Next you’ll tell us that South Shore should terminate in Hammond because it takes too long at Kensington Interlocking
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Here are the top ten
Minnesota metropolitan statistical areas by population, including bordering MSAs (and CSAs and μSAs where applicable):
1) Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington: 3,629,190 (mainly in Minnesota)
2) Duluth-Superior: 278,799 (mainly MN)
3) Fargo-Moorhead CSA: 261,710 (mainly ND)
4) Rochester: 219,872
5) St. Cloud: 199,801
6) La Crosse: 136,808 (mainly WI)
7) Mankato-New Ulm-North Mankato CSA: 126,758
8) Grand Forks: 102,299 (mainly ND)
9) Brainerd μSA: 94,408
10) Faribault-Northfield μSA: 66,523
The numbers are a little misleading. A MSP-LSE train would also serve the Red Wing (46,403) and Winona (50,825) μSAs; a train straight south from the Cities would hit Northfield and Faribault but also hit Owatonna (36,803) and Austin (40,011) or Albert Lea (30,444) μSAs.
What that means in terms of trains is that the existing
Empire Builder axis already reaches the highest potential population. It may not serve the communities well - why there’s no Elk River and Hastings stations is beyond me - but it hits a daisy chain of MSAs and μSAs from border to border that add over three-quarters of a million people to the Builder’s catchment beyond that of the Twin Cities.
Next priority would be Duluth and Rochester, neither of which have significant MSAs or μSAs between them and the Twin Cities. Call it about 280,000 and 220,000 people as the distant anchors respectively, both with underused airports which could help relieve KMSP. Rochester will be difficult, never having had a direct rail route to the Cities - that’s why there’s been so many fits and starts in the effort to get service.
After that, pickings start getting slim. Northfield-Faribault-Austin nets about 140,000 in their μSAs, while a train to Mankato gets about 125,000 if you assume New Ulm will also contribute. Brainerd isn’t on a direct rail path to the Twin Cities anymore - the former NP route is trail-banked - but would be part of a service reaching about 300,000 people (via St. Cloud.)
So, my priorities would be:
A) Two to four daily trains LSE-MSP-STC-FAR and beyond
-two CHI-MKE-MSP regionals, one CHI-MSP-GFK-Winnipeg regional, plus the
Empire Builder and possibly a MSP-STC-FAR-Bismarck service
-reliable Thruway connections to Brainerd
B) Duluth service
-at least two round-trips daily, four would be better
-connecting bus or heritage railroad service to Two Harbors and to the Iron Range
C) Rochester service via Northfield, Faribault and Owatonna
-indirect, yes, but it serves a lot of people and doesn’t require new right-of-way construction.
-can later be split into a direct Rochester train and a MSP-Des Moines train
D) a pair of daily round-trips to New Ulm via Mankato
Note: I haven’t researched Wisconsin destinations in the same radius, but Hudson (in the MSP MSA), Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire would provide a couple hundred thousand people in their respective areas. It could be worth a train.