F-line to Dudley via Park wrote:There's no one trigger that would get them buying electrics, just nothing yet big enough yet to be that trigger. But I'd look to Rhode Island's ambitions as a possible sign.
It's entirely possible that MBTA CR could get reorganized, or divisionally separated from inside-128 subway/bus/boat/Ride operations, and become a Metro North-style true multi-state operation in the next 20 years. Rhode Island is already betting big on doing local CR to Westerly on the NEC. Well, the Providence Line is not going all the way to Westerly...but it is going to T.F. Green/Wickford as an MBTA service, well out-of-district. Where exactly do you draw the line on where they should run in purple colors vs. what they need to create a whole CR entity of their own...with their own equipment, with their own separate-trained staff, with their own payment system. Maybe you don't. Maybe you look to the CDOT model of pooling all your equipment and ops with Metro North to save redundancy, but pay by whose territory you run in (e.g. Shore Line East vs. New Haven Line). Meaning, it's all a contiguous setup but Westerly-Providence doesn't cost MA a dime, the MBTA is reimbursed for all out-of-state miles on shared equipment's odometers, and they pay for Providence-hub staffing/yards/maintenance for north and south service a la CDOT in New Haven. Maybe with their own "mostly RI" fleet they maintain in their own yards if number of total number of CR trains on the NEC grows to merit that.
RI is going to be game for this. Wickford's getting built because they haven't shied away from paying their share for extra staff and trainsets. It's win-win for the T...somebody else is paying the operating costs, they're getting more ticket revenue at South Station the more ridership grows, and they get more subsidized new equipment and staff to run on a mostly in-state line the more RI foots the bill for that growth. Even politics being politics in MA, they'll play ball with that. Incrementally on the current trajectory, then maybe with 'mercenary' MBCR Providence-Westerly service, and then maybe the day comes that it hits critical mass and some more substantial agency buy-in across state lines becomes logical.
...and possibly contingent on: New Hampshire. We know with the budget and political situation up there that NH commuter rail progress moves molasses-slow and that we're not holding our breaths on Capitol Corridor service soon (Plaistow is different...that's all about moving a layover yard and getting a bonus stop for some Wachusett-style stimulus spare change). But the T's attitude is all the same...you wanna pay for it, we'll go wherever you want to go. The ridership projections to Manchester and Concord are slam-dunk (enough to make upgrading a few miles of track North Chelmsford to state line a fairly straightforward expense), and they'll likewise get subsidy for staff and equipment the more it grows. Now you've really got something interesting cooking if you're going intercity to NH and RI. That screams for rethinking the agency's setup and re-chartering it to where the satellite states have a more official stake (limited to their interstate services) than just leeching off pay-as-you-go.
Now, you're not going to be running electrics on the NH Main unless the N-S link gets built and it gets assimilated into the NEC. But the whole thinking is very different if you're a pan-state agency because significant number of your trains are going to have a subsidy line item on the books paid out by one of the other states. Meaning equipment's going to get stratified a little bit more than just all-northside or all-southside, and you'll likely see equipment organized more by interstate mains + branches. Maybe not with the same diesel/3rd rail/overhead segmentation as Metro North has to operationally do, but more on standardizing what makes the other states can service in their own yards vs. having everything monolithically under BET's roof. Maybe that means NH only gets a majority of 1 type of loco run its way and a couple series of coaches so they don't have to be all things to all northside equipment to pull their maintenance weight. And maybe that gets RI thinking about pushing for some electrics since that's all they see on their tracks anyway with Amtrak and likely CDOT someday poking some extended SLE variation into their territory.
Sorry I missed your post before, didn't realize it went on the next page...
I'm not so sure that a true multi-state agency really makes that much sense for a CR operation that is largely based on Boston as a hub, and most lines and operations are in the state of Massachusetts. The only interstate agency I could see would be one to run the NEC commuter operations in contract with Amtrak from NHV to BOS. This would be an interesting proposition, but the big downside is that it would totally pull the gear out of both CDOT and MBTA operation pools, which would be operationally disadvantageous both for MBTA and for CDOT's current branch service with MN, the NHHS service, and any other future service, since loco-hauled electric trains could easily be switched over to diesel in New Haven.
The biggest hurdle I see to extending MBTA service any farther than Wickford is that Westerly, while it does have a CR demand, doesn't need to be running 8-car sets with some double deckers. If the Providence Line is electrified, and ridership continues to be strong on CR, it's not unfathomable to see 10-car double decker sets, a la NJT. This is ridiculous equipment to run south through Westerly.
The other big issue is where do you draw the dividing line between the two services? There is no logical place to draw it between Kingston and New Haven, as there would be a good number of people riding from various points along the line, including Westerly, Groton, New London, and New Haven. To me, it looks like Wickford or maybe a stop north would be a logical place to have the two service meet and build a transfer terminal with at least four platform tracks. Although Kingston might work on a map, having a bunch of interlockings in the middle of a stretch of track that trains run 150mph on would be a nightmare, and also would limit it's flexibility, since Acela wouldn't be able to cross over there.
With all that being said, the logical partner for Rhode Island is to work with CDOT, running trains through from NHV to around the Wickford area and connecting with MBTA.
That leaves a question of equipment. CDOT wants to get M8 cars, but I can't see those as making any sense east of NHV. They are something like $1.8M a piece, and a chunk of their cost is their dual mode operation, which is totally irrelevant to RIDOT and SLE. It seems to me that used AEM-7's or ALP-44's with used Comet cars or similar would make better and more cost effective trains for this service.