Backshophoss wrote:Sooner or later,ConnDOT with the help of ConnDEC,will find a way to "force" repairs to the Maybrook route or "force" the sale of the route
to the state. The Maybrook route is the "Safety Valve" for MNR since it connects to all 3 lines and 2 branches,allowing for equipment moves
between all lines. The Maybrook route was the heavy freight main for New Haven untill the PC merger and bridge fire.
While HRRC might "Self Distruct", BSRM,along with DRM are now "Hostages" to the mess.
How are the current customers along HRRC's routes holding up?
Best Bet would be a "Directed Service Order" from the STB to allow a P+W "takeover"
State would definitely be interested in taking the remaining private-owned trackage under public ownership. They want the Berkshire from Danbury to New Milford as a commuter rail hold for a Danbury Branch extension, and they already own the rest of the Berkshire to the MA border. The Maybrook from Derby-Danbury is obviously a potentially nuclear situation if P&W gets fed up again. Since there is an operator today who wants to use it and use it well that's a justifiable expense. And Maybrook west of there to the state line is a little less than 5 miles and as mentioned an MNRR safety valve that connects with contiguous public ownership in NY.
I doubt the public takeover of ownership is going to be that big a deal if HRCC is broke. All 3 of the privately-owned segments have well-justifiable upside for CDOT, and they've been very aggressive over the years at locking up every ROW that comes available. HRCC's asking price is likely going to be laughable
until the cat's out of the bag that they're insolvent and going under. But the money would absolutely appear overnight if they could gain control of that trackage. The messy part is if HRCC goes belly-up, and what kind of bath the taxpayers are going to take so the state can fix up the line just enough to make it palatable for a new operator. P&W just doesn't have obvious justification for interest in the Berkshire. And some plucky operation like CNZR is going to need more investors to be able to swallow that much new trackage, although they've done such a good job reviving business on the Armory and Griffin with meager resources that they'd absolutely be able to do some nice things developing a line like that. But there's not a lot of good answers here. If $165M is the repair baseline for providing good freight service in Western CT, there's no way a private carrier is going to front even half of HRCC's maint hole. The state has to take that hit, and it will be ugly.
I think there's some dominoes yet to fall, and the intriguing player to watch is RailAmerica with CSO. It's the worst-kept secret in the world how much they covet PAS's sorely underutilized Highland Line and Plainville/Waterbury yards. They're clearly in a substantial expansion mindset with that spiffy new engine facility in Hartford. They have corporate synergies with NECR if the Conn River Line upgrades and potential 286K'ing of the Springfield Line to Hartford Yard set up a high-volume pass-through where PAS can shuttle goods to them from NECR. And it's a burning question why PAS is bothering to hold on to the Highland when it's only served once a week and is the single biggest outlier in PAS territory to the Class I partnership's business model. IF CSO were to gain control down to Derby, then this starts getting a little interesting. Would they then be interested in the Berkshire and Maybrook (to Danbury...I just can't see any freight ever using the Beacon again), and acquiring themselves a contiguous V-shaped circuit across Western and Central CT with CSX exchanges on either end. Especially if that's a 286K line they'd be going after. Maybe. They're in "coopetition" with P&W, both on the partnership side with the Canadian Gateway alignment and on the competition side with expansion. Long-term I'm sure the two RA carriers would love to achieve coverage parity with P&W in CT, because that would bottle them up from encroachment elsewhere. And no doubt the state prefers working with RA and P&W over others based on their existing working relationships.
But that's still jumping a couple moves ahead of ourselves. Both RA and P&W are preoccupied with mainline upgrades first, nobody yet knows what PAS's long-term plan is going to be for CT, and who knows if HRCC is going to implode tomorrow sooner than anyone else would be able to act. Best case scenario is probably that they can cut out the crazy and hold on for just a few more years until the other wheelings and dealings among in-state carriers has settled out and the other carriers can act on some territorial expansion opportunities. Maybe sell the lines to the state for some repair collateral...at a
sane asking price.
But outward signs are not looking good that this is going to be a drama-free short-term future or that, if the end comes for HRCC, it's not going to be a radioactive mess burning the state badly on the salvage job. This has the smell of an "any moment now" implosion. Either that or the execs' behavior is taking on the characteristics of some elaborate "Weekend at Bernie's" act on the PR end to buy themselves some time to pull their personal holdings out of the business and try to find some sucker to give them a cash infusion before the jig is up.
