a lot of equipment when that gets started,</i>
The MWRRI is a paper project now, and if it ever goes anywhere, will need equipment of a type that EMD not only doesn't make, but has no experience making.
<i> plus metra expansions and other projects around the country.</i>
Metra won't buy EMD. They didn't last time, the 610 can't be sold anymore in the US now. Other projects? They'll go for cheap used Amtrak power, or tag onto the PL-42 (though that will be hard - the PL-42 can't meet Phase II EPA), or MP orders (though the 610 can't meet EPA either).
<i> Sure would be nice to see some new EMD builders plates out there hauling fast passenger trains again.</i>
It's not going to happen. GM, nor whomever buys EMD, will want to make the few hundred million dollar investment to design a new passenger locomotive, and who's going to buy them anyway? GE has stated their new PAX offerings will only be sold with a minimum order of 15 or so units, which means for a startup operation they're unavailable, and right now, save for the MBTA, there's no big turnover in passenger diesel fleets on the horizon. The MBTA might be interesting to watch, but even then, EMD might not bother stepping up to the plate, especially if the MBTA wants AC units.
At least for GM. IMHO, the end result will be EMD leaving the new locomotive market. Right now, Phase II emissions can be more or less met by the 710. I doubt it'll survive the next wave. A new prime mover is a multi hundred million project, and it'll be 4 stroke (EMD's 2 stroke design is inherintly poor on HCs). I.e., it'll be more like the H engine and less like the typical EMD 2 strokes. Or, a ground up new design. Big bucks, and unproven territory.
Of course, selling 'renewal parts' and aftersales support could give a good steady stream of $$$ or a decade or two or three. Cheap and easy money. That's what investors like...
<i> It has not been a focus of GM at all, and the results speak for themselves.</i>
Why would it be? If anything, GM's focus these days is more finance than anything. EMD is, and probbably always was, a small part of the pie.
<i>We'll know in the next year or two whether EMD intends to be any kind of a player in the passenger market.</i>
They don't. Their last order was junk, they've not even bothered bidding on other more recent orders.
<i> I hope they are at least taking part in discussions with commuter agencies, as there are a couple of them that need to do some serious shopping coming up.</i>
Amtrak's got a good number of late model, stored P-40s. When they collapse, there will be another few dozen P-42s out there, all late model and serviceable. They'll go at fire sale prices - ideal for startups.
<i> The midwest high speed rail initiative for one is going to need a lot of equipment when that gets started,</i>
The MWRRI is a paper project now, and if it ever goes anywhere, will need equipment of a type that EMD not only doesn't make, but has no experience making.
<i> plus metra expansions and other projects around the country.</i>
Metra won't buy EMD. They didn't last time, the 610 can't be sold anymore in the US now. Other projects? They'll go for cheap used Amtrak power, or tag onto the PL-42 (though that will be hard - the PL-42 can't meet Phase II EPA), or MP orders (though the 610 can't meet EPA either).
<i> Sure would be nice to see some new EMD builders plates out there hauling fast passenger trains again.</i>
It's not going to happen. GM, nor whomever buys EMD, will want to make the few hundred million dollar investment to design a new passenger locomotive, and who's going to buy them anyway? GE has stated their new PAX offerings will only be sold with a minimum order of 15 or so units, which means for a startup operation they're unavailable, and right now, save for the MBTA, there's no big turnover in passenger diesel fleets on the horizon. The MBTA might be interesting to watch, but even then, EMD might not bother stepping up to the plate, especially if the MBTA wants AC units.