CSX Acquisition of Pan Am Railways

Gilbert B Norman wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:35 am

bostontrainguy wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:12 am Any other ideas?

Mr. Train Guy, regarding your immediate, Worcester-Ayer as in the B&M line that was "route of the State of Maine"?

I guess what I'm at a loss to understand is if the master plan is to route all traffic over the B&A, why need anyone spend $$$ to upgrade the B&M/PAS to Class 3 or 4 and dig out Hoosac?

That's $$$$ for which Chessie's and/or Topper's shareholders will want "bang".

Mr. Norman,
The Worcester - Ayer line would be necessary to access Worcester IMT from the north.
The master plan is to route all traffic over the PAS/PAR, not the B&A. CSX will sell the B&A for big bucks and could negotiate the other items in the deal.
The "bang" would be the "$$$$"

I think need to just debunk this theory of them moving all service to the B&M. What ifs are nice, but it just isn't going to happen.

Why would they be interested in buying Pan Am's half of PAS then?

bostontrainguy wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:12 am Besides lots of money, what would your demands as CSX be? What would you need from the State to make this plan work for you? I can think of the following items that I would ask the State to help with:

Double Stack clearance for the entire PAR/PAS route through Massachusetts including the Hoosac Tunnel.
Double Stack clearance for the Worcester - Ayer main line.
Reactivation of the short gap at the north end of the Fitchburg - Framingham line.
Rebuilding of the Yard 8 loop track through the inner belt area in Somerville (already in the GLX plan some say).
Reconnection of the Charlestown Wharf/Moran branch through FX with OWL diamonds (a wild card but why not at least try so you can give a little?).

Would be very, very surprised if anyone is interested in restoring Leominster-Fitchburg. Framingham traffic I think would go via upgraded Worcester route. Ag branch was always a light branch line and its infrastructure reflects that.

bostontrainguy wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:53 am Why would they be interested in buying Pan Am's half of PAS then?

Are they? What evidence is there? By default, if they purchase Pan Am Railways, they get half of PAS, whether they like it or not. NS would have to want to buy out that 50%, and all parties willing to muddy the STB water more if they want to change the joint operation.

For all we know, CSX's eyes are on something else (to the East).

All will be revealed very soon...

FWIW, Mass Dot sent letters to the STB last night about the importance of having the state served by two Class Is. Probably be available once it's scanned and received.

I really enjoy all of the discussion and speculation around the possible sale, thank you to all the contributors. One question I have is what proportion of the traffic that NS moves west over PAS now originates from points east of Ayer, and would that likely go away if CSX purchased PAR? What I am really wondering is if a NS buyout of the other half of PAS would be viable if CSX owned east of Ayer?

If I had to spitball, 75% of NS traffic terminates on PAS, 25% on PAR or beyond. If it all goes to CSX depends on the customer and the routing that they want to pay for to get it where it needs to go.

bostontrainguy wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:53 am Why would they be interested in buying Pan Am's half of PAS then?

It could be because Timmy Mellon wants to sell his railroad all in one peice. If CSX is serious about buying Pan Am, well they don't really have a choice on what part of the railroad they want to buy, do they?

I would think that CSX would have made mention that they offered or intend to offer to sell the half share to NS to satisfy their concerns. STB would have liked that. Nothing like that has been mentioned.

CSX did say in their statement confirming the talks that: "As part of this effort, CSX has engaged directly with Norfolk Southern to understand any issues they might have.”

So maybe an agreement can be reached were as apart of a CSX purchase of Pan Am, NS gets 100% ownership over Pan Am Southern? Even if CSX tries to swallow Pan Am whole, the STB might force this as a condition.

I think the ball is really in NS 's court where if there is no behind the door agreement between them and CSX then they will be the first ones in line at the surf board along with Mass DOT. I got to believe some kind of an agreement has been made and still think it would involve shared assets.

woodeen wrote: ↑Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:38 am One question I have is what proportion of the traffic that NS moves west over PAS now originates from points east of Ayer, and would that likely go away if CSX purchased PAR? What I am really wondering is if a NS buyout of the other half of PAS would be viable if CSX owned east of Ayer?

Pretty much everything on EDPO/POED will shift to the B&A. Even stuff going to NS will probably go to Selkirk first and then to the next convenient junction west or south of there. This is NS's best argument against CSX: The traffic loss will make PAS non-viable so they will have to jack rates on the remaining traffic and start a death spiral that winds up leaving most of New England controlled by CSX. Not sure it will fly, but it is worth a shot.

There is no problem with the Castleton Bridge. It's not down to a single track and never has been. Speed over the bridge is 30 MPH, which is timetable max speed. In fact the bridge has been being rebuilt for at least the past 2 years. Look on google earth street view if you don't believe me. You can clearly see the new steel they have put in the bridge towers.

There is now way the B&M is going to become the main freight route into New England, I think that the stories about the bridge not being up to par being false should put this crazy idea to rest

Here is photo evidence of the bridge. Notice two trains on it at the same time. https://www.railpictures.net/photo/752596/