Official Maine Eastern Railroad Thread (ME) - 2009

[mwhite]

Cowford -

While you make a compelling case that this might have been a bad investment, you are totally leaving out two important benefits. First, there is the avoided cost of further improvements to Route 1 to handle the increased traffic that would result if Dragon Cement had to ship everything by truck (both to the Rockland waterfront, and interchange traffic to Brunswick). Anyone who travels Route 1 between Memorial Day and Labor Day (like I do for my business), knows that stretches of this road are not much better than a parking lot. Various scenarios have been studied to bypass Wiscasset and other bottlenecks, all of which costs many millions of dollars, garner heated local opposition, and would do little except move the jam down the road another 5 miles.

Second, there are the associated benefits accrued by Rockland, and some extent Brunswick, by the money spent by the passenger customers. Most passengers originate at Brunswick, spend money for lunch, museum admission, and purchases in Rockland. Let's say each spends on average $10. Using your numbers (I don't know what the actual ridership numbers are), that would amount to $250,000 alone in sales in Rockland. The receivers of this in turn employ workers, who in turn spend the money in the local area. I'm sure you are well aware of the multiplier effect.

Lastly what would be the cost of putting Dragon at a competitive disadvantage by not providing rail service? Lower employment? Yet another industry lost in Maine -- a State that can ill afford to drive away more jobs?

If we applied the your criteria to every public project in this State, we'd be traveling on rutted, muddy roads, drinking untreated water, and using outhouses even in the most urban environments. While some might like that (think Unity College students), I think we might as well put up closed for business signs at our borders.

[Cowford]

MWHITE, you make a few assumptions with which I'd take issue: On freight: Without subsidy, Dragon would not ship their water traffic by rail. That's a stretch, as I believe the unloading facility in Rockland is set up for rail only (I may be wrong). Regardless, they've already been given a new unloading spur and had all their connecting lines rebuilt on the govt dime. Why shouldn't Dragon pay their share of upkeep on the line? Your other assumption is that Dragon will be irreparably harmed by removal of rail. Again, I'm not saying that the line should be shut down, only that if Dragon wants it, they should pay for it. By the way, Dragon seemed to do ok when the line was inactive.

Your assumption of passenger service: that those passengers getting on the train in Brunswick woudn't have otherwise visited the coastal area (and possibly spent MORE money as they had more time and schedule flexibility with their auto) , or didn't subsequently go further Downeast by car. VERY doubtful. How many folks do you actually think planned their vacation to Brunswick???

I think your last statement is a little extreme (not sure what privies have to do with the subject at-hand). But if we applied YOUR criteria within Maine, EVERY business in Maine would be at the public feeding trough looking for handouts... and EVERY rail maintenance/repair project would be paid for through govt. handout.

[mwhite]

Cowford -

You miss my points, I hope not intentionally.

On freight: Any time you raise the cost of producing goods (cement), you put the producer at a disadvantage relative to other producers. If you don't think it matters, then why should the State and federal govt subsidize the highways at all? If it doesn't matter, then we shouldn't put a nickel in to them and the paper industry, cement industry and all other private users should have to go build and maintain their own roads. Obviously that would be a disaster.

On passenger: True we don't know how many of the passengers would have come up the coast anyway, but I have first hand knowledge that many come to Brunswick and Rockland to ride the train that otherwise wouldn't (including my own family and friends). The point was that this generates economic activity which has a multiplier effect. If you oversimplify the costs and benefits as you have, sure it looks like a bad deal for the State. My point was that there are various other benefits that you are ignoring that do have a positive effect on the local and regional economy. If we ignored such benefits when looking at highway and air subsidies, then they look like terrible investments too! Why pick on rail alone?

- Mike

[Cowford]

Mike - your highway analogy doesn't wash. First of all, toll roads like the ME Turnpike are not subsidized. They are paid for with user fees. Indiana privatized it's "Indiana Toll Road" in 2006, and it's now operating at a profit. Secondly, generally speaking, federal and state highway costs are largely covered by user fees. It's primarily local roads that are paid for through local and state tax revenue... and I'd argue that roads were funded in part through subsidy because there has been no way to practically, accurately and fairly assess user-based fees. RFID technology is starting to change that. (Think of an RFID tag on your car that gets scanned periodically to assess your road usage and charge you - it's coming!) Anyway I digress... Look through my past posts: I have NEVER advocated increasing (or even maintaining) roadway subsidies... in fact, I suggested in a fairly recent post that Maine allow higher weight limits on I-95 only if trucker taxes are increased to cover the incremental damage caused.

Anyway - the preponderence of Dragon's business goes over Rockland, four rail-miles away. Your contention is that if Dragon had to maintain that line on their own, this burden would put them at a competitive disadvantage vis-a-vis their competition? Maintenance on that line segment would be about, oh, $50,000 per year, say, tops, in round numbers. You really think that'll put 'em under? And regarding the rest of the line... as I stated earlier, Dragon seemed to do ok when the branch was inactive, so I'm not sure why the subsidy is essential. And with two minor - and transloadable - exceptions, there ain't no other opportunities on that line.

By the way, I think you mean cost of TRANSPORTING, not PRODUCING goods.

Ok, passenger: the fact is: the state poured $26 million into this line for a service that has yet to materialize. So why continue spending MORE money on the line? Why should not the Maine Eastern maintain it at their cost and reclaim their costs through higher freight and tourist charges?

I understand the multiplier effect. If I open a lemonade stand in Rockland, the economic activity generated will exceed the revenue I take in because I'm buying cups from Bill and lemons from Patty. I get it. I think it's safe to say that the vast majority of folks don't come to area for just the train ride, though it's presence has some positive affect on tourism (which further exacerbates the region's traffic problem - oops). So let's calculate the INCREMENTAL economic activity in Rockland that the train provides. Say 5% come up for the train alone and would not have otherwise visited - and spent money - in the area... that's 1,250 people * $10 (using your figure) = $12,500. I just found a stat that says $1 of extra tourism revenue = $7 for a state's economy. Ok, so that's 12.5*7= $87,500 incremental economic activity purchased for $1+ million annual investment.

Call me skeptical.... it still doesn't sound like a good deal.

[mwhite]

Who said anything about toll roads? Last I checked I-295 and I-95 north of Gardiner do not have tolls (wait that was yesterday that I drove them. Maybe they put up toll booths this morning). And again, you minimize or ignore the points I try to make. I'm done with this ridiculous exercise in futility.

[Cowford]

As an historical aside: back in the summer of 1979, Dragon actually shipped unit trains from Rockland to MA (Wilmington). I think the cars may have moved in regular train service on MEC to Rigby, and BM ran a dedicated overnight turn from there (POWI/WIPO). It was usually a short train (15-25 cars, one unit) and was abolished on October 25 (according to my records), never to be reestablished again.

[Cowford]

Take it easy, Mike. You mentioned road subsidies in general... neither you nor I specifically referred to I-295 and I-95 north of Gardiner. So I was referring to road subsidies in general, starting with toll roads.

[coltsfoot]

hmmm the interstate highway system operates at a profit ?


Here in Connecticut I can't think of a toll road yet they all exist in profitable status.


Amtrak should operate at a profit.


-- just some satire.... if it were not for free roads the rail industry might get a little boost.... pay the costs...18 wheeler at 200,000 pounds 25 cents at the booth....

[gokeefe]

Just a quick note:

As previously mentioned the Lewiston Lower Road was also included for funds as part of the bond issue for Question 6. It appears to be part of the same line item of $1,000,000 for the Rockland Branch.

I compiled some research about what has been going on with this Right of Way and posted it to a Lewiston Lower Road thread in the B&M/MEC forum.

http://www.railroad.net/forums/viewtopi ... a&start=15

The bottom line regardless is that we all want to see Amtrak get to Brunswick, otherwise this project will never have been worth it.

[Cowford]

GO'K - was the ME Eastern ever conferred the designated operating rights to the Lewiston Lower? At what point in Brunswick does State of Maine track end and PAR ownership begin?

The bottom line regardless is that we all want to see Amtrak get to Brunswick, otherwise this project will never have been worth it.

Hold the phone - "we all?!?" Keep in mind that even if service is extended to Brunswick, this in no way means service will automatically be further extended to Rockland. Brunswick has a population of ~20,000. Rockland is under 10,000. I don't mean to harp on it, but I'm still scratching my head over from where the expected ridership is going to come, esp. considering the tourist season lasts less than four months.

[gokeefe]

GO'K - was the ME Eastern ever conferred the designated operating rights to the Lewiston Lower? At what point in Brunswick does State of Maine track end and PAR ownership begin?

As far as the Lewiston Lower goes I'm going to guess that they don't have the operating rights at present because if they did I think they would already be hauling from Grimmels. To my knowledge PAR begins somewhere just west of where ME currently has their platform, in between the two branches of the wye track.

The bottom line regardless is that we all want to see Amtrak get to Brunswick, otherwise this project will never have been worth it.

Hehe [chuckle 2x] I wondered if anyone would notice....

Hold the phone - "we all?!?" Keep in mind that even if service is extended to Brunswick, this in no way means service will automatically be further extended to Rockland. Brunswick has a population of ~20,000. Rockland is under 10,000. I don't mean to harp on it, but I'm still scratching my head over from where the expected ridership is going to come, esp. considering the tourist season lasts less than four months.

Actually Maine Eastern has been quite clear that they will be ready to being some kind of modified year round passenger service as soon as Amtrak gets to Brunswick. The real question in my mind is how long it would take them to activate the Augusta Lower Road, they have also made several very proactive statements to the effect that this line would be activated as well if Downeaster service comes to Brunswick.

I think the ridership has a couple of elements but the base would be commuters going to Bath Iron Works which to this day still employs about 8,000-10,000 people in a few concentrated locations. It artifically generates traffic flows of a much larger city by concentrating commuting workers from a broad rural area all in one place which happens to be ideally located on a rail line. Keep in mind although 3rd shift at the 'Yard' is pretty much a skeleton of what is used to be second shift is still well manned. This has the potential to create both outgoing and ingoing flows of passengers at the same times. The line's geography, having the downtown yard in between Brunswick and points east, makes it possible for several commuter streams to fall into place. I strongly believe this is one of the main reasons that the state went to so much trouble to renovate the Bath railroad station. Note that Bath is the only locale to get this treatment other than Rockland, which is were the 'Big Plan' says the 'Really Important Train' is going to go someday.

If they were really focused on the tourist operation they would have dumped money into the Wiscasset station but they didn't. Augusta is a little different. There is an obvious market for commuters working for the state and perhaps commuters working in Portland but in reality they'll need to connect to Waterville sooner rather than later which means running over PAR tracks and we all know the only way to do that is to have Amtrak involved.

[gokeefe]

Sorry to double post...

On another note I've been thinking about investments in station infrastructure recently. Although the state has had a real struggle getting money setup for trackwork from Portland to Brunswick they have had no such difficulty getting new stations constructed or renovating old ones. Thinking back on the last few years here's a short list of stations that have been built or are being built, some of which won't see regular service for quite some time.

Here's a list of stations that have had work done on them since the Downeaster started.

Brunswick, Maine Street
Bath
Freeport Village
Saco
Durham - UNH
Rockland

4 out of the 6 stations on this list don't even have regular service yet, all of these stations are intended to see future passenger operations, two of them being new Amtrak stations.

Notice I don't even have to count the 'shelter-platform' in OOB to try and round this list out.

Sometimes watching the slow pace of trackword can be discouraging but everything else is coming along just fine. Paradoxically the track rehabilitation is left as the icing on the cake.

[Cowford]

If ME Eastern is offering to run year-round service, they'll be looking for substantial subsidies. They only operate when the tourists are in town and their current ticket pricing is based on those tourists, not everyday "I don't give a crap about the scenery, I'm going to work" commuter pricing . IF BIW is the focal point, I'm assuming that the majority of BIW workers (that would/could take the train) would come from Brunswick? At nine miles, you're looking at a fare of $3/each way, tops, I'd guess.

Problem is, we're talking of towns no larger than 20K population. The population density is just not there for commuter rail. Heck, to my knowledge, none of these towns/cities even has established public bus transit networks.

[gokeefe]

Mr. Cowford,

Having lived in the MidCoast and now being back in Central Maine, I have first hand knowledge that the travel radius for BIW workers is far larger than you might expect. I personally know people who work for BIW and commute from as far away as Skowhegan to the north and Boothbay to the east. Boothbay is probably not the furthest east that there are concentrations of workers. Many of them already car pool driving down Route 1 or I-95/I-295 to get to Bath.

You are entirely correct that there aren't enough workers in the towns close to Bath, they're all spread out across a 50-75 mile radius, and sometimes more around Bath. What they share in common are their routes of travel to get to work. Many of them already use Park and Ride lots along the way to either connect with a company bus or with their carpooling arrangement which are conveniently located along their route of travel in many locations across the state. For the purpose of this discussion concerning Maine Eastern I can confirm there are high concentrations of these facilities right along Route 1. I can also confirm that travel conditions on Route 1 in the winter are routinely horrible in particular right around the time 1st shift is usually on its way to work. This would make train travel all that much more attractive, save on gas and on sanity, maybe even take a nap on the way to work.

There are a number of reasons why I feel confident that Maine Eastern won't be looking for exceptionally large subsidies for commuter services. First is that on the Rockland Branch they probably have a nice base of between 200-1000 potential passengers commuting to Bath everyday. Second to my knowledge their labor costs are very low, compared to Amtrak, because they aren't heavily organized. Third they don't have to pay any operating costs to access the track, as Amtrak does with PAR/GRS because the state already owns and maintains the track. I would venture that after labor their primary incremental costs are maintenance of rolling stock and probably fuel. My impression is that their overhead is not terribly high, they seem to run a very efficient operation in regards to administration etc, much like NNEPRA.

So that leaves them in a good place where they can at a minimum cover their costs and potentially turn a very small profit in the summer when the tourists provide a bump in incremental revenues for almost no increase in incremental costs. Add in the occasional through passenger from the Doweaster, which is a wildcard variable in this equation with a completely unknown potential and you have the makings of a successful formula for service. I would further add to this proposition that many people who work in the Portland area live to the north of the city and not necessarily to the south. Initial ridership out of Rockland travelling to points Brunswick and south may end up being far stronger than expected.

[Cowford]

Initial ridership out of Rockland travelling to points Brunswick and south may end up being far stronger than expected.

What IS expected?

If BIW workers are scattered all over God's green earth, and there are already Park and Ride lots/company buses (through which employees already save gas/sanity/have a snooze [at least the non-drivers!])... why is commuter rail so great?

So ME EASTERN pays NOTHING for their use of the Rockland branch? Do they bill the state for any and all maintenance fees?