Who ya got? (NS vs. CSX)

Cowford wrote:CN9634 - a few comments on your points:

WC ports are NOT congested. The reasons behind the WC to EC shift are multi-faceted... past congestion was an issue at four-five years ago. And to the best of my knowledge, Boston's container numbers aren't going up.

"Energy" trains coming out of NB? Natural gas comes into NE from the Maritimes via pipeline and refined petroleum via vessel. What other energy is there to move?

Outside of newsprint, the paper industry has stabilized. I don't see any mill builds in the future, but Maine's core mills have a future.

CSXI bought property in Portland to start up operations? Really?

Poland Spring water will be hauled to Waterville for intermodal furtherence west? Really??

NS will try to run intermodal out of St. John... to compete with Halifax? REALLY???


"Could the cargo facilities and traffic in Halifax be duplicated in Portland Harbor"

Anything's possible with enough time and money. But considering that Portland has no container terminal/supporting infrastructure and that the harbor's draft is inadequate for larger vessels, the earlier comment that it would be easy is wishful thinking.

Boston just signed a deal with 2 container lines, potentially more. Halifax-Portland-Boston clipper service to begin soon.

If the $7 billion dollar refinery is built in NB then yes energy trains. There was talk about this a hand full of years ago but now the refinery is on hold.

CSXI bought (and later sold) property in South Portland years ago. They wanted an office there to facilitate GRS/CSX relations. This is around the time they ran Q409/Q410 from Maine to Georgia.

Poland Spring has numerous times commented they wish to ship via rail. They did a test load in a boxcar and guess how that turned out. They have spoke numerous times of containerized traffic as a possibility.

Portland is too small to compete with Halifax. Searsport and or Eastport are the only one that could with substantial investment. Hence the reason why St. John is a critical point. It is not under CN control, although the intermodal traffic out of there is now heading on CN after numerous failures of CDAC service. Some of this traffic that used to ship across New England via CDAC has gone to Halifax. Further, the CN-NBSR-GRS New England Clipper Service (That connected with NS at Ayer) failed because of GRS service levels. They wanted to have 50 containers a week for a dedicated service. At one point they were peaking around 40. This traffic also moved to CN out of Halifax.

Gentlemen take what I say for what it's worth and if you think that I'm full of it so be it. I'll just say though, stranger things then what I have mentioned have happened. And a lot of what I've said has already been looked into. I myself doubt that half the things I mentioned will really happen. Welcome to the world of business, no absolutes. I let you know if I have any more "crazy" predictions.

CN9634 - if you'll recall, not too long ago MDOT put out an inquiry seeking developers/operators for a proposed Sears Island container terminal. They received no responses. Just that a location has great draft or plenty of land does not make it suitable for viable terminal development (see QB's last note). The Port of St John has been downgrading to a niche container terminal... and will stay that way due to, amon other issues, tidal-related access constraints.

What would you expect to come out of the refinery by rail?

The large transoceanic shipping companies decided better than 20 years ago to concentrate on fewer, larger ports. Their
abandonment of St. John is a large part of CP dumping the line to New Brunswick- as stated earlier the steamship companies have a
lot of say regarding traffic flows. I find it hard to imagine the CN would be interested in short hauling itself by giving Halifax
traffic away to another carrier at St. John. As for ports in Maine, the State as well as various shippers have tried to promote the use
of Eastport, Searsport and Portland for years and have been hindered by smallish flows of mostly low value bulk commodities as well
Federal prohibitions of foreign flag ships calling at multiple US ports in succession. The coastal container feeder operation between
the Port of NY/NJ, Boston, Portland and Halifax had to use some creative and not very efficient routing to overcome this. I suppose
there is the possibility of some dedicated operation- when U.S.Filter bought the Maine Central in 1980 part of that scheme was
based on shipping coal from southwestern Pennsylvania to Portland by rail to be transloaded onto ships. We all see how that worked
out!

To the earlier point about possible further future investment supporting NS' or CSX's position in New England, the Commonwealth of MA, a very important New England "gateway" state with somewhere around 75% of freight rail traffic to/from/through New England entering or exiting by way of the NS/PAS and CSX mainlines that traverse it, has identified as worthy the following potential investments: creating domestic doublestack capability on PAS into Ayer, to Maine from both NS at Ayer and CSX at Worcester via Pan Am, and to RI on the P&W; expanding PAS/NS' Ayer intermodal ramp; and, creating 286K capacity on CSX/Mass. Coastal from Framingham to New Bedford.

Thanks for the feedback about Portland Harbor. If the draft's too shallow for the larger ships then that settles it... I don't see permits for dredging a new harbor bottom coming along in my lifetime. Given the lack of progress on Searsport / Sears Island, and the tidal and border issues that recur in Eastport, it strikes me that the issue is settled. Maybe some more robust (but not huge) container handling facilities can be built at the former Scotia Prince terminal, but that's probably about it, and even there MDOT is currently proceeding on enhancements without bringing rail in.

>>The port of NY/NJ is pretty darned close. And it's more than three: NY/NJ, Norfolk, Charleston, Savannah, and Miami.

>>>The key phrase is "gearing up." If you're reading the same industry rags that I am, only Norfolk, Charleston, and Savannah are actively working to dredge harbors and expand rail connections. The other two appear to be in the early planning stages.



Port Newark has been expanding for years. In the last 2 years they have added tons of trackage and yards in prep. for larger ships.
They are also planning on raising the bayonne bridge. tons of freight goes from newark to new england. They will not give it up easily.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/0 ... bayon.html